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social distancing will only work as long as people are exercising the habit. As soon as we go "back to normal," we have 2-3 months before we are right back to panic, hoarding behavior, and collapsing markets. Nothing is going to flatten under normal conditions until everyone has been vaccinated. It doesn't bode well for the economy.
"The Economy" as it was before is done for.
But many parts of our economy are doing fine. People are still reading the news, ordering stuff, eating food, paying utilities, playing instruments, watching TV, buying phones and computers and on and on and on.
There are so many unknowns - but the fact is, whether people believe it or not, Apple Stores and many (most) of the factories in China are back online. I don't think anyone can claim that Bejing or Shenzen is getting hammered. Why not?
Well, we really don't know these things. If things are as they look, the West simply does not know how to deal with such things.
But even that - even 60-90 days from now the combination of:
1. Plenty of Medical Supplies
2. Known rights and wrongs about exactly how to treat infected people
3. Unlimited testing - including instant and antibodies testing.
4. Better knowledge of possibly mitigating drugs and medicines
Should make SOME difference. Since regular vaccines (Flu) are only 40-70% effective, even just a vaccine won't stop panic and let people go traveling, etc.
It will take even more...maybe a combination of all the above and a special vaccine based on the plasma of previously infected.....
I suspect all of the above.
If these things were all in place I think many of us would take our chances - knowing that we are not venturing into the unknown.
But it would be foolish to pack Churches at Easter.....when none of these things are in place.
Good News: Cases grew by 15% today. That's a lot better than the 30% we were seeing.
Yesterday was 14.3%. If we manage to lock in 15%, then it will take 5 days for the number of cases to double.
Both the articles above are a bit old. They are keeping everyone on lockdown because they dont want hospital to be overworked, or overcrowded. But if this thing is benign, how hospitals get jammed?
All the celebs, and MSM are putting out advertising assuring everyone to stay indoors, and work on personal projects. This is getting retarded. I want to eat some fine dining. Plus the local economy is in shambles, and the little people are being hurt financially the most.
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Do you believe in the Murray model numbers or what is your guess on final numbers?
