The Next “Hot” Neighborhood (Chicago, Naperville: 2014, homes, buyers)

[fusillirob1983]

Originally Posted by UptownGuy3

I can only give my anecdotal experience. I’m 26 and have a one bedroom apartment in a high rise. When all life effectively ground to a halt I went to stay with my parents for about 6-7 weeks just to stave off the boredom. I’ve been back in the city for about 7 weeks now. It seems that anyone I know who was staying with their parents for a bit are also back in the city now.

I can’t really say this whole thing has changed my personal perception of the city vs the suburbs. If anything being back in the suburbs kind of reinforced why I prefer urban living. My parents live in a prototypical McMansion style sprawl suburb. Having nothing within walking distance and needing a car to get my nearest national big box store or chain restaurant didn’t exactly make me long for a new car and a single family home.

Even being back in the city with most things still being closed has been preferable to the time I spent quarantined out in the suburbs. Being able to walk to the lakefront, and being able to walk to and support a diverse array of locally owned businesses again has been kind of nice. Now perhaps I’m an outlier, as I’m not personally afraid of getting the virus.

This is all temporary in my opinion. The 1918 Spanish flu was arguably a much more serious pandemic, and it was followed by the largest period of urbanization in our countries history, the 1920’s. So who knows really. But one thing I do know, you won’t catch my trying to move out to somewhere like Naperville or Orland Park anytime soon. Maybe if Joliet or Aurora gentrify their downtowns I could see towns like that having some appeal. But places built for and around automobiles as the only way to do anything are extremely unappealing to me still. And yes, I have been using the CTA since I got back into the city.

Probably a fair point in all this. I'm about a decade older than you you, but if I looked back to 2010 and this happened then, I probably would've let my lease run out as I always started 5/1. I also had a couple roommates, one of whom I know has been pretty careless about the virus this year. I probably would've been with my parents for about a year before I went back to the city or signed another lease in the summer if cases trended down like they have.

[via chicago]

Originally Posted by Frugal Audiophile

Do you have data to support your claim?

No, because it's too early to have data, this has only been with us for a few months at most. That said there's plenty of ancedotal evidence already. Simply look at the trends in NY

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/02/r...rice-drop.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/17/r...al-estate.html

[via chicago]

Originally Posted by Frugal Audiophile

Young people are the ones that determine the next "hot" area. Wherever they move will determine the next hot area.

Young people are not the ones buying these houses in the burbs. I haven't seen any data showing that young people are flocking to the burbs. None. Now middle aged people or people approaching middle age, thats a different story but they don't transform neighborhoods for the most part.

Oldest Millennials are pushing 40 and absolutely are driving decisions in the housing market.

The youngest kids aren't "driving" decisions, they're just getting pushed around and moving wherever they can afford. Cities were cheap in the early 00s, that's no longer the case. Many were willing to tolerate the high costs however because of social scenes, restaurants, cultural amenities like venues, etc. It was also where the jobs were. With permanent remote work being an increasing reality and the aforementioned amenities no longer being an option, who's willing to move cross country to be here? Some will, but between the increasing sense of being "trapped" (most apartments don't even have outdoor space, and parks/beaches are now a liability), and continued civil unrest ( to say nothing of Chicagos ongoing violence problem), people are going to yearn for more space. I say this as a lifelong urbanite

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by via chicago

No, because it's too early to have data, this has only been with us for a few months at most. That said there's plenty of ancedotal evidence already. Simply look at the trends in NY

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/02/r...rice-drop.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/17/r...al-estate.html

Since the coronavirus shut the city down, the number of sales in Manhattan dropped 54 percent and the median price fell to $1 million.

The high price of real estate in NYC is a major factor in this. Chicago's median home price is about $250,000 - 1/4 of that. As such, families have been moving from NYC for the suburbs once they have kids for decades. This nothing new.

NYC is also run by the worst Mayor in the U.S. He has declared war on his police department and cut its budget by $1 billion. He and his Governor have also done a very poor job managing the pandemic. I wouldn't blame anyone for wanting to get the hell out of there.

Lightfoot has her problems, no doubt, but she's not near the level of that kind of spectacular suckage. The socialists on our City Council are also a minority, at least for now. So compared to NYC, Seattle, LA and other large progressive cities, our police and the concept of law and order enjoy support still (very relatively speaking).

[MassVt]

Originally Posted by BRU67

Since the coronavirus shut the city down, the number of sales in Manhattan dropped 54 percent and the median price fell to $1 million.

The high price of real estate in NYC is a major factor in this. Chicago's median home price is about $250,000 - 1/4 of that. As such, families have been moving from NYC for the suburbs once they have kids for decades. This nothing new.

NYC is also run by the worst Mayor in the U.S. He has declared war on his police department and cut its budget by $1 billion. He and his Governor have also done a very poor job managing the pandemic. I wouldn't blame anyone for wanting to get the hell out of there.

Lightfoot has her problems, no doubt, but she's not near the level of that kind of spectacular suckage. The socialists on our City Council are also a minority, at least for now. So compared to NYC, Seattle, LA and other large progressive cities, our police and the concept of law and order enjoy support still (very relatively speaking).

Ridiculous. Cuomo has done an excellent job monitoring the COVID crisis, ( and he has the polls to prove it), in sharp contrast to the idiotic GOP governors in Florida, Texas and Georgia, where the disease is running rampant. All trying to curry favor with Trump, the biggest moron of all.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by MassVt

Ridiculous. Cuomo has done an excellent job monitoring the COVID crisis, ( and he has the polls to prove it), in sharp contrast to the idiotic GOP governors in Florida, Texas and Georgia, where the disease is running rampant. All trying to curry favor with Trump, the biggest moron of all.

New York has suffered 32,000 deaths from COVID. Florida has about 4,800, Georgia 3,100, and Texas about 4,000. The three states combined don't even come close to New York.

Worse, he ordered nursing homes to re-accept COVID positive patients, which brought them into contact with very vulnerable people in those facilities. His administration also did not require testing for those being admitted into nursing homes. The end result was over 6,000 dead nursing home residents, more than the total in any of the three Republican states you just cited.

I cite this as somebody with someone close to me in a nursing home. That is infuriating.

I don't see why Cuomo has become the darling of the media in terms of handling the virus. It is not deserved.

[dtcbnd03]

Just spoke to my real estate broker today who I've worked with for 10 years on various investment properties. Casually asked how he was doing and he said "slammed...the suburb flight is crazy right now". He said everyone who was thinking of moving to the burbs in the next 2-3 years has pushed it up to now. This will impact a lot of those single family, duplex downs that were making a lotta neighborhoods like Logan Square "hot" in the past.

[Kmanshouse]

Originally Posted by dtcbnd03

Just spoke to my real estate broker today who I've worked with for 10 years on various investment properties. Casually asked how he was doing and he said "slammed...the suburb flight is crazy right now". He said everyone who was thinking of moving to the burbs in the next 2-3 years has pushed it up to now. This will impact a lot of those single family, duplex downs that were making a lotta neighborhoods like Logan Square "hot" in the past.

This also might explain the FOR RENT signs that are all over the place in my neighborhood. I've never seen so many of them. People leaving their rentals because they can't afford rent. And not that many people wanting to fill the empties.

I will say though, not a lot of for sale signs. More like non-renewals of rentals.

[Kmanshouse]

Originally Posted by UptownGuy3

I can only give my anecdotal experience. I’m 26 and have a one bedroom apartment in a high rise. When all life effectively ground to a halt I went to stay with my parents for about 6-7 weeks just to stave off the boredom. I’ve been back in the city for about 7 weeks now. It seems that anyone I know who was staying with their parents for a bit are also back in the city now.

I can’t really say this whole thing has changed my personal perception of the city vs the suburbs. If anything being back in the suburbs kind of reinforced why I prefer urban living. My parents live in a prototypical McMansion style sprawl suburb. Having nothing within walking distance and needing a car to get my nearest national big box store or chain restaurant didn’t exactly make me long for a new car and a single family home.

Even being back in the city with most things still being closed has been preferable to the time I spent quarantined out in the suburbs. Being able to walk to the lakefront, and being able to walk to and support a diverse array of locally owned businesses again has been kind of nice. Now perhaps I’m an outlier, as I’m not personally afraid of getting the virus.

This is all temporary in my opinion. The 1918 Spanish flu was arguably a much more serious pandemic, and it was followed by the largest period of urbanization in our countries history, the 1920’s. So who knows really. But one thing I do know, you won’t catch my trying to move out to somewhere like Naperville or Orland Park anytime soon. Maybe if Joliet or Aurora gentrify their downtowns I could see towns like that having some appeal. But places built for and around automobiles as the only way to do anything are extremely unappealing to me still. And yes, I have been using the CTA since I got back into the city.

100% agree with everything you've said.

Needing a car to run errands to big box stores or go eat at Chili's is about the saddest existence I can imagine. The suburbs were great for the schools. Once my kids were through high school, we high tailed it to the city.

Went back to Naperville a few Saturdays ago, and while the downtown area is still very nice, I hated having to drive and park when going there. It's also just so overly laced with competition.

[dtcbnd03]

Yes UptownGuy3 is spot on for the young single, dating, newly married crowd. However, we must remember that very similar walkable amenities are available in mid tier cities at a much lower housing cost. We also must realize that for the last 100 years cities were where jobs were...like after the Spanish Flu...now with the internet, remote working and Zoom that is no longer the case. People can work from wherever.