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Old 02-21-2016, 06:56 PM
 
Location: 500 miles from home
33,942 posts, read 22,624,095 times
Reputation: 25817

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Quote:
Originally Posted by mightleavenyc View Post
Theres no point in using 2012 as a baseline for anything. Theres no Obama this time.
Do you think Trump is going to gather more of the minority vote than Romney?

I'm not seeing it.

 
Old 02-21-2016, 08:59 PM
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Location: Western Massachusetts
45,983 posts, read 53,713,879 times
Reputation: 15184
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
Trump will win the all-important Mass hole vote. His campaign manager is from Lowell.
Looks like it:

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/s...97982194540544
 
Old 02-21-2016, 09:06 PM
 
347 posts, read 469,982 times
Reputation: 401
Florida, Ohio and Virginia are the key. Those states will have to go red in this election or else Hillary wins. Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Jersey, and especially Massachusetts absolutely will not be red this election. Forget about the Pacific coast states as well minus Alaska. The Dems will control the Northeast, the northern Midwest and the Pacific states.
 
Old 02-21-2016, 09:29 PM
 
Location: Earth
1,529 posts, read 1,735,593 times
Reputation: 1877
Quote:
Originally Posted by TxStorm72 View Post
Florida, Ohio and Virginia are the key. Those states will have to go red in this election or else Hillary wins. Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Jersey, and especially Massachusetts absolutely will not be red this election. Forget about the Pacific coast states as well minus Alaska. The Dems will control the Northeast, the northern Midwest and the Pacific states.
The only Northeast state Trump might win is NH. That's about it.
 
Old 02-21-2016, 09:41 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
42,813 posts, read 26,523,120 times
Reputation: 34088
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
Only one demographic block votes for a single party. In 1970 they made up 11.7% of population. Today it's 13%. So this point is irrelevant.
Democrats haven't won in landslide fashion in more than 50 years. There is no such thing as a "Latino" vote because they don't block vote together.
I think it's fair to call Obama's 2012 win a landslide

1. Barack Obama has won an overwhelming majority in the Electoral College, a daunting majority of the popular vote and a majority of the nation’s states—including most of the country’s largest states and states in every major region of the republic: New England, the mid-Atlantic, the Great Lakes, the South, the Southwest, the Mountain West and the West.

2. Barack Obama has won more popular votes than any Democratic candidate for president in history—except Barack Obama in 2008.

3. Barack Obama is the first Democratic president to win more than 50 percent of the popular vote in a re-election run since Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1944.

4. Barack Obama is the only Democratic candidate for president since FDR to twice win more than 50 percent of the national vote.

5. Barack Obama has, in both of his presidential runs, won a higher percentage of the national vote than any Democratic nominee since Lyndon Johnson in his 1964 landslide victory.

Obama’s 3 Million Vote, Electoral College Landslide, Majority of States Mandate | The Nation
 
Old 02-21-2016, 09:48 PM
 
Location: North America
14,204 posts, read 12,330,333 times
Reputation: 5565
Quote:
Originally Posted by PCALMike View Post
Sadly, too many Hillary supporters are deluded about her electability. She is getting absolutely crushed among independents and young voters against her opponent, especially in general election swing states, and she doesnt have the hispanic vote either. Her firewall of African Americans are LESS enthusiastic about her than they were with Obama so she cant count on record numbers coming out to vote for her in that group either. Nevertheless, her supporters think she is an excellent general election candidate who can re-create some type of Obama coalition. Forgive them, they dont know what they are doing.
She doesn't have to get them. The demographics of the general election increasingly favor the Democrats. It's the Republicans that have to keep doing better if they need to win and not the Democrats. This election will have 2.5 percent less whites as a share of the total electorate than in 2012. Which means the GOP nominee has to do better among them to even capture the same voter share as Romney did. I also don't know how she is getting "crushed" in swing states when none of voted yet. Young voters don't matter anyway, because they rarely show up in the numbers people hope.
 
Old 02-21-2016, 09:50 PM
 
Location: North America
14,204 posts, read 12,330,333 times
Reputation: 5565
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
Only one demographic block votes for a single party. In 1970 they made up 11.7% of population. Today it's 13%. So this point is irrelevant.

No, but they tend to favor Democrats in general. Rubio/Trump will need to capture a large portion of them in order to win the election.
 
Old 02-21-2016, 09:56 PM
 
Location: North America
14,204 posts, read 12,330,333 times
Reputation: 5565
Quote:
Originally Posted by TxStorm72 View Post
Florida, Ohio and Virginia are the key. Those states will have to go red in this election or else Hillary wins. Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Jersey, and especially Massachusetts absolutely will not be red this election. Forget about the Pacific coast states as well minus Alaska. The Dems will control the Northeast, the northern Midwest and the Pacific states.
No they need either Nevada or Colorado as well. The Dems only need to win 23 states and D.C. The Republicans need at least 27 to win.
 
Old 02-21-2016, 10:00 PM
 
1,057 posts, read 871,837 times
Reputation: 792
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
Based on the fact that Hillary and the Democrats have lost the Middle Class, she is facing landslide losses.

The electoral map will be completely changed.

http://overpassesforamerica.com/wp-c...ctoral-map.png
I laughed so hard at this
 
Old 02-21-2016, 10:04 PM
 
2,886 posts, read 5,846,598 times
Reputation: 1885
Quote:
Originally Posted by ~HecateWhisperCat~ View Post
No they need either Nevada or Colorado as well. The Dems only need to win 23 states and D.C. The Republicans need at least 27 to win.
I don't see Cruz winning Nevada or Colorado in the general, same thing with Rubio. Love him or hate him Trump is the only Republican candidate that can get independent and democrat voters to vote for him. I just don't see independent or democrat voters voting for Rubio much less Cruz.
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