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I think that fast growing MSAs that don't currently have a CSA are the most likely to gain new CSA status. A MSA like Austin is a perfect example. As the MSA grows, it's going to eventually activate edge development in some adjacent counties that could become part of the metro through the CSA designation.
All this talk about combining existing MSAs and CSAs to create massive new CSAs seem like a really unlikely scenario at this point.
I absolutely expect that some existing CSAs and MSAs will change but I don't see them as being fundamentally revolutionary, rather evolutionary.
2023? New CSA boundaries from OMB are coming out next year!
See Section 10(e) of OMB guidance here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surv...standards.html
"(e) The Office of Management and Budget will review the delineations of all existing CBSAs and related statistical areas in 2018 using 2011–2015 5-year commuting and employment estimates from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. The urbanized areas and urban clusters used in these delineations will be those based on 2010 Census data or subsequent special censuses for which urban areas are created. The central counties of CBSAs identified on the basis of a 2010 Census population count, or on the basis of population estimates from the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program or a special census count in the case of postcensally delineated areas, will constitute the central counties for purposes of the these area delineations. New CBSAs will be designated in 2018 on the basis of Census Bureau special census counts or population estimates as described above in Sections 10(b) and 10(c); outlying county qualification will be based on 5-year commuting estimates from the American Community Survey."
Interesting the OMB is doing a mid-cycle update to the CBSA delineations. I wonder if they will finally undo the split of the Raleigh and Durham MSAs back into one MSA instead of two MSAs in the same CSA.
So they think that Worcester will be absorbed into Boston’s MSA? That’s kind of interesting. They do make a mistake, though: they say that Boston’s CSA is a combination of 3 MSA’s (Boston, Worcester, and Providence), but it’s actually 5 MSAs. They missed Nashua/Manchester and Barnstable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qworldorder
Is Portland really that intertwined with Greater Boston (already one of the most sprawling metros in the country)?
I know of two people in my area at work who commute to our office in Boston’s northern suburbs from southern ME. Not as far as Portland, I think, but from the more southern cities like Kennebunkport/Biddeford.
I could see Portland getting pumped in with Boston within my lifetime, but I don’t think we’re there yet. And covid‘s making remote work more common may even slow down that process. I’ll add, though, that Portland’s only a little further from Boston than Milwaukee is from Chicago, and lots of people seem to expect the latter merger to happen soon at the CSA level.
The Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura and Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario MSAs are eligible to merge into the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif. MSA.
The Ogden-Clearfield and Provo-Orem MSAs will likely join the Salt Lake City, Utah MSA.
Worcester, MA-CT will join Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
The [other] emerging megaregion that will likely meet the OMB standard soon is in California: the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward MSA and the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara MSA. As of 2017, the MSA containing San Jose already draws 22.6% of its workers from the San Francisco-Oakland MSA. If this trend continues, eventually these two MSAs will be merged by OMB.
That will put the 'Los Angeles-Venture-Riverside' MSA at 18,710,00
That will put the 'San Fran-Oakland-San Jose' MSA at 6,721,660
That will put the 'Boston-Worcester-Nashua' MSA at 5,820,400.
The issue here with Boston is this would include parts of NE Connecticut and SE New Hampshire in the MSA while excluding much of SEMA and all of Rhode Island.
One could drive directly west from Plymouth MA, drive out of the Boston MSA in Wrentham, MA and come back into it in Putnam CT...Worcesters MSA was recently expanded to include NE Connecticut. That's obviously, nonsensical.
So they think that Worcester will be absorbed into Boston’s MSA? That’s kind of interesting. They do make a mistake, though: they say that Boston’s CSA is a combination of 3 MSA’s (Boston, Worcester, and Providence), but it’s actually 5 MSAs. They missed Nashua/Manchester and Barnstable.
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That will put the 'Boston-Worcester-Nashua' MSA at 5,820,400.
Does the article think Nashua-Manchester will be absorbed into the MSA?
Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade
The issue here with Boston is this would include parts of NE Connecticut and SE New Hampshire in the MSA while excluding much of SEMA and all of Rhode Island.
Would it be possible for Worcester County to be added to the MSA and Windham County to remain CSA or is it an all-or-nothing kind of deal?
I wonder something similar re:Portland’s MSA and Boston’s CSA. Could just York County be added to the CSA and not Cumberland County?
I’ll add, though, that Portland’s only a little further from Boston than Milwaukee is from Chicago, and lots of people seem to expect the latter merger to happen soon at the CSA level.
Heh, driving 50 miles across Racine County, Wisconsin is an altogether different experience than driving 50 miles in the North Shore
Heh, driving 50 miles across Racine County, Wisconsin is an altogether different experience than driving 50 miles in the North Shore
True, but it’s a bit weird that Somersworth, NH is in Boston’s MSA but Kittery, ME isn’t even in its CSA.
Like I said, I don’t think we’re there now or even close, but there’s a chance it happens in my lifetime.
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