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[quote=bobtn;37651753]No, censusdata, it is about demographics and the reality that what excites the GOP base turns off a majority of POTUS voters in key swing states.[/QUOTE
Good post, but they won't believe you. There's a lot of Earl Landgreibs on this board. He was the Republican congressman from Indiana who was a dead ender for Nixon who gained fame when he answered a reporter's query about Watergate with "Don't confuse me with the facts".
Last edited by Bureaucat; 12-16-2014 at 07:49 AM..
I think what drove the turnout among blacks, the image of 'one of their own' - a black man running - trumps any real or imagined benefits they might receive. Racial pride, simply put. I can understand it. So, I disagree with you on that point.
That as well as the 'cool factor' among young voters, the assuaging 'white guilt' and 'justice', among white liberals. Dissatisfaction among others.
All in all, a powerful convergence of factors. Unlikely to ever be repeated.
But the chance for a woman as President relates to these same issues.
P.S. A LOT of Obama supporters developed a real dislike for Hillary from the primaries and to this day regard her as the corporate shill that she is. I see that and her lack of charisma and age (before you cry think about what they said about McCain) hurt her to. The right HATES her and will come out in droves to vote, I don't see her motivating the left to vote like Obama did.
#3 has commonly been taken out of context. Truth is that American taxpayers have funded the Interstate Highway system, internet, medical and drug research, etc. Business entrepreneurs have taken significant start-up risk, but they did enjoy some help with the support of the vast taxpayer-supported system. I understood that.
#10. I wasn't aware that Las Vegas is DEAD? Really? There is an endless supply of hotels/convention centers on the Strip. Casino billionaire Sheldon Adelson did this to himself!! (If true). A smart businessman would at least make an attempt to "play both sides" rather than leverage all of his large donations on one side (Repubs). Why would ANY Dem-leaning organization wish to put $$ into the pockets of someone who is donating his largesse to eliminate or damage them? That's what free enterprise is about.
#10 - You are looking at it through 2014 eyes;
President Obama is catching heat from Nevada lawmakers and business leaders regarding his comments Tuesday criticizing trips to Las Vegas. During the president's town hall meeting in Nashua, New Hampshire, he discussed the need to curb spending during tough economic times. "When times are tough, you tighten your belts," the president said. "You don't go buying a boat when you can barely pay your mortgage. You don't blow a bunch of cash on Vegas when you're trying to save for college." The president's comments come nearly a year after he criticized companies that received federal money for taking corporate junkets to Las Vegas. "You can't go take that trip to Las Vegas or go down to the Super Bowl on taxpayers' dime," he said at the time. Local business leaders say Nevada tourism suffered last year in part because companies canceled trips to Las Vegas in the wake of the president's comments.
As far as Number #3 goes, "taken out of context" is what people usually say when they're caught saying something that really disturbs others...especially ones that work hard and put in long hours.
P.S. A LOT of Obama supporters developed a real dislike for Hillary from the primaries and to this day regard her as the corporate shill that she is. I see that and her lack of charisma and age (before you cry think about what they said about McCain) hurt her to. The right HATES her and will come out in droves to vote, I don't see her motivating the left to vote like Obama did.
I don't believe HRC will run. She appears unwell in some of her public appearances of which she's hardly done any since leaving SoS. I believe she went a year+ not making any public appearances before she gave a speech last year this time. If she does run I don't see her having the stamina for a brutal campaign schedule.
As for the minority vote, it is not reliably democratic when it comes to asians (including southeast asians) and hispanics, and blacks won't be rallied like they were for obama unless there is another AA on the ticket (some people have been predicting HRC-cory booker ticket but I don't see it).
What states are they gonna flip against Hillary anyway?
Republicans have a clear disadvantage in presidential elections now. Mitt Romney won the South by comical margins among white voters and it didn't matter one bit. Obama lost in the white vote in Mississippi 90-10 percent (it was 87-12 in Alabama)! Nationwide, Romney won the white vote by the same margin as Ronald Reagan in 1980 but still lost. Now democrats start presidential elections with at least 210 votes guaranteed (no need to even campaign in those states). Remember that Hillary will perform way better than Obama did with white voters (especially white women).
What states are they gonna flip against Hillary anyway?
Republicans have a clear disadvantage in presidential elections now. Mitt Romney won the South by comical margins among white voters and it didn't matter one bit. Obama lost in the white vote in Mississippi 90-10 percent (it was 87-12 in Alabama)! Nationwide, Romney won the white vote by the same margin as Ronald Reagan in 1980 but still lost. Now democrats start presidential elections with at least 210 votes guaranteed (no need to even campaign in those states). Remember that Hillary will perform way better than Obama did with white voters (especially white women).
you based this on what? in the last 4 presidential elections both parties have split 2-2 victories in the electoral college.
How do you know Hillary will perform better than Obama? its going to be hard for a party to win the WH 3 times in a row with a weak economy. You don't have Bush to blame for the economy and Hillary has to keep her distance away from Obama while not pissing off the black vote and the liberal base of the party and she has to defend Obama's unpopular policies like Obamacare and flip flop a lot on her hawkish foreign policy stand to win her base.
The fact is the nation likes her husband a lot better than her and that's her problem. Hillary is NOOOO Bill in charisma.
I predict Hillary will make the same mistakes as 2008 and look fake and a flip flopper when she has to defend her vote and record and the nation will reject her but I don't blame the Democrats, they don't have anybody else. Biden is a loser and the nation have always rejected a liberals from Mass, so Elizabeth Warren is another democrat defeat like Dukakis and Kerry.
I don't disagree with you on your basic point. Where we may differ, is that I think the 'hangover' of an ineffective Presidency that was won on 'racial pride' and 'wouldn't be cool' factors taint the well. Making it unlikely that the majority of voters would fall for that line of thinking and voting again. At least in the next couple of cycles. You could be right, or I could.
We'll know in about two years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Francois
But the chance for a woman as President relates to these same issues.
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