Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I didn't say or imply that you did claim that. What you did claim was that "any success Sweden is seeing now is due to the vaccines," and I disagreed with that claim because it sure looks to me like there is also a strong seasonal element, and my support for that is that deaths also went down something like 97% last year in the summer from the spring peak, without vaccines, and I haven't seen a good reason for that other than seasonal variation.
I don't buy your theory about "positive externalities" from lockdown countries, but for the sake of argument, I'll play along. You still didn't answer my question about why the effects of these "positive externalities" appear to have been absent in spring 2020 and only to have taken effect in the summer.
I have answers to your questions but I'd appreciate an answer to my question first.
I don't think the effect was absent in spring 2020; I believe they could not have got the initial outbreak under control as quickly as they did if it were not for the fact that the surrounding countries locked down.
What we saw in the US during spring 2020 was that the spread was perpetuated by people travelling from virus hotspots back to their home states and cities (on spring break and other travels). Despite the fact that some US states and cities locked down, others didn't and people were free travel between the areas.
Luckily for Sweden, the surrounding countries - and Europe broadly - locked down. By the time travel started ramping up again, the seasonality effect kicked it.
Summer 2021 is completely different because the delta variant is way more transmissible. There are dozens of examples that prove that this new strain does not care about seasons.
Sweden, of course, was maligned in 2020 for foregoing a strict lockdown. The Guardian called its approach “a catastrophe” in the making, while CBS News said Sweden had become “an example of how not to handle COVID-19.”
Despite these criticisms, Sweden’s laissez-faire approach to the pandemic continues today. In contrast to its European neighbors, Sweden is welcoming tourists. Businesses and schools are open with almost no restrictions. And as far as masks are concerned, not only is there no mandate in place, Swedish health officials are not even recommending them.
What are the results of Sweden’s much-derided laissez-faire policy? Data show the 7-day rolling average for COVID deaths yesterday was zero (see below). As in nada. And it’s been at zero for about a week now.
By contrast, New Zealand did have lockdowns and mandated mask wearing and social distancing. We closed our borders and those who were allowed in were forced into quarantine for two weeks. And how did that work out for New Zealand? A sum total of 26 deaths! That's it. For the whole pandemic duration. So far anyway. We've opened our borders now so we'll see. Well, so far so good. We did have one death this year.
I don't think the effect was absent in spring 2020; I believe they could not have got the initial outbreak under control as quickly as they did if it were not for the fact that the surrounding countries locked down.
What we saw in the US during spring 2020 was that the spread was perpetuated by people travelling from virus hotspots back to their home states and cities (on spring break and other travels). Despite the fact that some US states and cities locked down, others didn't and people were free travel between the areas.
Luckily for Sweden, the surrounding countries - and Europe broadly - locked down. By the time travel started ramping up again, the seasonality effect kicked it.
Summer 2021 is completely different because the delta variant is way more transmissible. There are dozens of examples that prove that this new strain does not care about seasons.
Thank you. So, whether or not surrounding countries lockdowns affected Sweden (you think they did; I don't think that had much of an effect), we agree that change in season was a significant effect in deaths falling in Sweden from spring 2020 to summer 2020.
The reason I harp on seasonality is cases are going to rise in the fall in the North again, whether Sweden, or Ohio, or Minnesota, or wherever, assuming we still run a lot of tests for the virus. When they do, we can say, "this is normal and expected, and due to immunity from the vaccines as well as natural infection, the relationship between cases and severe outcomes is weaker than it was before, we're going to be fine," or we can panic and say "how could anyone have predicted this, we thought we were past this thanks to the vaccines, now we need more public health interventions." I stress seasonality so that people get comfortable with the first option and aren't tempted by the second one. That's the reason I picked apart your initial claim.
Comparison between Sweden and the US is nonsensical for multiple reasons already discussed multiple times. The bottom line is they did much worse than their peers - Norway, Denmark, etc
Yes it is, also a lower obesity and diabetes rate, national health care and a large percentage of single resident homes. Many used Sweden a success story last year because they were light on restrictions but later had a a very bad surge. Dr Osterholm from Univ of Minnesota has relatives in Sweden and predicted the surge, people cherry pick a point in time to confirm their theory.
Every country has had multiple waves of covid because that is what viruses do. They lived more normally than most though throughout and ended up with good results. They might have another wave but overall, things worked out well for them in spite of everyone insisting they were wrong. A truly balanced approach is what Sweden did.
Tonga didn't have a wave... (They also avoided the Spanish Flu.)
A better comparison would be South Dakota vs Sweden.
However, Sweden, like South Dakota didn't have a steady flow of tourism. The areas that got hit the worst were places that drew a lot tourism. Albania made it through with little restrictions and cases until last Fall. Then they ended up on the tourism radar because they had beaches and no restrictions. https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/albania/
Sweden restricted travel into the country at the beginning of the pandemic, and only opened it up to EU citizens in July '20. A ban on those outside of the EU is still in effect. (https://www.krisinformation.se/en/ha...l-restrictions)
Tonga shut it's borders in March '20, and has kept them shut.
South Dakota, hasn't shut it borders through the whole thing.
Yes it is, also a lower obesity and diabetes rate, national health care and a large percentage of single resident homes. Many used Sweden a success story last year because they were light on restrictions but later had a a very bad surge. Dr Osterholm from Univ of Minnesota has relatives in Sweden and predicted the surge, people cherry pick a point in time to confirm their theory.
The places with restrictions had surges, too -- hell, look at Osterholm's home state, Minnesota!
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
