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I most often think that it is too late for this solution among the "indigenous" population in the countries of early industrialization, sterilized by its own wealth.
Care to outline any scenarios as to why it may not be too late?
No scenarios. Just experience and track record. Look up any data that overlays fertility rate to GDP growth -- fertility rate follows GDP growth very closely.
However, I am not sure why anybody would need this data. It's very simple, people have more babies when economic times are good.
As a species, for million of years evolution has sharpened and tuned us to be reproduction machines. Actually, it is unnatural to not re-produce. Those who didn't, didn't get to survive and pass their sterile genes to the offspring.
So Germans and others not reproducing are fighting very strong biological headwinds. Socialism neuters economic growth, which strengthens the unnatural resistance to reproduction. Socialism is a fight-to-the-death with evolution.
No scenarios. Just experience and track record. Look up any data that overlays fertility rate to GDP growth -- fertility rate follows GDP growth very closely.
However, I am not sure why anybody would need this data. It's very simple, people have more babies when economic times are good.
As a species, for million of years evolution has sharpened and tuned us to be reproduction machines. Actually, it is unnatural to not re-produce. Those who didn't, didn't get to survive and pass their sterile genes to the offspring.
So Germans and others not reproducing are fighting very strong biological headwinds. Socialism lowers economic growth, which strengthens the unnatural resistance to reproduction. Socialism is a fight-to-the-death with evolution.
I doubt that concept. Countries with extreme poverty have extremely high birth rates, while developed industrial countries usually have low birth rates, such as Japan, South Korea, Germany, ...
Why do we need more people on the earth? That does not make much sense. Technology is already developed enough to produce more than one needs without a huge labour force of millions of immigrants or low-skilled workers.
I do not think that fewer and fewer people have to supply an ever-growing number of non-working people. and that this of course that will lead to a much lower living standard in Germany. This is rather a redistribution problem (capital as a production factor is in the hands of very rich people) than a demographic problem. Our production systems are able to produce food for everyone with almost no workers and automatization will continue even more. From the field to the refrigerator, food will be produced almost without any human interaction. So human beings can concentrate on what they are made for: Thinking.
I doubt that concept. Countries with extreme poverty have extremely high birth rates...
That's very normal, from an evolutionary perspective -- societies further behind on the development curve need more births, first as compensation for high infant mortality rates, and secondly for more work and war hands to survive a brutal environment.
More developed societies do not have some of the survival pressures of the poor societies. The question really is -- which societies are over the threshold -- demographic growth or dwindling.
Very true. We've been saying this in this forum for a long time. Some posters never accepted this.
I think it will actually get worse when the other shoe will drop -- US at one point will no longer provide national defense to Europe, and countries like Germany will need to defend themselves --military spending. And Germany will not have two pennies to rub together.
The contribution of the U.S. to the defence of Europe is negligible. Raising defence spending from 1% of GDP to 2% of GDP is not a big task. Buying foreign made equipment can even help to reduce the current account surplus.
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There is only solution to Germany's death spiral -- Capitalism, eradication of socialists / Socialism who are assassinating Germany. And it has to be comprehensive -- economic, political, ideological, etc.
Capitalism, aka. economic growth will improve fertility rate. It always has.
Utterly nonsense. Germany is a free market economy and not socialistic. There is not a single socialistic country in the EU. It doesn't matter how the social security system is financed. At the end the working population has to provide the non-working population.
Countries with a more comprehensive welfare system like the Scandinavian countries, Germany or the Netherlands have a higher employment rate than the U.S.
If economic growth would lead to higher fertility rates, then the Eastern European countries wouldn't have such low fertility rates. Sociopolitical more advanced countries have normally a lower fertility rate than more backwardly countries.
It is not that we can just say boost the GDP by getting rid of all those socialist junk (which I would prefer anyways) and then fertility rate goes up.
Why do you think that if I had more money, I would not spend it within Germany? For better cars, bigger houses, etc? Why do I have to go to other countries to spend my money? We do not have any shortage in goods or services. If there would be higher demand for certain goods, our productivities would allow to produce more. We do not need more people, simply because there are many many things that could be done automatcially without worker. I think the whole world would be better off, if they had the demographic development of German instead of population explosions i countries where people get 8 children even though they cannot feed 2. 2-3 bn people in the world would be perfectly fine. Technology allows us to produce enough for everyone.
Regarding the huge current account surplus, there is no lack of money in Germany. The huge current account surplus is financed by domestic saving.
At the moment the demographic structure in Germany is economically very advantageous. The baby boomers are still in the work force. The ratio of working population to the overall population was never higher than today. At the moment there is no shortage of goods and services in Germany. But that will change. We are talking about the demographic development of Germany but most people are unaware that the effect on the work force hasn't arrived yet. But that will change in the next years. Age groups with 1.4m people will retire but age groups with just about 0.8m people will enter the work force. That will be a net loss of about 600,000 employees, per year (ignoring gains from immigration). The decline in the working population will not be offset by gains in productivity. Other countries will also increase their productivity. In relation to other countries the living standard in Germany will shrink.
We do not need more people but we need our products and services from our trade surplusses back. Or do you think it's ok when we give our products and services to other countries without a reward? Please explain to the workers in our auto plants that they have worked for nothing. I doubt that the U.S. or the UK will ever be willing to work more to provide us with more goods and services than we provide them. I doubt that they will reduce their consumption to provide us with goods and services.
However, I am not sure why anybody would need this data. It's very simple, people have more babies when economic times are good.
The last 10 years were economically the best years Germany ever had. But the fertility rate was never so low.
There are many different reasons why some countries have higher birth rates, whereas other countries have lower birth rates. But it has definitely nothing to do with GDP growth.
Birth rates seem more correlated to education or religiosity. Better educated people tend to haver fewer children. More religious people tend to have more babies.
The contribution of the U.S. to the defence of Europe is negligible. Raising defence spending from 1% of GDP to 2% of GDP is not a big task. Buying foreign made equipment can even help to reduce the current account surplus.
US provides over 70% of the military readiness for NATO.
Turkey has 700,000 active military. US has over a million. Russia close to it. Germany has 50,000. Even NYC has more cops than that.
Again, you can't think that as it is right now -- things will never change. Germany is woefully equipped militarily.
If geopolitical winds change (which they always do), Germany not only may need to spend a lot more, it will actually need to catch up first. Then keep up.
Due to fiscal problems, Germany is in a checkmate strategically, if US was to pull the chair from underneath.
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Originally Posted by lukas1973
Utterly nonsense. Germany is a free market economy and not socialistic. There is not a single socialistic country in the EU. It doesn't matter how the social security system is financed. At the end the working population has to provide the non-working population.
Countries with a more comprehensive welfare system like the Scandinavian countries, Germany or the Netherlands have a higher employment rate than the U.S.
Oh, ok. You convinced me.
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Originally Posted by lukas1973
If economic growth would lead to higher fertility rates, then the Eastern European countries wouldn't have such low fertility rates. Sociopolitical more advanced countries have normally a lower fertility rate than more backwardly countries.
You're comparing apples to oranges. Eastern European countries (or even India or China) are not at the same stage of development the Germany is. Different factors are at play.
You should compare Germany to Japan, Canada, US, GB, etc.
LOL, Germany don't has fiscal problems. Last year the budget surplus was 0.8% of GDP. Using this money plus a very moderate budget deficit of just 1% of GDP could increase military spending from about 1.2% to 3.0% of GDP.
You have been watching too much Fox. We have our Americans friends ready for our defense. You don't want Germans to transform Mercedes and Audis into Leopards, do you? Americans have their war-defense industry and they need wars, Europe only needs to sell weapons to the best buyer. Capisce?
As to fertility rate, according to Addie..."untermensch have higher fertility rates"...and then he pushed people into being hares, really, you are threading over the same idiocies.
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