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Research has shown East Based La Nina with a falling QBO means cold below normal weather coming for Central/Eastern U.S. But does that mean it was November? or do we carry this over into Dec-Jan too?
October QBO came in at -16.79 which means it was still descending.
QBO is basically the winds at the Tropopause and Stratosphere levels. Negative QBO means East winds. Positive means west.
Looking at this graphic from Scott, it shows the # of months it took to have East winds at the Stratosphere down to the Tropopause. 9 months is pretty quick based on history
La Nina has not influenced the pattern at all this winter. It's been more like a weak El Nino.
At least on the East Coast it has; Western ridging and severe cold plunges in the East alternating with warm waves, such as we're having now. The back-and-forth patterns are more typical of Niñas. We've had only one major coastal storm so far this winter; the "bomb storm" of January 3-5. Coastals, either of the rain or snow variety, are more common during Niños. Except for the severity of the cold, this winter has been very similar to the Super Niña of 1973-4, which set records for below-normal temperatures in ENSO 3.4.
At least on the East Coast it has; Western ridging and severe cold plunges in the East alternating with warm waves, such as we're having now. The back-and-forth patterns are more typical of Niñas. We've had only one major coastal storm so far this winter; the "bomb storm" of January 3-5. Coastals, either of the rain or snow variety, are more common during Niños. Except for the severity of the cold, this winter has been very similar to the Super Niña of 1973-4, which set records for below-normal temperatures in ENSO 3.4.
Western ridging is not typical of a Nina. Quite the opposite, in fact.
Western ridging is not typical of a Nina. Quite the opposite, in fact.
Actually...it is.. but the peak is more towards Gulf of Alaska.. but reason why East is warm is because of a strong SE Ridge around...
La Nina summers are brutal in the East.
I doubt it will last through spring and maybe even a weak Nina in Spring so we'll see.
This is the typical wintertime setup. Difference this winter has been that Jet has dug down south more and gave the south/southeast 4 winter storms already.
Typically that's true of first-summer La Niñas (1970, 1973, 1988, 1995, 1999, late summer 2007, 2010, and late-summer 2017) or even dying or failed Niños (1980, 1987, 2001, 2002). Second summer La Niñas or waxing El Niños are often miserably cool and/or wet. Think 1971, 1972, 1974, 1976, 1984, 1989, 1996, 2000 and 2008.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
I doubt it will last through spring and maybe even a weak Nina in Spring so we'll see.
Why?
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