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He's just not based in reality. Russia is already trying to destroy Ukraine. If they could, they would. And he just doesn't seem to have heard of Afghanistan.
And what is our choice? Do we allow Russia to commit genocide on the Ukrainians by refusing to arm them? Do we put Russian troops on the border of Moldova and Poland? Do we embolden Putin to unleash his little green men in the Baltics?
We are giving Ukrainians the choice. They are the ones who will be murdered and imprisoned and have their children kidnapped should Russia win.
Fascinating overview of the situation with Crimea.
If Russia maintains control, then they can use it again as a staging ground for their next attack on Ukraine.
If Ukraine regains control, Russia loses the Sevastopol port for its Black Sea fleet.
An independent Crimea with UN peacekeepers is a halfway measure that might work, but hard to imagine either side being content with that. Russia might if they get to keep Sevastopol.
Ukrainian military will have a difficult time recapturing Crimea, as Crimea is well defended and the area for invasion is limited. Also, they don't have the long range missiles, aircraft, or naval capabilities that would be needed.
Destroying the bridge and cutting off access from the north might work, eventually.
Over the years, Russia has deported hundreds of thousand from Crimea and replaced them with Russians. So that will be a problem. Hard to imagine Ukraine deporting a million "ethnic Russians" from Crimea. But also hard to imagine how they can maintain control if the majority of people oppose being part of Ukraine.
If and when Ukraine regains control of Crimea, perhaps they will resettle a million Ukrainians whose homes have been destroyed in Russia's invasion. Crimeans who maintain strong ties to Russia might self-select to move back to Russia.
I know Zelensky has said he wants to take Crimea back.
What have the people of Crimea said about this ?
According to the video, they had a chance to vote to become part of Russia some years ago, and overwhelming voted against it.
This was after decades of Russia deporting citizens of Crimea, and replacing them with Russians.
In any case, I doubt that what these newly minted Crimeans want will make much difference.
If they want to be Russians, they can move back to Russia.
Read recently that Russia is offering to resettle any Europeans or Americans who want to move to Russia. Even offering them 10 hectares to start their new life. Goal is to attract one million new citizens.
Wonder how that program is working out.
Last edited by GotHereQuickAsICould; 03-14-2023 at 11:45 AM..
Even talking about Ukraine liberating Crimea is so incredibly premature, considering that they have made almost zero progress in the last six months toward liberating any of the other territories.
This is why NATO must get involved. A full all out NATO operation could liberate all of the Ukraine in no time. How long would it take Ukraine to do it by themselves? 100 years maybe?
I don't get people arguing this. NATO in Ukraine would make the probability of Russia using tactical Nuclear weapons there very very real. What would were respond with? Tactical nukes? Then the risk of eacalation even further escelation that would be disastrous.
JUST IN - Russian fighter jet forces down a US drone over the Black Sea:
A Russian fighter jet forced down a US Air Force drone over the Black Sea on Tuesday after damaging the propeller of the American MQ-9 Reaper drone, according to a US official familiar with the incident.
The Reaper drone and two SU-27 Flanker jets were operating over international waters over the Black Sea when one of the Russian jets intentionally flew in front of and dumped fuel in front of the unmanned drone, according to the official. One of the jets then damaged the propeller of the Reaper, which is mounted on the rear of the drone, the official said. The damage to the propeller forced the US to bring down the Reaper in international waters in the Black Sea.
The US Air Force issued a statement accusing the Russian aircraft of acting in a “reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner.”
Crimea?.......... Ukraine may be able to get it back, but it doesn't look like the conventional methods are going to do it.
We know Ukraine can turn off the water - or dam it up, actually.
I'm pretty sure they can destroy the power grid and they can destroy the Kerch Bridge.
Basically, it looks like it is going to take a siege while waiting for the Russians to get sick of the whole thing and revolt. Might be a good idea to leave the bridge so they will have a way to leave.
I don't think we'll ever see NATO on the battlefield. I do think we'll see a Ukraine free from uniformed Russians. Even as our resident double agent says, if it takes "100 years".
Ukraine basically IMO dug in and tried to bleed Russia over the winter with a high cost for ground gained.
The idea there would be to decrease their resources while building up for their own. (Hey Stalingrad anyone?)
So, it seems like Ukraine will make a bold move this Spring but where and how....and will it be effective will likely dictate the rest of 2023.
Please note everyone, I'm making no predictions of success or failure, just what I think will be attempted.
I don't get people arguing this. NATO in Ukraine would make the probability of Russia using tactical Nuclear weapons there very very real. What would were respond with? Tactical nukes? Then the risk of eacalation even further escelation that would be disastrous.
Tactical nukes would not be needed to destroy Russia's nuclear arsenal.
Nuclear-armed submarines would be more difficult, of course, but the location of land-based nuclear weapons have been known for years. And for years, NATO forces have mapped out war games to take them out. There are fighter pilots sitting alert 24/7 in Europe for just such a scenario.
If Putin launched a nuclear weapon, he would be crossing a red line, and Russia would be destroyed.
Ukraine basically IMO dug in and tried to bleed Russia over the winter with a high cost for ground gained.
The idea there would be to decrease their resources while building up for their own. (Hey Stalingrad anyone?)
So, it seems like Ukraine will make a bold move this Spring but where and how....and will it be effective will likely dictate the rest of 2023.
Please note everyone, I'm making no predictions of success or failure, just what I think will be attempted.
That's sure what it looks like.
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