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The only way for that to happen is if outside investors get into a buying binge for RE properties. Otherwise there's little to suggest that organic growth will drive up home values as they had done in the past. People just aren't making enough to afford 600K, let alone 800K. Those who force the issue (and there are many NYers who do) will end up paying through the nose.
I disagree. Unless NYC dries up and the job market dies, everything will stay status quo and inflate like the last 50-60 years. The only thing that can stop this is the insane property tax rates. The cycle of immigrants or out of staters moving to NYC and then when settling down and moving to the suburbs will continue IMO.
I disagree. Unless NYC dries up and the job market dies, everything will stay status quo and inflate like the last 50-60 years. The only thing that can stop this is the insane property tax rates. The cycle of immigrants or out of staters moving to NYC and then when settling down and moving to the suburbs will continue IMO.
But there is a difference between prices not dropping and prices appreciating. The best outcome would be for values to stay flat (again, igonoring investor demand which can make valuations unpredictable).
You need to consider that most jobs created in NYC are now low paying jobs - not the kind that will allow one to pay for 600K homes. Nassau's median HH income is around 96K and this will not improve over time nor does it justify such home prices let alone the certainty that the majority of their retirement savings will be tied to their homes.
There have been many reports about these trends. Plus the end of the era of easy credit will curtail people's ability to buy homes that they can less afford. I would say anything 400K and below would be a better price range.
When you factor in inflation, maintenance, updating, taxes, etc. one will be lucky not to have actually lost money in the investment.
But there is a difference between prices not dropping and prices appreciating. The best outcome would be for values to stay flat (again, igonoring investor demand which can make valuations unpredictable).
You need to consider that most jobs created in NYC are now low paying jobs - not the kind that will allow one to pay for 600K homes. Nassau's median HH income is around 96K and this will not improve over time nor does it justify such home prices let alone the certainty that the majority of their retirement savings will be tied to their homes.
There have been many reports about these trends. Plus the end of the era of easy credit will curtail people's ability to buy homes that they can less afford. I would say anything 400K and below would be a better price range.
When you factor in inflation, maintenance, updating, taxes, etc. one will be lucky not to have actually lost money in the investment.
I'm not talking about investment I'm just going off inflation pretty much. What was the HH income 20 yrs ago? I believe second generation immigrants will be working their way into LI as they have for the last several decades. This includes Ex USSR, Asian and of course Hispanic. Asians and Hispanics are very family oriented, unlike Americans, and when they start families and buy houses they won't be looking to go far away for cheap housing.
One of my points is that for many if not most Long Islanders, our lifestyle isn't any different than the suburban dwellers in these other places. We drive everywhere, we eat at chain restaurants, we shop at malls, on average. But, a cookie cutter home from the 60's cost 400K here, where as a new Mcmansion might cost 300K in Ohio outside Youngstown. One of the reasons, although not the only one, is that Youngstown is a depressed dump and NYC is not.
You can find $300-$400K "McMansions" in the suburbs of Denver, Phoenix, Minneapolis, Dallas, Houston, Orlando and these cities are far from depressed dumps. Other than being close to NYC, a reason housing on LI is so expensive is the limited supply of land for housing. Many people from the boroughs who want to stay in the NYC metro will relocate to LI for a more suburban lifestyle. Higher demand + lack of adequate land = higher housing prices
As for the rustbelt, you're mostly right in that the condition of economy of those cities has lead to lower housing prices.
I'm not talking about investment I'm just going off inflation pretty much. What was the HH income 20 yrs ago? I believe second generation immigrants will be working their way into LI as they have for the last several decades. This includes Ex USSR, Asian and of course Hispanic. Asians and Hispanics are very family oriented, unlike Americans, and when they start families and buy houses they won't be looking to go far away for cheap housing.
Let's use 2000 as that is readily available. The median HH income then was $72,000, meaning HH income grew at an annual rate of around 2.5% per year over 13 years. That's a paltry rate and shows that HH income did not even keep up with CPI growth. Those immigrants you are pointing to are not going to see their incomes move higher than inflation.
So a family making $96K/year today will not be able to afford a $600K home in todays prices without paying through their noses and putting their entire nest eggs into the value of their homes. Doesn't sound like a good way to save for retirement.
I was discussing this subject with a friend who lives in Manhattan. She gave me this map and says this is what native Manhattanites use to determine who is out there and where they are in America when deciding where to move.
Garcia1
Add the 180, 000 too 200, 000 in taxes over the next twenty years. Bam their is your 200, 000 increase in property value. Cross your fingers people are getting sick of the high cost already. Add another 200, 000 in property vaulue and add increases in taxes. GOOOD LUCK!!
Garcia1
Add the 180, 000 too 200, 000 in taxes over the next twenty years. Bam their is your 200, 000 increase in property value. Cross your fingers people are getting sick of the high cost already. Add another 200, 000 in property vaulue and add increases in taxes. GOOOD LUCK!!
Those numbers are for your run of the mill know nothing homeowner. I agree , and have stated, taxes are a major problem. I invested in a property I could afford (couple years before boom) and didn't lose my mind during the bubble.
As for desirability of living close to NYC I think illb said it best through a picture. It all comes down to the all mighty dollar and for those that have it they continue to live here. For those with limited funds or no ties to the area they find a better life.
The way you put it out there, it actually it makes it somewhat attractive to pay those taxes knowing you will get it refunded at the end of your stint on LI. Guess where all your tax dollars won't be refunded? Yup cheap developement USA!!! Good luck buddy!!!!
Location: Prince Georges County, MD (formerly Long Island, NY)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Galicia#1
Those numbers are for your run of the mill know nothing homeowner. I agree , and have stated, taxes are a major problem. I invested in a property I could afford (couple years before boom) and didn't lose my mind during the bubble.
As for desirability of living close to NYC I think illb said it best through a picture. It all comes down to the all mighty dollar and for those that have it they continue to live here. For those with limited funds or no ties to the area they find a better life.
The way you put it out there, it actually it makes it somewhat attractive to pay those taxes knowing you will get it refunded at the end of your stint on LI. Guess where all your tax dollars won't be refunded? Yup cheap developement USA!!! Good luck buddy!!!!
I think that's a rather reductive way of looking at it. To say that those who leave only do so because they can't afford is rather misleading (please correct me if I misunderstood you).
Many people who leave cite things besides prices, such as congestion.
I know a lot of people who were well off on Long Island, but still left because they were happier elsewhere. I mean, I don't want to call people out here, but there are even posters here who left affluent Long Island neighborhoods to go down south.
Regarding ILLIB's picture, it definitely gave me a laugh, but the only thing it proved to me was how myopic New York's view of the rest of the country is
I'm not saying Long Island is horrible, I'm just saying it's not for everyone-- regardless of economics.
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The Map on What's What in America
