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Old 03-17-2020, 02:18 PM
 
Location: Chicago, IL
9,701 posts, read 5,115,103 times
Reputation: 4270

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Quote:
Originally Posted by TMSRetired View Post
People still are thinking in terms of linear, not exponential.

The doubling was a conservative model. I've seen 4x reported as well.
Doubling every 4 days is exponential, not linear. We might have been to conservative on how frequently it doubles.

 
Old 03-17-2020, 02:18 PM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
32,113 posts, read 34,739,914 times
Reputation: 15093
We voted for Trump because we wanted to burn the house down!

But I never thought for a second I'd actually be inside the house.

Chaos isn't so fun anymore.
 
Old 03-17-2020, 02:19 PM
 
Location: NMB, SC
43,128 posts, read 18,290,317 times
Reputation: 34996
Quote:
Originally Posted by EddieB.Good View Post
Doubling every 4 days is exponential, not linear.
I know that. I said people are thinking linear...1,2,3,4 like the flu.

Doubling is 2x but I have seen 4x and our numbers are more than 2x at this point.

I've notice that many posters are "wow"ing the fast increases.
 
Old 03-17-2020, 02:21 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
16,911 posts, read 10,596,615 times
Reputation: 16439
Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
We voted for Trump because we wanted to burn the house down!

But I never thought for a second I'd actually be inside the house.

Chaos isn't so fun anymore.
Trump needs to shut the house down. I must say I’m a bit disappointed.
 
Old 03-17-2020, 02:22 PM
 
Location: Lahaina, Hi.
6,384 posts, read 4,834,185 times
Reputation: 11326
Quote:
Originally Posted by lilyflower3191981 View Post
You are right,

This is what it says


Vaccines against pneumonia, such as pneumococcal vaccine and Haemophilus influenza type B (Hib) vaccine, do not protect against coronavirus
You are right Mikala,
I understand that it doesn't protect you against CATCHING the virus. My question was that if you HAVE the Corona virus, would it help protect you against the pneumonia aspect of the infection?
The article Lilyflower cited suggests that it WOULD be helpful in preventing a bacterial lung infection.
 
Old 03-17-2020, 02:22 PM
 
7,447 posts, read 2,835,397 times
Reputation: 4922
Quote:
Originally Posted by TMSRetired View Post
I know that. I said people are thinking linear...1,2,3,4 like the flu.

Doubling is 2x but I have seen 4x and our numbers are more than 2x at this point.

I've notice that many posters are "wow"ing the fast increases.
How do you explain the reality to someone with no understanding of math? Frustrating.

The difference in time for it to spread through the entire population of say Wuhan at 11 million people, and the entire united states at 327 million people at its current growth rate would be:

11
22 4 days
44 8 days
88 12 days
176 16 days
352 20 days

Having many many more people only buys you a small amount of additional time. A couple weeks, maybe 3 - that's it.
 
Old 03-17-2020, 02:23 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
16,911 posts, read 10,596,615 times
Reputation: 16439
Quote:
Originally Posted by TMSRetired View Post
I know that. I said people are thinking linear...1,2,3,4 like the flu.

Doubling is 2x but I have seen 4x and our numbers are more than 2x at this point.

I've notice that many posters are "wow"ing the fast increases.
That’s because other countries hunkered down and our people are going to the beach and licking toilet seats.
 
Old 03-17-2020, 02:23 PM
 
7,447 posts, read 2,835,397 times
Reputation: 4922
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJJersey View Post
That’s because other countries hunkered down and our people are going to the beach and licking toilet seats.
Those toilet seats ain't gonna lick themselves that's for sure.
 
Old 03-17-2020, 02:25 PM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
25,581 posts, read 17,298,699 times
Reputation: 37349
By April 28th, there will be, or have been, 364,102,440 Coronavirus infections in America.
We won't really get there, of course, but the method I used to compute it is sound. Here goes.


We had - as of yesterday - 4704 cases.
The 10 day average of increases is 31%.
Roll that figure forward until the end of April and we will have infected every single person in America.


By the end of March there will be/have been 234,860 cases. About 1.6% will die, according to current US statistics.

I am going to post a new figure every day, which will represent the new corrected figure.

Stay away from other people. There is no vaccine and no cure.
 
Old 03-17-2020, 02:26 PM
 
Location: Newport Beach, California
39,230 posts, read 27,618,080 times
Reputation: 16073
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJJersey View Post
That’s because other countries hunkered down and our people are going to the beach and licking toilet seats.
Licking toilet seats is an extreme example, I don't think the Europeans are taking this seriously either. How they handle the crisis scares me too.
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