Illinois is headed for disaster and I don't want to be here for it (Hinsdale: how much, maintenance)

[Bitey]

Let's see what a few minutes worth of due diligence turns up...

• 749 E 7th St S: Sold in 2006 for 785K; sold again in 2018 for 650K.
  
• 404 58th Pl # B2E: Sold in 2003 for 768K; sold again in 2008 for 248K; sold again in 2018 for 220K.
  
• 5703 Foxgate Lane: Sold in 2001 for 700K; sold again in 2018 for 488K.
  
• 525 Morris Lane: Sold in 2006 for 1.37M; sold again in 2018 for 314K.
  
• 225 Indian Trail Road, Unit 6C: Sold in 2006 for 740K; sold again in 2018 for 530K.
  
• 551 Phillippa St: Sold in 2005 for 500K; sold again in 2018 for 355K.

... so yeah, wase4711's scenario doesn't sound too far-fetched to me.

[Grlzrl]

Originally Posted by Bitey

Let's see what a few minutes worth of due diligence turns up...

• 749 E 7th St S: Sold in 2006 for 785K; sold again in 2018 for 650K.
  
• 404 58th Pl # B2E: Sold in 2003 for 768K; sold again in 2008 for 248K; sold again in 2018 for 220K.
  
• 5703 Foxgate Lane: Sold in 2001 for 700K; sold again in 2018 for 488K.
  
• 525 Morris Lane: Sold in 2006 for 1.37M; sold again in 2018 for 314K.
  
• 225 Indian Trail Road, Unit 6C: Sold in 2006 for 740K; sold again in 2018 for 530K.
  
• 551 Phillippa St: Sold in 2005 for 500K; sold again in 2018 for 355K.

... so yeah, wase4711's scenario doesn't sound too far-fetched to me.

Agree. People just don't want to see it.

[fusillirob1983]

Originally Posted by Bitey

Let's see what a few minutes worth of due diligence turns up...
[list]
[*]525 Morris Lane: Sold in 2006 for 1.37M; sold again in 2018 for 314K.

That's some research, but even for individual properties, you'd probably need far more due diligence than just looking at buy/sell prices as sufficient due diligence to support what wase stated. He may be one of those that just wanted to sell and get out as he seems to be saying. At the same time, if a house sold in Hinsdale for $1.37 million, even at the peak of the bubble, it shouldn't sell for $314k in 2018 simply due to a dropping market.

Not much time to look at all those, but this one stood out.
Looking at Google maps, for starters, there's a basketball half court in the yard. I would imagine there had to be some other major physical issues with that house if that truly was the 2018 sale price.

[Bitey]

Originally Posted by fusillirob1983

That's some research, but even for individual properties, you'd probably need far more due diligence than just looking at buy/sell prices as sufficient due diligence to support what wase stated. He may be one of those that just wanted to sell and get out as he seems to be saying. At the same time, if a house sold in Hinsdale for $1.37 million, even at the peak of the bubble, it shouldn't sell for $314k in 2018 simply due to a dropping market.

Not much time to look at all those, but this one stood out.
Looking at Google maps, for starters, there's a basketball half court in the yard. I would imagine there had to be some other major physical issues with that house if that truly was the 2018 sale price.

My list wasn't intended to be an exhaustive survey of the Hinsdale real estate landscape or even a statistically accurate sampling. It was intended to put to rest the blustering from those treating wase4711's claim as absolutely impossible. Well, no it's not absolutely impossible if I can turn up these examples with about 10 minutes worth of research.

[fusillirob1983]

Originally Posted by Bitey

My list wasn't intended to be an exhaustive survey of the Hinsdale real estate landscape or even a statistically accurate sampling. It was intended to put to rest the blustering from those treating wase4711's claim as absolutely impossible. Well, no it's not absolutely impossible if I can turn up these examples with about 10 minutes worth of research.

I completely agree it's not impossible. I don't have a dog in this fight. However, anyone looking at this objectively would consider that an outlier and exclude it from data or examples. Some of the others you brought up could be similar to wase's situation, though.

[My Kind Of Town]

Originally Posted by Bitey

Let's see what a few minutes worth of due diligence turns up...

• 749 E 7th St S: Sold in 2006 for 785K; sold again in 2018 for 650K.
  
• 404 58th Pl # B2E: Sold in 2003 for 768K; sold again in 2008 for 248K; sold again in 2018 for 220K.
  
• 5703 Foxgate Lane: Sold in 2001 for 700K; sold again in 2018 for 488K.
  
• 525 Morris Lane: Sold in 2006 for 1.37M; sold again in 2018 for 314K.
  
• 225 Indian Trail Road, Unit 6C: Sold in 2006 for 740K; sold again in 2018 for 530K.
  
• 551 Phillippa St: Sold in 2005 for 500K; sold again in 2018 for 355K.

... so yeah, wase4711's scenario doesn't sound too far-fetched to me.

1. 17% loss and 2006 prices were 5-10% higher already than 2005 prices..
2. Sold in 2008 for $248k. Where do you see $768k?
3. Sold in 2001 for $350k. Where do you see $700k?
4. Has not sold since 2006. Where do you see $314k?
5. Is this even in Hinsdale?
6. 29% - THIS is your only good example and clearly a case of someone paying well above market rate in 2005! Maybe THIS was Wase's home??? For someone to pay 1/2 million in 2005 for a tear down essentially is nuts...https://www.redfin.com/IL/Hinsdale/5.../home/14061171

Well, at least we figured out where Wase lived...

[My Kind Of Town]

Originally Posted by fusillirob1983

That's some research, but even for individual properties, you'd probably need far more due diligence than just looking at buy/sell prices as sufficient due diligence to support what wase stated. He may be one of those that just wanted to sell and get out as he seems to be saying. At the same time, if a house sold in Hinsdale for $1.37 million, even at the peak of the bubble, it shouldn't sell for $314k in 2018 simply due to a dropping market.

Not much time to look at all those, but this one stood out.
Looking at Google maps, for starters, there's a basketball half court in the yard. I would imagine there had to be some other major physical issues with that house if that truly was the 2018 sale price.

LOL. Yea, he's definitely got some errors in the numbers he cited as indicated in my above post. For someone to think a 5,000+ sq ft Hinsdale house with 5 beds and 3.5 baths that once sold for $1.37M now sold for $314k is, well, downright hilarious..

[damba]

Originally Posted by My Kind Of Town

Wase stated he bought in 2005 and sold in 2018. He also definitively stated he bought at $500k and sold at $340k. Here's the series of posts for reference:

No fuzzy math there. Very definitive. I am the one who came up with the percentage point loss based on the information provided ($160k loss on $500k purchase = 32% and yes that math is correct).

Living in Hinsdale, I follow the local market very closely. No way someone took a 32% loss when buying in 2005 and selling in 2018. This would be the most extreme of extreme outliers (I won't say impossible because anything is possible I guess!) but I challenge you to find an example of a home purchased in Hinsdale around 2005 that has sold since 2017 for a 25%+ loss (let alone 32%).

The Hinsdale market absolutely took a huge hit from 2007 to 2011 (much like the rest of the country) but has rebounded nicely and nearly regained pre-recession prices at this point. It's up something like 35% since bottoming in 2011.

I'm definitely not questioning your specifics here- they are very sound. I am certainly familiar with losing money on a property in suburban Chicago. Nothing like what some other people experienced though.

[Justabystander]

Originally Posted by Bitey

Let's see what a few minutes worth of due diligence turns up...

• 749 E 7th St S: Sold in 2006 for 785K; sold again in 2018 for 650K.
  
• 404 58th Pl # B2E: Sold in 2003 for 768K; sold again in 2008 for 248K; sold again in 2018 for 220K.
  
• 5703 Foxgate Lane: Sold in 2001 for 700K; sold again in 2018 for 488K.
  
• 525 Morris Lane: Sold in 2006 for 1.37M; sold again in 2018 for 314K.
  
• 225 Indian Trail Road, Unit 6C: Sold in 2006 for 740K; sold again in 2018 for 530K.
  
• 551 Phillippa St: Sold in 2005 for 500K; sold again in 2018 for 355K.

... so yeah, wase4711's scenario doesn't sound too far-fetched to me.

Where did you find these numbers? Just a check on the 525 Morris property shows only these three sales:

9/26/2006- $1,336,500
5/16/2005- $1,200,000
9/12/2000-$815,000

Where are you getting $314,000?

5703 Foxgate a 1750 square foot condo

Sold 4/6/2001 $350,000
Sold 487,000 4/28/2018

Where did you get $700,000? This is crazy.

[My Kind Of Town]

Originally Posted by damba

I'm definitely not questioning your specifics here- they are very sound. I am certainly familiar with losing money on a property in suburban Chicago. Nothing like what some other people experienced though.

Don't worry, C/D cracked this case. We found out where Wase lived. We just need to pretend that the 2013 and 2014 sales at 551 Phillippa never occurred.

In all seriousness, the $355k sale in 2018 compared to the $500k sale in 2005 is an outlier in this area (a would be 29% drop if the two sales in between in 2013 and 2014 are ignored). Also guessing there's something else going on with that property since it's been a rental several years recently and sold 3 times over the past 5 years. Potentially deferred maintenance and other issues that often accompany a rental property is my guess. Again, an outlier and not representative of the local market, which was the picture portrayed earlier in this thread...