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There is actually one major disincentive: the enormous cost of relocating to Yuppieville. White people can't segregate themselves from the majority-minority underclass of Chicago unless they can afford to live in neighborhoods where houses start at $300K and property taxes start in the high 4 figures and end in the 5 figures. The socioeconomic stratification in Chicagoland is getting so extreme that even the upper middle class will eventually be pushed out of Yuppieville. The McMansions that are driving their property values into the stratosphere will end up being the barrier of entry that prevents their children from starting families in the neighborhoods where they grew up.
This does seem to be happening. I think it's driving people to cheaper housing markets, and is a big factor in why 100,000 residents left Illinois last year, assuming that Census estimate is correct (and they have been really, really wrong before).
My only solace is that McMansions pay more property taxes than me in my modest 1920's house... So more McMansions in my area should ultimately mean lower property taxes for me. If the district has larger and larger dollar amounts coming in, they will feel less pressure to "maximize the levy".
I don't know much about Berwyn, besides it's close to Forest Park/Oak Park, an area in which I'm considering purchasing. So my analysis will have to be taken with a grain of salt. But looking at the data from the U.S. Census and my background in data analysis, here's my opinion/prediction.
The non-Hispanic White population of Berwyn declined 13.61% from 2000-2010. Keep in mind that over the same period of time, the population of Berwyn grew 4.89%. The age group of whites that left range from 0 to 50 as well as older folks, presumably reaching the end of their years. There was an increase in whites aged 50-65.
*Note: Census viewer seems to count "white alone" differently than City-Data or Quickfacts.
The African-American/Black population of Berwyn jumped 416.67%! Of course, the population base was very small to begin with (702 in 2000 vs 3,627 in 2010). Blacks are only 6.40% of Berwyn's population. Hispanics are the comfortable majority.
We're almost halfway until the next Census (isn't that crazy?), so unless there was/is a vast change in trend, Berwyn has already been experiencing white flight. So my guess is that the white population will continue to decline as the Hispanic population grows. I would also expect a more sizable black population in the future. As mentioned above, this does NOT mean white people aren't moving to Berwyn. It simply means more are moving out than moving in. Seeing the age groups that have a higher outflow rate than inflow rate are people of working age, I would assume it is due to the school district and perceptions of safety.
Does that mean Berwyn will decline? No. I don't think it's going to become an unstable neighborhood. Based on the posts here, a lot of people are rooting for Berwyn, and I highly doubt they're all people trying to unload their homes. . Berwyn doesn't have a high crime rate; in fact, it is slightly safer than Oak Park (based on overall crime rates from City-Data). There seems to be great improvements being made in Berwyn. It also has one of the best collection of bungalows in the Chicago area.
I understand your concern about seeing an increase in black people, to an extent. It's all about perception, at the end of the day. I wouldn't call you racist, but you seem to have some preconceived notions of black people. Have you had any problems with the black folks congregating at the Austin lady's house? Did they break into your house, threaten you, or are they just hanging out outside? If a group of white/Hispanics were congregated outside, would you ask if the area is declining? Contrary to popular belief, African-Americans do not cause the decline of the neighborhood. The perception of what's going to happen seems to be the culprit. Ever hear the stories of blacks houses being burned down when they move into an all white neighborhood back in the day? Yeah, the area didn't decline the moment they moved in. They most likely moved to the area for the same reason others did: they wanted a safe neighborhood to raise their family. Whites do too of course, but the sad fact is seeing too many minorities changes the perception of a place, even if there's no real change in safety. Oak Park gets snubbed a bit due to safety concerns, even though it is, generally speaking, very safe. Perception. You become a powerful person when you can look past fear and see reality. If whites didn't unload their homes in a panic in Matteson/Olympia fields (and if there was a solid/competitive school district), I don't see why the area wouldn't be as desirable as OP/RF. Don't let fear rule your life.
So in closing, I'm sure you'll be fine in Berwyn. It's a safe place in a great location, with a higher than average minority population. Unless you see gangs moving in and drive-by's, I'm pretty sure the vast majority of people are looking for a safe place to relax, live, and grow, just like you.
Also fascinating is the number of people aged 5-17. That group increased nearly 13% during the 2000s. The vast majority of this increase is likely from the Hispanic side. In 2000, 44% of Berwyn South D100's students were Hispanic. By 2010 that was nearly 82%. North Berwyn D98 was a little less dramatic -- 57% to 82% -- but that's because the Hispanic population moved to the north part of town en masse in the 1990s. Now, D98 and D100 are nearly identical in terms of Hispanic composition.
Interestingly, the African American students in D98 have steadily remained around 9-11% since 2007. In D100 that's been 2.5-3.3% since 2007. That implies that the African American population has stabilized, at least insofar as school aged children are concerned. The African-American population in Chicagoland is declining, so I don't see a 1940-80 style "white flight" happening there.
I'll be curious as to what these numbers look like after 2020 but I think Chicagoland92 has it about right. I see Hispanic and to a lesser extent African American families continuing to move there as a suburban alternative to CPS, with DINK white non-Hispanics continuing to move there due to the housing stock and proximity to the City, but cycling out once their kids reach school age.
How should a black American respond to this type of thread? The idea that the mere presence of a certain number of black residents should cause alarm is really, really sad. Yet I am not naive enough to deny that this is exactly what happens.
The problem is that white Americans have little incentive to change things outside of the "goodness of their hearts", and plenty of incentive to continue "white flight" and de facto redlining as long as even a hint of negative attitudes towards black people remain. Let's pretend that a white person exists with no racial bias whatsoever, but lives in a community that is experiencing white flight (I don't believe this person exists, but play along for the sake of this argument). Other white Americans with greater racial bias begin to panic and move out, driving down real estate prices. So now, even the white person with NO racial bias is incentivized to move out before his largest asset, his home, drops in price to the point that it is a severe financial problem for his family. If he stays put for the "greater social good", he is penalized.
The key here is that white people and their attitudes are driving the "white flight" phenomenon, not black residents moving in. And unfortunately it's just one more way that America continues to punish "blackness" through subtle racism. It doesn't take much to create a negative attitude about a place, and Chicagoland is so large and offers so many alternate locations with similar amenities that there is little disincentive against moving.
And when it was time to put your money where your mouth is, where did you move to? Look around you and tell us what you see...
I certainly don't begrudge your decision, but the lecture from someone who moved from Uptown to an overwhelmingly white suburb with a median household income of $90K and housing prices averaging in the $350K range is a bit much.
Heh. Lookout lost his street cred ;-) This said, we need the Lookout Kids of the world to move to places like Berwyn so we can maintain integration and, most important, create better access to opportunity for the disadvantaged. Unfortunately, he shows why this may need to be firmly nudged along by a power higher than market forces and property tax funded education.
Well even though I don't live there I have put my hard earned money in Berwyn. Also there have been many gains in employment with regard to minority groups over the past twenty years...I worked with many college educated black managers when I was working, and Hispanic too. Hopefully these are the folks (and others with stable jobs) that will buy the homes in Berwyn, not transient low income people. Lending rules have changed and tightened up. Also Berwyn is one of the highest areas for flipping houses. Most of these homes have been purchased at low rates and companies have moved in to rehab there (some are quite nice) and hopefully they will appeal to people that are looking for a house at a certain price point. There are also a considerable number of people buying the old bungalows and fixing them up themselves.
And when it was time to put your money where your mouth is, where did you move to? Look around you and tell us what you see...
I certainly don't begrudge your decision, but the lecture from someone who moved from Uptown to an overwhelmingly white suburb with a median household income of $90K and housing prices averaging in the $350K range is a bit much.
I didn't intend to lecture anyone… I was pointing out that white people, even if they start out with good intentions, are heavily incentivized to leave town in "white flight" situations. The primary argument to stay would be the "social good", and most people are not willing to sacrifice their livelihoods for that.
Uptown is not a "white flight" scenario, but is in fact probably the opposite (gentrification and increasing prices). We had six years of frustrations of raising kids in the city, and realized we could only afford what we wanted in the suburbs in terms of home size, schools, and lifestyle.
If, like in my case, we are talking about reasons that whites avoid certain areas for relocation ("white avoidance" instead of "white flight"), well the incentives are even more skewed, since a person like me had absolutely no history or ties to a place like Berwyn. We are not starting out there. We were in a situation starting from scratch with a healthy budget, evaluating multiple places with multiple criteria, and Berwyn didn't make the cut. Perhaps if our budget were more constrained we would have made some compromises and ended up there.
Also, as one half of a married couple with a strong-willed wife, the decision wasn't mine alone to make. My wife hated Berwyn, wasn't sold on Oak Park, and really liked the idea of getting away from the congestion a bit. She's such a racist!
Last edited by Lookout Kid; 03-28-2015 at 08:47 AM..
Heh. Lookout lost his street cred ;-) This said, we need the Lookout Kids of the world to move to places like Berwyn so we can maintain integration and, most important, create better access to opportunity for the disadvantaged. Unfortunately, he shows why this may need to be firmly nudged along by a power higher than market forces and property tax funded education.
I don't think you'll win many people over with those arguments. It's very hard for social good spread out over all of society to compete with obvious benefit to an individual or his/her family. But it would be nice if more people in realized the privilege that they have living in a nice suburb with good schools, and worked towards creating opportunities for all.
In Uptown I lived in a nicely finished condo a half block from the lakefront in a building with a bunch of young couples/families, gay men, retired people, and divorcees. Not much "street cred" to be found there.
"Working" from a distance won't accomplish anything. You won't understand the issues, much less how to fix them. Whether you choose to acknowledge reality or not, middle and upper middle class people need to start moving into these communities and get hands-on. Alternatively, the disadvantaged people need to be brought to the middle and upper middle class areas.
"Working" from a distance won't accomplish anything. You won't understand the issues, much less how to fix them. Whether you choose to acknowledge reality or not, middle and upper middle class people need to start moving into these communities and get hands-on. Alternatively, the disadvantaged people need to be brought to the middle and upper middle class areas.
Most parents will never sacrifice their children for the sake of the "greater good." That's why desegregation, busing, etc. have have failed. Parents with means will move to avoid it or put their children in private school.
As a parent, my job is to be 'selfish' and look out for my own children's best interests because no one, no school or government or whatever, will ever safeguard their best interests like my husband and I do.
As someone who lived in Chicago for about 10 years, I've watched so many young, urban loving singles turn into suburbanites after getting married and having a kid. When you're young and single and living in the city, you talk about how great it is; the diversity, the culture, etc. Why would people flee to the suburbs? But then eventually a child comes along and you look at the neighborhood through different eyes.
We've been away from the City of Chicago for about 4 months now and our family life is so much easier here in the 'burbs.' We're saving money because the kids are in public school now. No more worrying about parking. No more police sirens racing through the streets at night. I'm not worried about violence during the upcoming summer like we did back in Chicago.
I am aware that our chosen lifestyle (suburban) is not sustainable, that removing our children from Chicago (and never placing them in CPS) ultimately harms the schools that other children can't avoid. But my job is worry about my kids first.
My little rant here is Chicago specific but it applies to Berwyn too. When we thought we were moving to the Chicago suburbs, we briefly considered Berwyn because we loved the housing and the location and the prices were reasonable. We crossed Berwyn off the list because of the schools. If you have more than one kid, property taxes, even in the most expensive suburb, are less than private school tuition.
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. Berwyn doesn't have a high crime rate; in fact, it is slightly safer than Oak Park (based on overall crime rates from City-Data). There seems to be great improvements being made in Berwyn. It also has one of the best collection of bungalows in the Chicago area.
