The Next “Hot” Neighborhood (Normal, DeKalb: hotel, layoffs, to live)

[dlong1991]

I never thought of leaving the city until a few months ago. I really like it still, but the suburbs and the country are starting to look mighty fine to me. I guess being a musician and access to that type of network is what is keeping me here. If it weren't for that, i'd be getting the heck up out of here.

Maybe i'll try and go gentrify downtown Joliet or something. ha!

[Dport7674]

Originally Posted by Kmanshouse

Cleaning up a neighborhood and making it safe and fun to be in, doesn't require gentrification.

Yeah but who's going to do it? The people talking to themselves, the drug dealers, the people staring at your wife making her feel sketched out?

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by dtcbnd03

Here's an article from NPR on how city dwellers in NYC are flocking to the suburbs for more space. This is why there will not be a next "hot" neighborhood in Chicago for a while. Consumer behavior has dramatically shifted.

"We are seeing 20 offers on houses. We are seeing things going 30% over the asking price. It's kind of insane," Horowitz says. About 12 miles from New York City, Montclair is the kind of suburb that even appeals to demanding New Yorkers. It has yoga studios, restaurants locals can walk to, art galleries, even a film festival. It's always popular, but now on a completely different scale. "Every last bit of it is COVID-related," Horowitz says. New Yorkers aren't the only big city dwellers who have been decamping for suburbs, smaller cities and rural areas..."

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/08/88758...rs-may-be-next

New York City is run by arguably the worst mayor in the United States and is extremely expensive to boot, so couples have long been moving to suburbs there once they have kids, even as far out as Poughkeepsie. I don't know if I'd use NYC as a template for all cities.

[CCrest182]

Originally Posted by Frugal Audiophile

Rental prices in NYC are outrageous, nowhere near what they are in Chicago. The back to the city movement has been going on for decades, I don't see how a few weeks of protests is going to change that. You're talking about a major shift. It's still to soon to see but I seriously doubt the trend will reverse anytime soon.

Exactly. I see a hiccup definitely, but a trend reversal completely? I'm going to have to wait and see a little bit longer to believe it.

[via chicago]

covid is accelerating a lot of trends that probably would have happened anyway, but permanent remote work is a real thing that it likely here to stay for a lot of companies and industries. if you dont need to be along a rail line to get into the office and all your favorite bars/restaurants/venues have closed due to a recession/depression (and you cant even hang out with friends in groups), why stay? i think youre seeing millenials age out of their urban infatuations and theyre ready for more space and more nature. every trend swings back in the other direction after a while.

this isnt a little blip, people are going to emerge from this experience with real actual trauma, and i truly dont think urban living is going to be seen as appealing as it recently did.

[Dport7674]

Originally Posted by via chicago

covid is accelerating a lot of trends that probably would have happened anyway, but permanent remote work is a real thing that it likely here to stay for a lot of companies and industries. if you dont need to be along a rail line to get into the office and all your favorite bars/restaurants/venues have closed due to a recession/depression (and you cant even hang out with friends in groups), why stay? i think youre seeing millenials age out of their urban infatuations and theyre ready for more space and more nature. every trend swings back in the other direction after a while.

this isnt a little blip, people are going to emerge from this experience with real actual trauma, and i truly dont think urban living is going to be seen as appealing as it recently did.

Are these the same millennials who are always talking about being broke and not being able to afford home ownership, or find decent paying jobs, or being able to pay off their student loans?

Humans have short memories. Covid will be a distant memory before its even in the distant past. All the bars and restaurants that are forced to close will be opened up by new investors. People will go out again. Stadiums will be full. Concerts will be sold out.

[dtcbnd03]

I wonder if Chicago will simply experience a shift or sprawl within the city limits. I believe high rises will suffer greatly and people will favor the 2-3 flat walkups with a yard and more space. They still get the city living amenities but with more room to breath. Also, Chicago rents are static so far but I imagine when the wave of evictions hits it will fall (the wolfstreet article is a great one that shows rental markets % increases/decreases of all major cities as of July 1). Give it time and you'll see the shift from Chicago downtown to space...walk into any sporting goods store and everything outdoorsy is sold out so that's a telling sign. RVs, boats, bikes, camping gear, golf clubs, etc etc etc is all selling like crazy...basically all stuff that has nothing to do with city living.

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/07/01/re...digit-gainers/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-w...142522540.html

[personone]

Originally Posted by Dport7674

Are these the same millennials who are always talking about being broke and not being able to afford home ownership, or find decent paying jobs, or being able to pay off their student loans?

Humans have short memories. Covid will be a distant memory before its even in the distant past. All the bars and restaurants that are forced to close will be opened up by new investors. People will go out again. Stadiums will be full. Concerts will be sold out.

Disagree. I don't see this happening for another 2-3 years. There will first need to be a vaccine. I'm pretty sure that they are going to approve a version 1 vaccine (early 2021), but it will likely not be the most effective, although it should help greatly. But it will take at least 6 months to distribute to everyone globally. Again, the first iteration will likely not be the most effective, but by the following year, there will probably be a more effective version and that is when rates will likely fall tremendously (after another 6 months to distribute globally). This is at least a 3 year process though. There will be no crowded bars, stadiums, concerts, etc in the meantime.

In the meantime, the "new normal" will become ingrained in business, bars, restaurants, people in general, etc. So demand for the city lifestyle (people desiring high rises, car-free public transportation, etc.) will greatly decrease.

People are trying to be optimistic about things just going back to "normal," and I personally would love for that to be the case, but that is wishful thinking. Covid will not be a "distant memory." Its effects will be here to stay for the foreseeable future and this will alter traditional "city-life" as we knew it, here in Chicago and all over the country.

[Sunbiz1]

Originally Posted by personone

Disagree. I don't see this happening for another 2-3 years. There will first need to be a vaccine. I'm pretty sure that they are going to approve a version 1 vaccine (early 2021), but it will likely not be the most effective, although it should help greatly. But it will take at least 6 months to distribute to everyone globally. Again, the first iteration will likely not be the most effective, but by the following year, there will probably be a more effective version and that is when rates will likely fall tremendously (after another 6 months to distribute globally). This is at least a 3 year process though. There will be no crowded bars, stadiums, concerts, etc in the meantime.

In the meantime, the "new normal" will become ingrained in business, bars, restaurants, people in general, etc. So demand for the city lifestyle (people desiring high rises, car-free public transportation, etc.) will greatly decrease.

People are trying to be optimistic about things just going back to "normal," and I personally would love for that to be the case, but that is wishful thinking. Covid will not be a "distant memory." Its effects will be here to stay for the foreseeable future and this will alter traditional "city-life" as we knew it, here in Chicago and all over the country.

https://www.history.com/news/1918-sp...ing-resistance
Here in the U.S, we generally don't learn from our own history; I expect that trend to continue.
People aren't going to simply get used to wearing masks like they did a seat belt.

[personone]

Originally Posted by Sunbiz1

https://www.history.com/news/1918-sp...ing-resistance
Here in the U.S, we generally don't learn from our own history; I expect that trend to continue.
People aren't going to simply get used to wearing masks like they did a seat belt.

Right, but that was 100 years ago. I am sure 100 years from now, the effects of COVID will be over (assuming that another pandemic/world event doesn't popup to "remind" us), but I am talking more about the "near future."

For the next 5-10 years, I am guessing there will be behavioral and psychological effects of COVID that still linger. 9-11 was more limited to airports/travel, but the behavioral impacts of that still linger to some extent, although again, that was an event confined to airports/planes.

The fact that the effects of COVID have been more widespread, and it will take a number of years for those to go away. I think once there is a wide spread (global) effective vaccine that has been distributed to everyone, and once public health surveillance shows that the disease has effectively been eradicated, that is when you will likely see life go back to "normal." Although, this will likely take many years. There may be some general habits (i.e. less general crowding, etc) that stay, and certain habits (people desiring more space and less crowding) may become ingrained.

100 years from now, you are probably correct, that it will look like we didn't learn from our history (and the trend will continue).