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All millenials don't behave the same way it's such a huge group some millennials have kids and others don't .
Millennials moved to LA because it was cheap ? When ? Rents were still going up during the recession and prices to buy weren't that cheap either but they were cheaper than now .
LA will become cheaper as it gets more dense? New York had gotten more expensive as it's gotten more dense why would LA be cheaper ?
What will change about la that it won't be attractive to people as it is today ?
I really don't know why this is such a shock to you, when well off people who live in cities have children they usually will move to a safer area with batter schools and more living space, this has been going on since the 40s, they people who remain are the ones who can't afford to leave
LA will become cheaper as it becomes more dense because of supply and demand, rent is actually dropping price wise nationally (even in NYC and SF) because of all the new construction in cities, LA is currently bucking the trend but it eventually will join all the other cities
New York is not LA, LA city itself is the size of 22 Manhattans, New York just doesn't have room for all these people, Most of LA is 1-3 stories, it has plenty of room to grow and sustain a larger population
LA has always been attractive to people, even at it's worse moments, plenty of cities are attractive to people, doesn't mean that poverty or crime won't increase
Sorry to all the LA backers but LA in the 2040s will either be a little bit better or a little bit worse, or a lot worse, but if you're thinking LA will be Stockholm or Copenhagen, Its not gonna happen
I really don't know why this is such a shock to you, when well off people who live in cities have children they usually will move to a safer area with batter schools and more living space, this has been going on since the 40s, they people who remain are the ones who can't afford to leave
LA will become cheaper as it becomes more dense because of supply and demand, rent is actually dropping price wise nationally (even in NYC and SF) because of all the new construction in cities, LA is currently bucking the trend but it eventually will join all the other cities
New York is not LA, LA city itself is the size of 22 Manhattans, New York just doesn't have room for all these people, Most of LA is 1-3 stories, it has plenty of room to grow and sustain a larger population
LA has always been attractive to people, even at it's worse moments, plenty of cities are attractive to people, doesn't mean that poverty or crime won't increase
Sorry to all the LA backers but LA in the 2040s will either be a little bit better or a little bit worse, or a lot worse, but if you're thinking LA will be Stockholm or Copenhagen, Its not gonna happen
Actually I think it's more the opposite. They can't afford to live in L.A at least in a decent place so they look to move elsewhere.
The safest parts of L.A of course are expensive . Places like Brentwood, Palisades , nicer parts of the Valley.
There was the trend of people moving out of cities but now people have been moving back .
Downtown L.A is one example, but there are many other cities where their downtowns have been revitilized and there is new development.
These are places people want to live in rather than decaying city cores.
This is why the term "inner city" these days is an outdated one pretty much.
All real estate is local. Some urban cores people want to escape from and others people flock to.
It's possible that L.A could decline, weather is a big thing that keeps it popular of course and the variety of industries.
I'm sure this could change though .
You said you expect L.A to become cheaper, but what does that mean ?
I don't see L.A becoming affordable like San Antonio or Orlando might be today.
We will see if the city allows developers to go hog wild and overbuild. Right now it doesn't seem like that is happening and demand is still higher than supply.
All the people talking about gentrification being unstoppable and happening in the 2030s and 2040s remind me of the people staying no one will ever move back to the cities and they will just stay crime infested hell holes back in the 80s
This gentrification thing is a bubble that only happened because of the recession
Of course cities were becoming better since the 90s but we hadn't seen such widespread gentrification, only in New York and SF
The largest group of millenials, those born in 1990, just turned 26 this year they will move to the suburbs they grew up in once they have children, no one with means is gonna be raising their kids in a "Up and Coming" neighborhood
Once the hipster yuppie millenial crowd leaves for the suburbs, along with all this new housing stock the city has, I expect it to become cheap once again
Cities are a cycle
Gentrification started happening in the late '90s in Venice and Silver Lake. You could trace it back to the 1980s in places like Santa Monica and West Hollywood, although since those were/are overwhelmingly white you might not count those.
By L.A. becoming cheap again, I could only see that happening if there are serious issues with water supply. I thought that the drought would already have led to a collapse in real estate prices by now, but since there are no issues with water supply that has not happened (yet). Now, if there is more building, L.A. would become cheaper, but that's not the same as cheap.
Actually I think it's more the opposite. They can't afford to live in L.A at least in a decent place so they look to move elsewhere.
The safest parts of L.A of course are expensive . Places like Brentwood, Palisades , nicer parts of the Valley.
There was the trend of people moving out of cities but now people have been moving back .
Downtown L.A is one example, but there are many other cities where their downtowns have been revitilized and there is new development.
These are places people want to live in rather than decaying city cores.
This is why the term "inner city" these days is an outdated one pretty much.
All real estate is local. Some urban cores people want to escape from and others people flock to.
It's possible that L.A could decline, weather is a big thing that keeps it popular of course and the variety of industries.
I'm sure this could change though .
You said you expect L.A to become cheaper, but what does that mean ?
I don't see L.A becoming affordable like San Antonio or Orlando might be today.
We will see if the city allows developers to go hog wild and overbuild. Right now it doesn't seem like that is happening and demand is still higher than supply.
Yes, people move to the suburbs because the suburbs are cheaper.
The term "inner city" was invented to describe Chicago (not surprising as urban studies in America began in Chicago). It never really fit L.A. Beverly Hills is closer to downtown than Florence and Normandie is (and Hancock Park and Los Feliz are closer still)
I really don't know why this is such a shock to you, when well off people who live in cities have children they usually will move to a safer area with batter schools and more living space, this has been going on since the 40s, they people who remain are the ones who can't afford to leave
LA will become cheaper as it becomes more dense because of supply and demand, rent is actually dropping price wise nationally (even in NYC and SF) because of all the new construction in cities, LA is currently bucking the trend but it eventually will join all the other cities
New York is not LA, LA city itself is the size of 22 Manhattans, New York just doesn't have room for all these people, Most of LA is 1-3 stories, it has plenty of room to grow and sustain a larger population
LA has always been attractive to people, even at it's worse moments, plenty of cities are attractive to people, doesn't mean that poverty or crime won't increase
Sorry to all the LA backers but LA in the 2040s will either be a little bit better or a little bit worse, or a lot worse, but if you're thinking LA will be Stockholm or Copenhagen, Its not gonna happen
NYC rents definitely do not seem to be going down. Maybe on the luxury end, but probably not on the lower and middle level of the spectrum.
I agree with you. Unfortunately, TJs bases their store locations on the percentage of residents with at least bachelors' degrees. This is one huge reason they still haven't put a store in my hometown back east (too blue collar).
If this is true, why are there only 2 TJ's in Massachusetts.
Westlake is going to gentrify greatly this decade. A lot of new development near the Koreatown border into Westlake like many blocks east of Vermont plus many new developments several blocks west of 110 downtown. Some developments near echo park into historic Filipinos own. 3 sides sqeezing Westlake. The south not so much. Even Westlake has projects on its own.
Currently there is a lot of poverty, crime, and homeless in Central Westlake around the park.
Yes those are important issues but gentrification tends reduce the first two with higher rents more police force. With reductions in immigration and high cost of living, Westlake will likely reduce population naturally. Highland Park used to have high immigration populations but that went down to cost living gentrification from more wealthy newcomers. The homeless is more problematic, but with billions of money focused on housing sheltering homeless throughout la city county metro area, there will be less concentration and tents. By 2028 Olympics I see 90% reduction in visible homeless in Central LA with most in shelters
I think the park and dirty lake will get renovated making it like Echo Park was before the pandemic with locals, swan boats families, etc.
Westlake is going to gentrify greatly this decade. A lot of new development near the Koreatown border into Westlake like many blocks east of Vermont plus many new developments several blocks west of 110 downtown. Some developments near echo park into historic Filipinos own. 3 sides sqeezing Westlake. The south not so much. Even Westlake has projects on its own.
Currently there is a lot of poverty, crime, and homeless in Central Westlake around the park.
Yes those are important issues but gentrification tends reduce the first two with higher rents more police force. With reductions in immigration and high cost of living, Westlake will likely reduce population naturally. Highland Park used to have high immigration populations but that went down to cost living gentrification from more wealthy newcomers. The homeless is more problematic, but with billions of money focused on housing sheltering homeless throughout la city county metro area, there will be less concentration and tents. By 2028 Olympics I see 90% reduction in visible homeless in Central LA with most in shelters
I think the park and dirty lake will get renovated making it like Echo Park was before the pandemic with locals, swan boats families, etc.
Have you seen Echo Park recently?
It is beyond disgusting, tent after tent. The park is destroyed, families can't go there.
Where do you think these people are going to the bathroom?
Do you think we can keep printing money?
By 2028, that is 7 years away. That is a LONG HAUL.
Let's get real. Positive thinking is great, but you can't eliminate reality. Years and years now of ignoring the problem, well the chickens have home to roost.
I have lived in LA now most of my life, I feel like I am watching a beloved family member die a slow lingering death. Having had that experience, of course that is much worse. But it does feel almost as bad.
I have defended LA for years and years to those who put our city down, but things are quite dire. Crime is out of control. I said as did others that releasing 300 prisoners a week out of the LA County jails due to "Covid" would be a mistake, well guess where they are now...out on the streets...
1.)
Gentrification has become a loaded term in modern-day America. I'm just going to assume you're referring to the quality of life improvements (less crime, less filth, better amenities) and not to the forced exodus of working-class/lower middle-class residents.
2.)
Instead of asking "which areas are next?" the better question to ask is "which areas were previously on track but stalled/regressed in during COVID, and therefore need to re-start their evolutions?" This pandemic, the subsequent lockdowns, and the riots in May/June 2020 all compounded to slow down quality of life improvements in many of those areas. It's not permanent, just temporary.
3.)
Of your list, I would say the following:
Santa Monica Blvd in West LA still has lingering issues with trash, and the occasional homeless tent here and there (no major encampments at the time of writing this). But as more businesses reopen from their COVID shutdowns, it will likely come roaring back to life in late 2021 early 2022.
Ditto for Pico between Robertson and La Brea.
East Hollywood is tricky. That area still feels very blighted. As the neighboring areas of Los Feliz and Central Hollywood get their act together, I think the result is that East Hollywood will end up absorbing some of the pushed-out crime and grime. It's a shame because I love many of the mom N pop restaurants in Thai Town and Little Armenia. I just don't see a clear path in the near-term for quality of life improvements in East Hollywood.
City West Downtown: sorry I don't see that happening. Not unless there's a massive push to improve Westlake. Too many severe problems in Westlake for City West Downtown to see any real changes.
Venice and Lincoln Blvds: I've decided to stop making any predictions about Venice. I don't understand it. Along with DTLA, it's the most Jekly & Hyde neighborhood in Los Angeles.
No idea about downtown Van Nuys. Never been there.
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