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The UK is considering taking a very different approach and that approach is based on the theory of herd immunity. If 60% of the population acquires natural immunity through exposure to the virus, it should go away, based on what is known from past experience with things like measles in the pre-vaccine era. This would mean quarantining those at risk (older people and those with underlying health conditions) and allowing the people who are at the lowest possible risk of death or serious complications to remain out and about, at school, in public etc. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/its...rus-2020-03-14
This approach would also reduce the negative economic impacts as we would not need to close everything to the public. I suspect most people would not favor this approach but it makes sense in many ways.
First of all, "Marketwatch" is not a scientific journal. Secondly, according to the article, this is only a proposal and not everyone goes along with it. "Patrick Vallance, the U.K.’s chief scientific adviser, said herd immunity is an option the government is exploring in its effort to grapple with the coronavirus-borne illness COVID-19. . . Former U.K. Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt criticized the herd-immunity approach and said it was unwise to allow schools to remain open and people to gather and said Britain should take a more aggressive approach along the lines currently being forged by the U.S."
Finally, there is nothing, I repeat nothing in that article that references any past experience with measles, and in point of fact, measles INCIDENCE did not go down until vaccine was introduced. In point of fact, the UK lost its "measles elimination" status last year because cases rose again due to the debacle with the Andrew Wakefield paper. https://publichealthengland.exposure...tion-in-the-uk https://www.healio.com/infectious-di...cials-announce
So we know there are what 80k cases in China and 3k deaths? Most are over 80. .037%
Italy is like 5% death rate.
The average age death of CV is over 80.
Its a virus that affects the lungs so those that are immune compromised and old are at risk. Those also at risk....Smokers. Anyone ever been to China or Italy? They smoke like crazy.
CDC says wash your hands to prevent it. Italy is pretty dirty and when you smoke you're putting your hand basically in your mouth.
I'm not saying there's a connection but.......
Also, when that Hurricane hit Houston a few years ago....there were going to be 1000's upon 1'000's of deaths. There were 103 deaths. While sad, not nearly the tally the news would have you think.
Odds are that there are probably thousands more CV infected than what we know and the death rate is much smaller than what we think. Media just wants to make money. My prediction is that by the end of April everything is on the down turn, Memorial Day things are back to normal and right after the 4th Trump gets a trade deal with China and the market is roaring again.
Just think how much better off we'd be if martial law had been put into place a couple weeks earlier!
No other government in the world is better prepared for something like this than we are.
To do what some in here suggest is absolutely impossible.
It's nothing but armchair quarterbacks with hindsight to make themselves feel like they're the smartest on the planet, when it makes them look like fools.
Not here!
2700 cases with 58 dead. That's less about 2% and 1/2 of those were in one nursing home. I pray it'll be on the low side of the .1-1.0% range they predict.
Again, I'd rather be in the US than any other country. Who would prefer to be somewhere else?
I'd rather be in Taiwan, they started social distancing and quarantines long before we did, they have more hospitals per capita and more protective gear and masks than we do.
Quote:
As of Friday, Taiwan has reported 50 confirmed cases of coronavirus, and one death, out of a population of around 23 million.
The island has seen a relatively low spread of the novel coronavirus despite its proximity and numerous links to China, where the virus was first detected and has infected more than 80,000 people. Taiwan has also had to contend with political pressure and possible misinformation from China.
In a paper this month in the Journal of the American Medical Association, or JAMA, Wang and two colleagues listed 124 actions that Taiwan's authorities took starting in December when they sensed the looming threat — and the rest of the world seemed to be looking the other way. [url="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/13/814709530/with-odds-against-it-taiwan-keeps-coronavirus-corralled"]https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/13/814709530/with-odds-against-it-taiwan-keeps-coronavirus-corralled
I'd rather be in Taiwan, they started social distancing and quarantines long before we did, they have more hospitals per capita and more protective gear and masks than we do.
Taiwan's cases would equate to about 750 in the US, so yeah, they're containing it better, assuming all numbers are accurate.
Funny how recently some posters were talking about the US having too many hospital beds! I think the different countries have different criteria for hospitalization.
I noticed a math issue with your percentage. You didn't translate it from hundredths (like you get dividing the 58 deaths by the 2,800 confirmed cases) to a percent. In America it is currently 2.07%, not 0.020%. Still rather high compared to the average year of a particular flu strain.
To be very specific, you can point to the much lauded and generally underwhelming Swine Flu "pandemic" which really turned out to be a typical flu season with lots of added hype. World wide, the Swine Flu infected. But sure, it killed some people. Lots of them actually. The numbers have been revised over time as more research as been done on it.
If we go with the maximum estimates, which is being insanely generous:
1.4 billion people got the Swine Flu in 2009.
575,000 people died.
575K / 1.4 billion = 0.0004107 = 0.04%
China is the only place on earth where the numbers are even slightly helpful:
80,844 total cases
3,199 deaths
66,912 recovered
10,733 active
So with the majority of cases having come to a conclusion, we might actually be able to get some useful numbers.
66,912 + 3,199 = 70,111 cases that have reached a final conclusion.
3,199 / 70,111 = 0.0456 = 4.56% death rate.
So the only place on earth where the majority of cases have reached a conclusion has a death rate of 4.56%. Trouble is, that's China and China has a government that is constantly lying about pretty much everything. But if we take the Chinese numbers seriously, the expected death rate is apparently 4.56%.
This little bug is just getting started. If it infects the same number of people as Swine Flu -- 1.4 billion people -- and the 4.56% death rate holds true, then 63.84 million people will die. The experts are throwing around death rate estimates that closer to 2%, but that's based on guesses, not solid outcomes thus far. And 2% still kills a crazy-large number of people. This genie is out of the bottle. Odds are, if you're a human being, you're gonna get this. If we can slow it down, maybe we'll have a vaccine in the works before we get into the hundreds of millions of people infected. Hopefully we can keep the number of active cases under healthcare capacity. But that's really the best we can hope for at this point.
Dr Fauci is putting it at about 1% which makes it 10 times more deadly than the flu. The real issue here is not having our health care system overwhelmed which reduces peoples chance of getting proper care and drives up the morbidity rate.
I understand the differences and the implications. That is not my point. My point is that a professor from Johns Hopkins is saying something different than Dr. Fauci. That is the problem, that we are getting mixed messages. I don't know who is right but I would tend to think that the professor is closer to the research than an administrator.
As I said, the epidemiologists need to get together and get their stories straight.
............. My prediction is that by the end of April everything is on the down turn, Memorial Day things are back to normal and right after the 4th Trump gets a trade deal with China and the market is roaring again.
My prediction is that it will be much worse by the end of April than you can possibly imagine because the number of infections will continue to double twice a week.
Double 2K about 10 times..............
Flu, which has a vaccine used by 169M Americans yearly, kills 12,000.
There is no vaccine for Coronavirus.......
There is no way to know how protective antibodies from earlier contracted coronavirus will be - probably not because this is a form of a cold virus - and how many are immune to a cold - or any earlier version of the flu, for that matter? And, of course, this is neither the cold nor the flu - but a bit of a hybrid.
It is not "a bit of a hybrid". It has no relation to flu at all. We will not know how long antibodies will last until more time passes. With SARS CoV 1, antibodies have been shown to persist for some time:
"Our finding of generally reduced but persistent MERS-CoV antibody responses even at 34 months suggests the potential for longer lasting antibody-mediated protective immunity against reinfection."
Of course they quantify it by saying it cannot be certain that the antibodies are protective.
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