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Typically that's true of first-summer La Niñas (1970, 1973, 1988, 1995, 1999, late summer 2007, 2010, and late-summer 2017) or even dying or failed Niños (1980, 1987, 2001, 2002). Second summer La Niñas or waxing El Niños are often miserably cool and/or wet. Think 1971, 1972, 1974, 1976, 1984, 1989, 1996, 2000 and 2008.
Interesting.. This year would be a "1st Nina Summer" because Summer 2017 was pretty much neutral. It wasn't really a Nina until September (maybe after mid August). See Archived Discussions. August discussion mentions "Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remains consistent with ENSO-neutral."
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbgusa
Why?
No real reason just feel like the Pacific will warm up enough as the warm season moves along and will be hard to sustained a cool Enso region. Last time we had a real Nina Summer was 2010 & 2011. Also 2007-2008.
Plus forecasts and showing Nina getting weaker with more chances of it being Neutral for Summer.
Interesting.. This year would be a "1st Nina Summer" because Summer 2017 was pretty much neutral. It wasn't really a Nina until September (maybe after mid August). See Archived Discussions. August discussion mentions "Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remains consistent with ENSO-neutral."
2011 was an exception. At least July was ridiculously hot. August behaved more like a "second summer Niña." Joseph S. D'Aleo when he was with Intellicast, wrote extensively on the subject. The link I gave you is more partisan though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
No real reason just feel like the Pacific will warm up enough as the warm season moves along and will be hard to sustained a cool Enso region. Last time we had a real Nina Summer was 2010 & 2011. Also 2007-2008.
Plus forecasts and showing Nina getting weaker with more chances of it being Neutral for Summer.
2011 was an exception. At least July was ridiculously hot. August behaved more like a "second summer Niña." Joseph S. D'Aleo when he was with Intellicast, wrote extensively on the subject. The link I gave you is more partisan though.
Aren't most Niñas multi-year events?
Didn't know Joe was with Intellicast before weatherbell. I'll check out link bit later, Thanks!
Another thing I never realized. Most Ninas are multi Year events. I only see 1964 as a 1 yr Nina Summer.
Here's a look at the 3 month averages since 1950.. They use 5 consecutive overlapping seasons to indicate the Ninas and Ninos. And +- 0.5 threshold.
Once this January & February are done, they'll color the recent months in blue. That will be our 2nd Nina Fall and Winter in a row. ACTUALLY... Aug-Sept-Oct 2017 was only -0.4 so they wouldn't color it in blue.. Jan-Feb AND March 2018 has to end up below -0.5.
Why are El Niño winters usually soakers in the West, think 1968-9 and 1982-3 and La Niña winters are droughty?
El Nino winters deliver split flow to the west coast, with well above average precip in CA and below normal precip in OR, WA and southern BC. This is an average and thus we can deviate from it of course, so there are some examples of the opposite occuring such as 68-69, which acted more like a La Nina winter featuring extreme Alaskan/Aleutian blocking with a suppressed jet sending precip into Oregon and Northern California.
Here in the PNW, many locations recorded their wettest year on record in 1999, which was a La Nina.
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