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My graduate degree is economics/finance. But I thought a statistical wizard like you would be able to give us a statistical opinion on the odds that by pure chance 10 of the warmest years in recorded history all happened in the last 12 years. That's a testable proposition, right? Up your alley? Something a sophomore statistics student should be able to calculate.
ok...so you finally admit that you can't understand science. That is a good first step. ...as to your assignment of a statistical problem of that nature to me, 1) I can calculate the probabilities if I have the rest of the data. Since neither I nor anyone else has the rest of the data, attempting to calculate such a probability is a mega-misuse of statistics. 2) Sophmore's couldn't calculate it without all the data. Neither can you.
Since you claim, with your finance degrees to be such a genius...why don't you forecast the changes to the beta as a result of cap and trade. Make sure you eliminate market forces and business cycles.
Note, rlchurch, with your claimed business acumen, I expect you to combine industries in some sort of normative way and discuss the affect of cap and trade on some interesting segments.
Why would he/she do that? they work in the energy industry and, if competent, would profit from all that.
I don't think he CAN do it--that's the point. His logic has been seen to be bogus; now I believe we will see that his educational claims are bogus too. Maybe we will see me proven wrong.
ok...so you finally admit that you can't understand science. That is a good first step. ...as to your assignment of a statistical problem of that nature to me, 1) I can calculate the probabilities if I have the rest of the data. Since neither I nor anyone else has the rest of the data, attempting to calculate such a probability is a mega-misuse of statistics. 2) Sophmore's couldn't calculate it without all the data. Neither can you.
I think you said your expertise was math. There is no science requirement in a math degree and it shows. Go dig out that data. It's all public. Show your work.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dcashley
Since you claim, with your finance degrees to be such a genius...why don't you forecast the changes to the beta as a result of cap and trade. Make sure you eliminate market forces and business cycles.
What beta? Every security has a beta. But the CAPM is so 90s. Nobody but idiots uses it for investing. Try reading some Fama and get back to me.
I think you said your expertise was math. There is no science requirement in a math degree and it shows. Go dig out that data. It's all public. Show your work.
What beta? Every security has a beta. But the CAPM is so 90s. Nobody but idiots uses it for investing. Try reading some Fama and get back to me.
That's what I thought you would say. Pretty much what I predicted to bigjohn you would say. Pretty much says it all. You are able to recognize CAPM and Beta--but you are unable to forecast what changes in the economic environment will cause industry-to-industry variances from the overall changes in the market. This is pretty basic stuff. ...and I understand how most people can't get it...but you've pretty much said that you are a masters prepared expert in finance and economics.
Well, I have to conclude, with a fair amount of certainity, that you do not know finance, you do not know economics, and your educational claims are bogus.
So far you admitted that your knowledge of science was limited. Now your performance shows that your knowledge of finance and economics is sophmoric. ....oh by the way re: Fama. You probably are unaware of it but the Fama-French 3 Factor Model STARTS with an assessment of Beta as the SOLE explanation of stock performance, indicts that statement and proceeds with more sophisticated analysis. If you can't discuss Beta, you can't discuss Fama-French.
That's what I thought you would say. Pretty much what I predicted to bigjohn you would say. Pretty much says it all. You are able to recognize CAPM and Beta--but you are unable to forecast what changes in the economic environment will cause industry-to-industry variances from the overall changes in the market. This is pretty basic stuff. ...and I understand how most people can't get it...but you've pretty much said that you are a masters prepared expert in finance and economics.
I get it fine. You haven't specified what you are even looking for. I suspect a quick peek at Wikipedia left you unprepared.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dcashley
Well, I have to conclude, with a fair amount of certainity, that you do not know finance, you do not know economics, and your educational claims are bogus.
Maybe maybe not, but you couldn't tell.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dcashley
So far you admitted that your knowledge of science was limited. Now your performance shows that your knowledge of finance and economics is sophmoric. ....oh by the way re: Fama. You probably are unaware of it but the Fama-French 3 Factor Model STARTS with an assessment of Beta as the SOLE explanation of stock performance, indicts that statement and proceeds with more sophisticated analysis. If you can't discuss Beta, you can't discuss Fama-French.
Good by credibility Mr. RLCHURCH.
Actually my knowledge of science is certainly orders of magnitude greater than yours. I've actually taken college physics.
Well, that's not what Gene said when I took his finance courses. He has never embraced the CAPM as a correct model for how the market prices securities, though he used the CAPM fairly extensively in analytical work during the 70s and early 80s.
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