The southern suburbs in the next 10-20 years. (Chicago, Naperville: loan, house prices)

[CCrest182]

Originally Posted by JamieLannister

Another factor to consider is where the so-called millennial generation will put down roots. This is a generation burdened with debt and so-so employment prospects. I do believe that this cycle will eventually turn around and the economy will improve, but that may still take a number of years.

In the meantime, we have a generation that may help shape the future of Chicago's neighborhoods and its transit-oriented suburbs, depending on where they settle. While I agree that the "return to the city" movement is certainly real, the unfortunately reality is that city-living is still quite tough for middle-class families seeking good schools.

Thus, for those with jobs in or around the Loop, this leads many with families back out to the "walkable, transit-oriented" suburbs, where, despite the real estate downturn, home prices in many of these suburbs remain quite high relative to average income. This is a generation that will have a tough time affording the $300-$500K "starter" homes in those communities.

This is where towns like Homewood and Flossmoor could flourish in the future. Home prices there are quite inexpensive when compared to the western and northern suburbs (although their property taxes do balance things out some). IF young people were to return to H-F (young people of ALL races) and become active in the communities and schools, and IF H-F leaders took some decisive actions towards attracting younger residents (again, of all races) and upscale retail development, then I can see H-F prospering into the future.

A pipe dream? Maybe. But the infrastructure is there and the communities are still pretty nice right now, so if I had to predict the best candidates to do well in the southland over the next 10-20 years, H-F would be mine.

Despite their success the last 20 years, I am less enthusiastic about the suburbs west of I-57. Much of their growth occurred during the boom and during times of cheaper oil. If oil and gas prices become unsustainably high, these communities could be hit hard. A lot of their growth was also fueled by "white flighters" from the southwest side and Cook County south suburbs. If demographics continue to become more mixed in those areas, then we could just as easily see the same sort of flight out of Will County that we saw out of Southern Cook County.

That being said, we're unlikely to have another real estate boom for another generation, so who knows if we'll see another mass migration like we did out of the south side/south suburbs.

Orland will continue to grow and become more diverse. It will probably continue to do well over that time due to its status as a regional retail center.

Perhaps in Homewood and Flossmoor, this is possible. However, there are many trashy schools in the south suburbs that some CPS schools don't even hold a candle to their crap factor. Not to mention astronomically high crime in some areas, that certainly won't attract any young whites or anyone really, even if they are on a budget.

[pvande55]

Growth in the far south suburbs will be restrained by a large chunk of unusable land set aside for an airport that will not be built in our lifetimes.

[gregbuck]

Originally Posted by CCrest182

Perhaps in Homewood and Flossmoor, this is possible. However, there are many trashy schools in the south suburbs that some CPS schools don't even hold a candle to their crap factor. Not to mention astronomically high crime in some areas, that certainly won't attract any young whites or anyone really, even if they are on a budget.

There has been some economic decline in the far southern suburbs. But far less decline than what some people are lead to believe. At least in terms of the solidly middle class communities. Not talking about chicago heights or whatever. Overall, the class disparity east of i-57 compared to west of i-57 is wildly over exaggerated.


Census data for 2012

Median household incomes.

Flossmoor $106,250
Homewood $69,835
Olympia Fields $79,762
Matteson $66,847
Richton Park $60,516
Crete $70,963

[doodlemagic]

I think Orland, Tinley, Palos will continue to be good as they are but I see the more troubled southern suburbs ie country club hills, harvey, robbins, cal city, etc continuing to go downhill.

[gregbuck]

Originally Posted by doodlemagic

I think Orland, Tinley, Palos will continue to be good as they are but I see the more troubled southern suburbs ie country club hills, harvey, robbins, cal city, etc continuing to go downhill.

Again, I don't think anyone with actual knowledge of the far southern suburbs can find much in common with a community like country club hills. Middle class, has a median household income of $61,944 as of 2012. And Harvey or Robbins. Mostly lower class, and have median household incomes of $28,123 and $21,765 respectively. You are just way off.

[Frank the Tank]

As someone that grew up in the South Suburbs (grew up in Glenwood, went to H-F), I have a lot of fond memories of the area. However, it wasn't until I moved to other parts of the region (at various points lived in Chinatown, Roscoe Village, Libertyville and now settled in Naperville) just how far behind the South Suburbs are in terms of (a) white collar jobs in the immediate vicinity and (b) retail and restaurants. Point (a) is what drives point (b), both of which directly affect real estate prices (and in turn, is correlated directly to school quality and town amenities).

I've seen a lot of people in this thread talk about (b), but little about (a). Without (a), very little will change in the Southland region. If you live in the North or West Suburbs, there are large upper income employment centers and bases for large corporations (Oak Brook, Naperville, Schaumburg, Rosemont, Lake-Cook Road Corridor) on top of Metra line access to the Loop. That doesn't exist in the South Suburbs - there are very few white collar corporate jobs and commuting downtown is really your only option. That's why you see a handful of pockets of affluence in Homewood/Flossmorr/Olympia Fields (all of whom have good Metra access) and not much else in the area. That's the way it was when I graduated high school in the mid-1990s and little has changed outside of the racial composition.

The troubling thing is that I'm not sure what can be proactively done. It's a vicious circle since companies go to where the talent lives (which has been north and west of the city), and then more talent moves to where the companies go, and so on and so forth. The real estate prices reflect that (which is why a lot of homes in Flossmoor that I ogled growing up would be worth several times more in a place like Naperville). The lack of corporate jobs is an inherent limitation on the area's future growth (because that's what drives affluent people to move there, and then retail and restaurants follow affluence).

[Northwest Indiana]

Welp, another south suburban mall dies...

Lincoln Mall to close after holidays

[Army_Guy]

Lincoln Mall really declined in the late 90's. I was surprised they hung around for this long especially after so many stores/restaurants in the area left: Old Navy, Bakers Square, Applebees, Best Buy, Dominicks, etc...

I remember going to the mall in the 80's and it was an incredibly booming place: McDonalds, Buy The Weight, Noah's Ark, the arcade, Athens, Modern Man, Montgomery Wards, JC Penney's, Goldbladts, the toy store, the movie theater, etc...

Lots of great memories there:

We lived in Park Forest in the 80's and I remember my dad taking us to the pet store to get hamsters. They were out of hamsters but my dad wanted us to get something similar. We ended up bringing home mice, mom was not pleased.

Also remember going to see Santa and having a Polaroid (remember those?) taken with him. Stayed up all night staring in the hall waiting for him to show up and he never did. LOL.

[Lookout Kid]

Another enclosed shopping mall bites the dust. It doesn't seem that long ago that we were talking about the malls killing the downtowns, and now the internet and "big box stores" are killing the malls.

But this isn't just a south suburban phenomenon... I have several other northern and western malls on "death watch", like Stratford Square, Charlestown, Golf Mill, and North Riverside (which just caught on FIRE yesterday!).

[drss01]

Originally Posted by gregbuck

There has been some economic decline in the far southern suburbs. But far less decline than what some people are lead to believe. At least in terms of the solidly middle class communities. Not talking about chicago heights or whatever. Overall, the class disparity east of i-57 compared to west of i-57 is wildly over exaggerated.


Census data for 2012

Median household incomes.

Flossmoor $106,250
Homewood $69,835
Olympia Fields $79,762
Matteson $66,847
Richton Park $60,516
Crete $70,963

http://www.realtor.com/local/Frankfort_IL/lifestyle

Per this source Frankfort median income is $122k

http://www.city-data.com/city/Frankfort-Illinois.html

Frankfort median household income $108,690