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Right... sweden is manipulating the numbers... right.
I don't think Sweden manipulated the numbers. The overall numbers are not good:
Looking at the total pandemic numbers:
Deaths:
Sweden 14,615 Norway 799 Finland 978
Sweden has about the same population as Norway and Finland together. All three countries have a 7 day moving average of deaths now at zero.
Overall Cases Sweden has over 1 million the other countries a little over 100,000 each. Letting the virus rip through the country perhaps they have herd immunity now. Since the real case number is probably much higher.
Question is was it worth 12,000 extra deaths to keep more things open in Sweden?
See post 17, LOOK at the graphs, the affectiveness of the vaccine is there in black & white, the fact that it is so clear in the UK is because 90% of adults in the UK have now had the jab. Thanks to that we are NOT in any kind of lockdown here at all.
You are arguing that vaccines help decouple deaths from cases, I think. I don't disagree with that.
What I take issue with is the claim that "the drop in deaths can only be attributed to the vaccines." That is obviously false, since many places (Sweden is not the only one), showed pretty much the same drop in deaths at the same exact time the previous year, without vaccines.
Vaccines are doing a lot of good here, but there's no need to imbue them with magical powers or to deny other factors that are clearly also influencing the better outcomes.
Last edited by tribecavsbrowns; 07-24-2021 at 07:43 PM..
You are arguing that vaccines help decouple deaths from cases, I think. I don't disagree with that.
What I take issue with is the claim that "the drop in deaths can only be attributed to the vaccines." That is obviously false, since many places (Sweden is not the only one), showed pretty much the same drop in deaths at the same exact time the previous year, without vaccines.
Vaccines are doing a lot of good here, but there's no need to imbue them with magical powers or to deny other factors that are clearly also influencing the better outcomes.
they DID NOT just drop, The vaccine deaths only dropped after countries went into lockdown and infections dropped, less infections, less deaths. Its only SINCE the vaccine that the death rates have NOT gone up when the infection rates have. Thats the reason why DESPITE the Delta variant increasing the infection rate in the UK, the government did NOT bring in lockdown restrictions - only because the vaccines stopped the death rates from climbing they way they have for previous waves IN ALL COUNTRIES.
Compare the 'daily new cases' bar graph with the 'daily deaths' bar graph, can you see how they are the same shape for the first two 'waves', can you see how the third 'Delta variant' wave looks VERY different on the 'daily deaths' bar graph this time, its practically flat!?
The UK is probably further ahead with its vaccination program than just about anywhere else at this moment, take a look at what its done to the death rate during this 'Delta' wave?
Remember we have NOT gone into lockdown during this 'wave', unless a new 'vaccine resistant' strain comes along it looks like we are about to finally see the end of the pandemic in the UK. If anybody else want's to join us then get a high percentage of your population vaccinated!
The latest figures show that the vaccine has decreased the chances of dying from Covid from around 1 in 100 cases to 1 in 1600 cases.
Then why didn't they "benefit from that positive externality" in spring 2020, when they averaged almost 100 deaths a day? Why did it take till summer for deaths to drop to just a few a day? I remember the Nordic countries getting a lot of attention for their people being among the earliest to voluntarily make "lockdown-like" changes to their routines (it was visible in movement data from Google and Apple, as I recall). But again, the deaths still didn't get really low until the summer.
The better answer, then, looks to be seasonal changes. I'm sorry, but crediting Sweden's summer lull in 2020 to lockdowns in other countries when they themselves did not do one is just not compelling.
If what I've said above is basically true, then the summer lull in 2021 would be due to a combination of seasonal effects and vaccines, which I think makes sense.
First, I never claimed there wasn't a summer lull last year. But, the question is how it was possible that Sweden saw so few deaths last summer when countries like the US (which also had a summer lull last year) were still seeing deaths (albeit less than the spring). In my opinion, a big part of that was because Northern Europe locked down so hard.
If it were the case that Norway, Denmark, Finland, Germany, etc. didn't lockdown, I do not think Sweden would have fared as well as they did.
This summer is a different story because Covid is now way more transmissible.
There is zero "summer lull" in Asia or South America, or in many countries without a high vaccination rate. I am certain that the reason Sweden isn't having a summer like Indonesia is because of the vaccine.
Over all in Sweden, thirteen thousand people have died from covid-19. In Norway, which has a population that is half the size of Sweden’s, and where stricter lockdowns were enforced, about seven hundred people have died.
They likely have more natural immunity than others due to their smart approach. I wish we would have followed their lead.
Comparison between Sweden and the US is nonsensical for multiple reasons already discussed multiple times. The bottom line is they did much worse than their peers - Norway, Denmark, etc
First, I never claimed there wasn't a summer lull last year. But, the question is how it was possible that Sweden saw so few deaths last summer when countries like the US (which also had a summer lull last year) were still seeing deaths (albeit less than the spring). In my opinion, a big part of that was because Northern Europe locked down so hard.
If it were the case that Norway, Denmark, Finland, Germany, etc. didn't lockdown, I do not think Sweden would have fared as well as they did.
This summer is a different story because Covid is now way more transmissible.
There is zero "summer lull" in Asia or South America, or in many countries without a high vaccination rate. I am certain that the reason Sweden isn't having a summer like Indonesia is because of the vaccine.
I didn't say or imply that you did claim that. What you did claim was that "any success Sweden is seeing now is due to the vaccines," and I disagreed with that claim because it sure looks to me like there is also a strong seasonal element, and my support for that is that deaths also went down something like 97% last year in the summer from the spring peak, without vaccines, and I haven't seen a good reason for that other than seasonal variation.
I don't buy your theory about "positive externalities" from lockdown countries, but for the sake of argument, I'll play along. You still didn't answer my question about why the effects of these "positive externalities" appear to have been absent in spring 2020 and only to have taken effect in the summer.
I have answers to your questions but I'd appreciate an answer to my question first.
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