Phoenix, the most unaffordable "affordable" place to live (bankrupt, universities)

[wilberry]

I remember living at Mrs. MendelBrights Boarding house in Mayberry with Barney Fife as my Neighbor,
yep could not afford a new car until I was 40! things sure have changed since the 60s. ( joking ) never lived in Mayberry but my first was studio Apt in Albq was $150. a long time after the 60's had to ride a bike to the University

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...?ex=2942698500

last year's price $79 K for a bed Condo in Sun City.

now they want you to $ 1,620 in HOA fees to live in this retirement Condo!

[Potential_Landlord]

Many thoughtful remarks regarding the state of our RE boom. I agree about all the potential issues mentioned, I am just not sure the situation is ripe for a downturn yet. I am very impressed how we all point to the same issues in this cycle (overbuilding for investors, rather than generally bad mortgage underwriting standards). We would need to see consumer spending to decisively turn down. Not seeing that yet, PCE is very solid. We're 12 years from last low, there should be a couple more years of spending in the tank.

Also, the company who most voraciously gobbles up RE will traditionally goes bankrupt. History and my personal ideas for this coming downturn:
2008 downturn: Lehman Bothers
1990s downturn: Olympia & York
2025ish downturn: Blackrock, Blackstone???

[thinkalot]

Originally Posted by wilberry

I remember living at Mrs. MendelBrights Boarding house in Mayberry with Barney Fife as my Neighbor,
yep could not afford a new car until I was 40! things sure have changed since the 60s. ( joking ) never lived in Mayberry but my first was studio Apt in Albq was $150. a long time after the 60's had to ride a bike to the University

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...?ex=2942698500

last year's price $79 K for a bed Condo in Sun City.

now they want you to $ 1,620 in HOA fees to live in this retirement Condo!

That $1620 a month includes meals (I think one a day) and housekeeping.

[john3232]

Originally Posted by phetaroi

And I'm not so sure that's very different than the way it has always been.

I remember how my aunt and uncle had to scrimp and save to pay their monthy mortgage bill back in the 1950s; it was something like $50.

I remember well having to have a roommate for 3 years when I first got into the work world to be able to afford rent and save a little bit.

The numbers may be different, what many have to do isn't very different.

I agree.

But what caught a lot of people off-guard (imo) is the speed in which the cost of housing shot up. It happened overnight. The pandemic tossed a huge monkey wrench on the housing market. No one saw this coming.

The costs of housing will settle down but the Phx metro. esp the more desirable areas will never be inexpensive again. You're going to need money to live here. Not Cal. money but it's going to be tough making ends meet on 30k-40k unless you've got roommates.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

Also, the company who most voraciously gobbles up RE will traditionally goes bankrupt. History and my personal ideas for this coming downturn:
2008 downturn: Lehman Bothers
1990s downturn: Olympia & York
2025ish downturn: Blackrock, Blackstone???

Late '80s/early '90s: Charles Keating, Lincoln Savings, and the S&L crisis. I recall that the Phoenix area took a pretty huge economic hit during this time, and it wasn't only because Keating & his ventures were based here.

Originally Posted by john3232

The costs of housing will settle down but the Phx metro. esp the more desirable areas will never be inexpensive again. You're going to need money to live here. Not Cal. money but it's going to be tough making ends meet on 30k-40k unless you've got roommates.

Even some places in CA are less expensive than metro Phoenix. Trouble is, they're among the least desirable of all places to live in CA (mainly desert locations like Needles, Blythe, El Centro, Brawley, etc.). So for those who moved here simply because they like the desert & cheap living, they can still have their desired lifestyle in the above mentioned towns. There's no room for them in Phoenix anymore.

[wilberry]

Phoenix has nearly 3,100 homeless people in 2022, up from 771 in 2014. Glendale also saw a big increase, having 406 homeless people in 2022 compared to 39 people. Mesa had 55 people living on the streets in 2014 but now has 451. The study noted there wasn't a count in 2021 because of the COVID-19 pandemic

[Maroon197]

Originally Posted by wilberry

Phoenix has nearly 3,100 homeless people in 2022, up from 771 in 2014. Glendale also saw a big increase, having 406 homeless people in 2022 compared to 39 people. Mesa had 55 people living on the streets in 2014 but now has 451. The study noted there wasn't a count in 2021 because of the COVID-19 pandemic

There is a massive homeless camp on Jefferson near the Capitol. We seem to be fast tracking this whole becoming the next LA thing (minus the good parts like weather and beaches).

For anyone who is curious, you can street view starting at Jefferson and 9th Ave and then head south down 9th from there. It has grown significantly even just in the past month since the street view pictures were taken.

[john3232]

Recently I noticed a small group of young people getting high and hanging out not far from where I live in Mesa. The fact there is now a tent makes me think they aren't planning to leave. So, I called the Maricopa Sheriff's Dept.

If people want to get high that's their business but I won't *enable anyone. I understand many like to think of the "homeless" as strictly a cost of living issue. But a large number of those on the streets have a substance abuse problem. Of course they are homeless. Being an addict is often a full-time job.

Those I see in E. Mesa are young and I suspect using meth. It's cheap and readily available here.
https://illuminaterecovery.com/blog/...oblem-arizona/


* I've hired recovering addicts/alcoholics to do landscaping and haul-away jobs. But they get one chance. Don't show up and I won't call them again.

[singlegirlinaz]

Originally Posted by bobsell

Out of touch.

How can someone save up to get the down payment for the condo when the rent they're currently paying jumps 20% and they got a 5% raise at work?

This assumes one is able to get and keep a good paying job. We are already in the first three months of a recession and the layoffs are coming.

Guess they need to dip into their trust fund /s

For me it was either spending on takeouts, new clothes, mani-pedis, gym membership and frequent trips to California, or cutting out those expenses, working extra hours and doing most of those things myself.

The pandemic threw most of us into survival mode. Since then I started exercising at home, doing my own cooking, my own mani-pedis and only going to California to see my family and staying with them instead of a hotel.

You'd be shocked how all those things add up quickly.

I'll never rent an apartment again because of the constant rent hikes, bad neighbors and general property neglect.

I know things are difficult and unfair but it doesn't do any good to make excuses, blame boomers or other things some posters seem to be habitual at doing on c-d.

If you don't do something about your financial situation, you're part of the problem instead of the solution.

[singlegirlinaz]

Originally Posted by john3232

Sigh… now the difference between you and singlegirlinaz of course is she had a plan and the ability to go through with it. You on the other hand...

Thank you.

I could have rented for the rest of my life and kept digging a deeper hole or be more prudent. I chose the latter, and I don't have a trust fund, poor me.