[Cold Warrior]

Originally Posted by Kevroqs

As much as I hate bailing out the banks but if we didn't, we would have another depression and it would make the Great Depression in the 30s look like a walk in the park.

We are missing some elements of a depression. 1) high interest rates, 2) high marginal tax rates, 3) government intervention to discourage production.

[equid0x]

Originally Posted by Cold Warrior

We are missing some elements of a depression. 1) high interest rates, 2) high marginal tax rates, 3) government intervention to discourage production.

Statewide shutdowns don't qualify as "Government intervention to discourage production"?

No sales = no production.

Credit interest is quite high. Back in 2000 I had an MBNA card with a 5.1% interest rate. The lowest offers I've had sent to me anytime recently were in the 14%-16% range. Marginal tax rates can be quite high if you're a "high earner."

[RationalExpectations]

Originally Posted by Juxtaposition109

When I started this thread panic hadn't really hit the 702 that hard yet. Now most grocery stores have limited supply, school is cancelled, and most businesses are shut down. Now the question becomes, "How long before the 702 gets back to a somewhat normal state?".

I'm a pessimist.

My forecast is 2022.

Between now and then, my forecast is 2 million dead from Covid-19 in the USA.

[longviewJoe]

Originally Posted by RationalExpectations

I'm a pessimist.

My forecast is 2022.

Between now and then, my forecast is 2 million dead from Covid-19 in the USA.

I hope it's not that high but it's not a crazy forecast because there is no evidence we can stop this thing. All we can do is slow it down or flatten the curve. So unless a cure/vaccine is found I think 1-2m is a reasonable guess.

[Cold Warrior]

Originally Posted by equid0x

Statewide shutdowns don't qualify as "Government intervention to discourage production"?

No sales = no production.

Credit interest is quite high. Back in 2000 I had an MBNA card with a 5.1% interest rate. The lowest offers I've had sent to me anytime recently were in the 14%-16% range. Marginal tax rates can be quite high if you're a "high earner."

I was thinking of, for example, paying dairy operators to pour milk down the drain, and paying farmers not to farm. Mortgage rates are quite low, treasury rates are quite low, corporate bond rates are low. The highest marginal tax rate reached 92%. It is now 37%.

[tijlover]

Originally Posted by longviewJoe

I hope it's not that high but it's not a crazy forecast because there is no evidence we can stop this thing. All we can do is slow it down or flatten the curve. So unless a cure/vaccine is found I think 1-2m is a reasonable guess.

When you've still got 11 states not under shut down...…………………………………….

[equid0x]

Originally Posted by Cold Warrior

I was thinking of, for example, paying dairy operators to pour milk down the drain, and paying farmers not to farm. Mortgage rates are quite low, treasury rates are quite low, corporate bond rates are low. The highest marginal tax rate reached 92%. It is now 37%.

It's all relative to the times, IMHO. Costs across the board are substantially higher than 1929.

Dairy is dumping milk because schools aren't buying. You can't really tell heiffers to scale back production.

Restaurants are closed so there is less demand for food production.

Government has always subsidized the farmers at least since the dust bowl. Factory farms aren't profitable when not subsidized. The public supports the mass production of food, which they will consume anyways, in exchange for keeping prices low.

[oeccscclhjhn]

University of Pittsburgh scientists believe they’ve found potential coronavirus vaccine 4-2-20 [ nypost.com ]

___________________________________________

Pitt Scientists Develop Potential COVID-19 Vaccine 4-2-20 [ pittsburghmagazine.com ]

___________________________________________

The science of soap – here’s how it kills the coronavirus 3-12-20

Alcohol-based disinfectants are also effective, but soap is a highly efficient way of killing the virus when it’s on your skin

Thu 12 Mar 2020 09.40 GMTLast modified on Wed 18 Mar 2020 10.56 GMT

Viruses can be active outside the body for hours, even days. Disinfectants, liquids, wipes, gels and creams containing alcohol are all useful at getting rid of them – but they are not quite as good as normal soap.

When I shared the information above using Twitter, it went viral. I think I have worked out why. Health authorities have been giving us two messages: once you have the virus there are no drugs that can kill it or help you get rid of it. But also, wash your hands to stop the virus spreading. This seems odd. You can’t, even for a million dollars, get a drug for the coronavirus – but your grandmother’s bar of soap kills the virus.

So why does soap work so well on the Sars-CoV-2, the coronavirus and indeed most viruses? The short story: because the virus is a self-assembled nanoparticle in which the weakest link is the lipid (fatty) bilayer. Soap dissolves the fat membrane and the virus falls apart like a house of cards and dies – or rather, we should say it becomes inactive as viruses aren’t really alive.

The slightly longer story is that most viruses consist of three key building blocks: ribonucleic acid (RNA), proteins and lipids. A virus-infected cell makes lots of these building blocks, which then spontaneously self-assemble to form the virus. Critically, there are no strong covalent bonds holding these units together, which means you do not necessarily need harsh chemicals to split those units apart. When an infected cell dies, all these new viruses escape and go on to infect other cells. Some end up also in the airways of lungs.

You can’t, for any price, get a drug for the coronavirus – but your grandmother’s bar of soap kills it
When you cough, or especially when you sneeze, tiny droplets from the airways can fly up to 10 metres. The larger ones are thought to be the main coronavirus carriers and they can go at least two metres.

These tiny droplets end on surfaces and often dry out quickly. But the viruses remain active. Human skin is an ideal surface for a virus. It is “organic” and the proteins and fatty acids in the dead cells on the surface interact with the virus.

When you touch, say, a steel surface with a virus particle on it, it will stick to your skin and hence get transferred on to your hands. If you then touch your face, especially your eyes, nostrils or mouth, you can get infected. And it turns out that most people touch their face once every two to five minutes.

Washing the virus off with water alone might work. But water is not good at competing with the strong, glue-like interactions between the skin and the virus. Water isn’t enough.

Soapy water is totally different. Soap contains fat-like substances known as amphiphiles, some of which are structurally very similar to the lipids in the virus membrane. The soap molecules “compete” with the lipids in the virus membrane. This is more or less how soap also removes normal dirt from the skin.

The soap not only loosens the “glue” between the virus and the skin but also the Velcro-like interactions that hold the proteins, lipids and RNA in the virus together.

Alcohol-based products, which pretty much includes all “disinfectant” products, contain a high-percentage alcohol solution (typically 60-80% ethanol) and kill viruses in a similar fashion. But soap is better because you only need a fairly small amount of soapy water, which, with rubbing, covers your entire hand easily. Whereas you need to literally soak the virus in ethanol for a brief moment, and wipes or rubbing a gel on the hands does not guarantee that you soak every corner of the skin on your hands effectively enough.

So, soap is the best, but do please use alcohol-based sanitiser when soap is not handy or practical.

• Pall Thordarson is a professor of chemistry at the University of New South Wales, Sydney

[OmegaSupreme]

Originally Posted by RationalExpectations

I'm a pessimist.

My forecast is 2022.

Between now and then, my forecast is 2 million dead from Covid-19 in the USA.

No chance it's going to be 2 million. It's estimated that 25% or more are asymptomatic so the real death rate from my calculations is 0.5% or lower. IF everyone in the US got infected, then... do the math.

Worst case scenario, I would say 1.3 million dead.

[Merrily Gather]

Some good news! A friend's husband's work hs been has been picked up. The drug at Emory University has shown incredible lab results against COVID-19. The FDA has approved his drug for testing in humans to see the efficacy. Hopefully his research group will navigate the trials. It could literally save the world.

https://www.pharmiweb.com/press-rele...-potential-tre