[RonaldusMagnus]

Originally Posted by BobNJ1960

Not impossible if the other 1.4 million voters overrode the special interest group known as Public Employee unions.


Also not impossible if you elect someone with integrity, who cares about the state, more than his political office.

I agree in theory, but in practice it is very difficult in these northeastern states to not get the backing of the public sector unions when running. And to get that backing, it is whoever will give em the most. This is the reason the can gets kicked down the road. No one has the cajones to make tough choices. On a federal level you see this with Social Security. Political third rail to offer reform but about as backward a program you could possibly think up.

[BobNJ1960]

Originally Posted by RonaldusMagnus

I agree in theory, but in practice it is very difficult in these northeastern states to not get the backing of the public sector unions when running. And to get that backing, it is whoever will give em the most. This is the reason the can gets kicked down the road. No one has the cajones to make tough choices. On a federal level you see this with Social Security. Political third rail to offer reform but about as backward a program you could possibly think up.

While not a great gov overall, Christie has been tough and fair with public unions, and NJ voters had his back.

[hartford_renter]

Originally Posted by FunkOdyssey

Your repeated appeals to authority are not a compelling argument. Do you have anything more convincing?

Sure here is an article that estimates 85% of pensions will go bankrupt in 30 years if the rate of return is 4%
85% of Pension Funds Will Go Bust Within 30 Years - GoldCore Gold Bullion Dealer

The CT pension plan is less than 50% funded and is the third worst funded in the entire country. This tells me that CT will be one of the first in the country to go bust.

The future returns of the market are low because bond returns are low. An 8% return is not sustainable and even if it were to occur the current funds CT has will only pay for 50% of future benefits.

If the return is 6% CT funds will pay for <50% benefits. I guess you need to look at the duration of the pension plan to estimate how big an impact a 6% return will have.

Assume the payments are made 20 years into the future at 8%, then a 6% return will reduce the payments by

1.06/1.08 ^ 20 = .688

So the real underfunding is .688 * 50% = 34%

Our plan is funded 34% with a estimated return of 6% it is going bankrupt. But please let me know how you think this is going to end.

[Henry10]

Originally Posted by hartford_renter

Sure here is an article that estimates 85% of pensions will go bankrupt in 30 years if the rate of return is 4%
85% of Pension Funds Will Go Bust Within 30 Years - GoldCore Gold Bullion Dealer

The CT pension plan is less than 50% funded and is the third worst funded in the entire country. This tells me that CT will be one of the first in the country to go bust.

The future returns of the market are low because bond returns are low. An 8% return is not sustainable and even if it were to occur the current funds CT has will only pay for 50% of future benefits.

If the return is 6% CT funds will pay for <50% benefits. I guess you need to look at the duration of the pension plan to estimate how big an impact a 6% return will have.

Assume the payments are made 20 years into the future at 8%, then a 6% return will reduce the payments by

1.06/1.08 ^ 20 = .688

So the real underfunding is .688 * 50% = 34%

Our plan is funded 34% with a estimated return of 6% it is going bankrupt. But please let me know how you think this is going to end.

Historical rate of return for CT pension fund is 5.5%. Excellent returns of the 90s and early 2000s skew that number.

I would use a 4% number going forward. If it's low, let it be conservative.

[JayCT]

Originally Posted by hartford_renter

Sure here is an article that estimates 85% of pensions will go bankrupt in 30 years if the rate of return is 4%
85% of Pension Funds Will Go Bust Within 30 Years - GoldCore Gold Bullion Dealer

The CT pension plan is less than 50% funded and is the third worst funded in the entire country. This tells me that CT will be one of the first in the country to go bust.

The future returns of the market are low because bond returns are low. An 8% return is not sustainable and even if it were to occur the current funds CT has will only pay for 50% of future benefits.

If the return is 6% CT funds will pay for <50% benefits. I guess you need to look at the duration of the pension plan to estimate how big an impact a 6% return will have.

Assume the payments are made 20 years into the future at 8%, then a 6% return will reduce the payments by

1.06/1.08 ^ 20 = .688

So the real underfunding is .688 * 50% = 34%

Our plan is funded 34% with a estimated return of 6% it is going bankrupt. But please let me know how you think this is going to end.

Your reference is a website that promotes buying gold as a hedge against future financial drops. Not exactly a reliable source. Jay

[kidyankee764]

Originally Posted by JayCT

Your reference is a website that promotes buying gold as a hedge against future financial drops. Not exactly a reliable source. Jay

I give you credit for continuing to put your effort toward rebutting the "doomsday" posts. I gave up, mostly because there is no reasoning with people who have an agenda.

[BobNJ1960]

Originally Posted by hartford_renter

The CT pension plan is less than 50% funded and is the third worst funded in the entire country. This tells me that CT will be one of the first in the country to go bust.

The future returns of the market are low because bond returns are low. An 8% return is not sustainable and even if it were to occur the current funds CT has will only pay for 50% of future benefits.

If the return is 6% CT funds will pay for <50% benefits. I guess you need to look at the duration of the pension plan to estimate how big an impact a 6% return will have.

Assume the payments are made 20 years into the future at 8%, then a 6% return will reduce the payments by

1.06/1.08 ^ 20 = .688

So the real underfunding is .688 * 50% = 34%

Our plan is funded 34% with a estimated return of 6% it is going bankrupt. But please let me know how you think this is going to end.

Excellent analysis. For too long, states have been burying their head in the sand, with left-wing support as they would not want costs reined in. I have little doubt Illinois will be the game changer, as the 1st state to be bankrupt, but Ct's pension woes are not much less dire than Illinois.

[hartford_renter]

Originally Posted by JayCT

Your reference is a website that promotes buying gold as a hedge against future financial drops. Not exactly a reliable source. Jay

Wrong again Jay.

It is analysis based on a study by Bridgewater Associates which is a hedge fund, the website did not do the study.

[GoHuskies]

Connecticut will raise taxes and cut spending before the state considers bankruptcy.

[GoHuskies]

Originally Posted by BobNJ1960

While not a great gov overall, Christie has been tough and fair with public unions, and NJ voters had his back.

You must have meant to type Christie lied to public unions and is very unpopular in his state.