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Old 10-24-2014, 09:20 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619

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Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
The weather geek term is orographic lift. It's why the spine of the Green Mountains in central and northern Vermont gets 250" to 355" of snow. The relatively warm, moist air gets pushed uphill where it cools and releases that moisture as snow. The ski areas all have a cloud parked on top of them for much of the winter acting as nature's snowmaking machine.
Yup, that's why VT weather always intrigues me. This time last year we were talking about it as well.
https://www.city-data.com/forum/vermont/1353613-vermont-weather-37.html#post31965938

And here's January 20, 2014

Quote:
Originally Posted by tkln View Post
Speaking of the white stuff...I'm seeing possible flakes in the long term forecast for next weekend. Yes???
I didn't want to jump in yet but the latest models are getting me excited for after mid week. Basically arctic air diving down and snow potential. Still too early so I try not to say much since some consider talk hype.. lol
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Old 10-24-2014, 09:57 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
Just saw BTV discussion: Keep us posted if any of you see anything. Every year around this time I watch the levels drop and drop with each week/month. Next month it will be easier for 1000' levels to get it.

"AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END."

Burlington's snowfall average for November is 6.2". Last time they got more than 7" in November was November 2002.

last year they got 6.4" total for the month
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Old 10-24-2014, 06:53 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
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New discussion..

NWSBurlington.

"THOSE WANTING TO DO MORE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY
REQUIRING DRY WEATHER, SHOULD PLAN FOR SATURDAY. THOSE THAT WANT
TO GO SNOWFLAKE CHASING SHOULD PLAN FOR SUNDAY

SUSPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 2500FT BY THE AFTERNOON, AND THERE
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT LEAST AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT BY
LATE IN THE DAY."

National Weather Service Text Product Display
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Old 10-24-2014, 07:18 PM
 
Location: Windham County, VT
10,855 posts, read 6,371,365 times
Reputation: 22048
Brattleboro: breezy & brisk, mostly overcast today. Was 49-50 degrees Fri. afternoon.
Tomorrow's supposed to be a tad milder, then more gusty wind for Sunday.
Leaves are still on some of the trees, others are bare-makes me all the more appreciative of the evergreens in the mix.
Time change-in a week or so-is going to make things suddenly seem a lot more wintry (in terms of darkness).
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Old 10-25-2014, 05:19 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
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Current temps 7:15am

Enjoy the 40s and 50s day temps today to Wednesday because looks like we might get a small stretch of 20s at night Saturday to Monday?

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Old 10-25-2014, 05:49 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
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Forgot to add...maybe 60s on Tuesday!
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Old 10-25-2014, 11:24 AM
 
43,011 posts, read 108,049,575 times
Reputation: 30721
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Without getting to technical, I'm seeing the atmosphere set itself up for a stormy pattern. We had a clipper, now a NorEaster, maybe another clipper Saturday. Usually the atmosphere takes time to establish or change, so to see this now it's possible we could have a stormy winter. Add cold air and that means a lot of snow. One week at a time.
You made my son's day! Let's hope that's how it turns out.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
If you love weather or want to learn... here's the more technical read... ITS 73 PDF PAGES! Not bad since font is large. Print it and read it over Hot Coco. Its great stuff. Would love to hear someones thoughts on it.

Winter Forecast for 2014/2015 :: NY NJ PA WEATHER

Quick tid bit to get an idea of how this guy uses science to make his winter forecast...not models or analogs.
Thank you for this. I'm very interested. I glanced over it and realized I need to look up the meanings of certain terms to fully understand it. I'll have time to devote to this is a few weeks.
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Old 10-25-2014, 01:47 PM
 
Location: Western views of Mansfield/Camels Hump!
2,062 posts, read 3,962,187 times
Reputation: 1265
What a beautiful day today. It was good to finally get outside and get some sun.
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Old 10-25-2014, 05:06 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkln View Post
What a beautiful day today. It was good to finally get outside and get some sun.
Agree. It's nice to get these days to finish up some stuff around the house. I was mowing in shorts then caulking and spraying foam in any gaps around the house. Tomorrow I split some wood. Will be bit cooler Sunday but then warm back up Monday-Wed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hopes View Post
You made my son's day! Let's hope that's how it turns out.


Thank you for this. I'm very interested. I glanced over it and realized I need to look up the meanings of certain terms to fully understand it. I'll have time to devote to this is a few weeks.
Cool! Yeah some wording can get tough but good stuff.

Forecast video by Michael Page for VT weather tomorrow and this week. Watch what happens next weekend. Models all agreeing on Arctic air dropping in.

http://www.mychamplainvalley.com/videostory/d/video/champlain-valley-n-ny-montreal-forecast/5412496

Last edited by Cambium; 10-25-2014 at 05:28 PM..
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Old 10-26-2014, 11:47 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
How can I not spoil the warm fun(after today) when there's something interesting brewing for next weekend??

Latest GFS model sounding for BTV next Sat 5pm. This is showing the atmosphere from bottom up. Think of it as if your standing outside and looking up. It's reading the temp and moisture as you go up.

So start at the bottom and work your way up through the atmosphere. Remember, this is Not a forecast, just a possibility for next Saturday at 5pm here..

Red line is the temp, green line moisture. When they meet at the surface it equals precip.

In short... SNOW. GFS brews a big storm from Great Lakes cuts across New England with temps cold enough for snow. Wow!

This will change many times so don't get too excited yet.

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