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Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,277 posts, read 2,802,638 times
Reputation: 1932
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cjseliga
Strange how Beijing has significantly colder average temperatures than Wuhan and nearly twice as many people as Wuhan, yet have far fewer accumulated infection cases. It flies against this logic being presented, about the virus surviving longer in cooler temperatures. Unless of course the temperatures were somehow flipped this year and it's population radically reduced. Considering there was a 6 week delay before any serious action, this would have spread across China and the world, which of course it did. The quarantine actions would have been way too late to be effective in other provinces and around the world.
If there are around 80 direct flights from Wuhan to Beijing daily, then the chances seem that within the early days of the outbreak, someone would have got on a plane to Beijing and spread the infection from there. Otherwise they could have taken a train or bus to Beijing and other provinces. The virus was obviously spreading like wildfire, otherwise there wouldn't be such extreme reaction to it. That seems probable within the space of 1 week of the outbreak commencing. Thus in terms of the infection spread, Beijing and other regions would have likely only been one week behind Wuhan in terms of the infection spread commencement date.
Remember that quarantine action was only taken about 6 weeks after the first reported case. This means the virus had at least 5 weeks to spread unchecked in all other regions of China and around the world. Yet the numbers in Beijing and other regions simply don'e reflect that. On that basis, the numbers China has put out, just don't seem even remotely realistic, nor believable. I hope I'm wrong.
Regarding temperature, I think the example of Malaysia today with 190 cases today of which most trace to one singular religious gathering kills Trump's argument that the virus will not last into the Spring. Temperature here is in the 80's and there was no problem with mass transmission.
I am in complete agreement that something is odd about how the rest of China never really got the virus. Sure seems to be spreading fast to every corner of the US and Europe.
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,277 posts, read 2,802,638 times
Reputation: 1932
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goodnight
Just looking at Washington state as an indicator we are going to be out of beds and healthcare workers, they need to be building additional capacity any way they can. Some places are asking nurses to come out of retirement and in Seattle they are looking for additional facilities.
I read the article on the nurse and doctor in China, both 29 years old but it seems they were compromised because of the long hours, sad story.
I hope some out of the box thinking is going on.
One idea I have is to look at the State University system.
For example in Michigan....I think Central Michigan University is a good case to consider.
Dormitory capacity is 6327 beds with complete food support already in place. If students are already sent home from classes...
It would be far quicker to modify an existing operation like this then to build from scratch. We wouldn't even be past the permitting stage by the time the whole thing is over.
Excellent story in Wapo about how viruses spread and can be minimized. Excellent simulations....we are still looking more like the worst graph but we getting better informed.
Why outbreaks like coronavirus
spread exponentially, and
how to “flatten the curve”
This so-called exponential curve has experts worried. If the number of cases were to continue to double every three days, there would be about a hundred million cases in the United States by May.
That is math, not prophecy. The spread can be slowed, public health professionals say, if people practice “social distancing” by avoiding public spaces and generally limiting their movement.
Still, without any measures to slow it down, covid-19 will continue to spread exponentially for months. To understand why, it is instructive to simulate the spread of a fake disease through a population.
We will call our fake disease simulitis. It spreads even more easily than covid-19: whenever a healthy person comes into contact with a sick person, the healthy person becomes sick, too.
Regarding temperature, I think the example of Malaysia today with 190 cases today of which most trace to one singular religious gathering kills Trump's argument that the virus will not last into the Spring. Temperature here is in the 80's and there was no problem with mass transmission.
Yeah, I'm not so sure that the virus is seasonal either and it will probably continue spreading into the Northern Hemisphere summer, my "sciency" brain also wonders though if it's not only temperature but sun angle?
Maybe as the sun gets higher as summer starts if could/might have some effect on killing the virus on outdoor surfaces.
Excellent story in Wapo about how viruses spread and can be minimized. Excellent simulations....we are still looking more like the worst graph but we getting better informed.
Why outbreaks like coronavirus
spread exponentially, and
how to “flatten the curve”
Yes, that is interesting. One big take-away is that quarantines are useless, they just delay the inevitable. So the idea that we should lock down the US like Italy has done may not be the best thing to do, at least according to the WaPo result.
The WaPo result depends on social distancing, which means still no big public events and you cannot really social distance in airports, train stations or on planes or trains, but we all need those things. So there are issues to work out with social distancing.
Regarding temperature, I think the example of Malaysia today with 190 cases today of which most trace to one singular religious gathering kills Trump's argument that the virus will not last into the Spring. Temperature here is in the 80's and there was no problem with mass transmission.
I am in complete agreement that something is odd about how the rest of China never really got the virus. Sure seems to be spreading fast to every corner of the US and Europe.
There are going to be exceptions and concentrations even if it is seasonal because it is novel and there is no immunity. Travel complicates the picture too, maybe so much that seasonality won't even matter much.
The thing to watch is random community spread. It still does appear that the worst hit areas are a band in the northern hemisphere where max temps are from around 45-65 degrees right now. We see it in Italy where the case concentration is in the cooler north regions while southern Italy, Sicily are not as hard hit. That pattern is evident in the US as well where the sunbelt has relatively fewer cases and limited spread and the activity is concentrated in the above temp regions on the coasts.
If the theory plays out, it should be spreading with abandon northward into the US upper midwest into April and May and begin to fade in June, July. Of course, absent much testing, we have no idea what is going on.
Less than a day after hitting 150,000 confirmed cases and we're already up to 160,000.
I expect this is what it would look like watching a flu outbreak happen. It starts small but keeps doubling. I expect that the actually total of cases must be at least 10 times the number of the cases we know about.
Thanks for articulating this. According to CNN.com as of a few minutes ago, there are 2,800 coronavirus cases and 58 deaths. That means the death rate is 0.020% as of today. People should vet who they listen to and believe. Also, they should do the math themselves to vet what is being stated.
The post I originally questioned stated that the death rate from the flu of 2019-2020 (in the US), was only a fraction of Corona. Wait, what?? Unless that poster has information that no one else has, that is not true according to documented deaths as of 3/14/20 from Coronavirus in the US. Maybe the poster meant to say the death rate of the seasonal flu of 2019-2020 is "potentially" only a fraction of the number of deaths predicted to occur from Coronavirus? We don't know. All we know is what they actually stated as if it was a documented fact; but it's actually currently UNTRUE and misleading.
When the population is already in a panic, it helps no one to hear fear-inducing declarations of death and doom. Understandably, this virus is to be taken seriously because it has the "potential" to be catastrophic but that should be communicated without using hyperbolic and over the topic predictions.
Dr Fauci testified before Congress, “ at least 10x more lethal than seasonal flu, even if the mortality rate drops far below the WHO estimate of 3.4%”.
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,277 posts, read 2,802,638 times
Reputation: 1932
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe the Photog
I don't know what your resume looks like, but I will trust Dr. Anthony Fauci or some experts at John Hopkins and none of them that I see think it will be on the downturn by the end of April
You mention smokers as being a high risk group and, of course, you are right. But so is obesity which affects some 45% of US adults. High blood pressure is another risk factor as well as diabetes.
Hand washing is always a good idea, but it is also an airborne virus, too. In fact, Michael Osterholm questions how much hand washing really helps stop the spreading of this disease at around the 44 minute mark here
Thanks for this link. Watching entire program now. This sounds like a very knowledgeable person.
Will require 48 million hospitalizations. How are we going to do this and pay for it.
The word from Italy was the people in the hospital were largely people in their 40s. This means we should stop calling this an old person disease. I gather the old people die fast from the disease and are not occupying many of the hospital beds.
Closing schools causes more harm than good in this case.
........Working parents have to stay home to watch kids
........Lost income for the parents
........Lost work for especially nurses
Much of the middle discussion is about deer and worry with consumption of deer meat. (Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a prion disease that affects deer, elk, reindeer, sika deer and moose.) https://www.cdc.gov/prions/cwd/index.html
New statement is 4,000 health care workers in China were infected. If the US has far more cases then China then we should expect to have many many thousands of our health care workers will be infected.
Speaker is from Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy
Appears to be part of University of Minnesota
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