What's Parts of LA will be gentrified in the next decade? (Los Angeles: condominiums, loan)

[Texamichiforniasota]

Originally Posted by Grune D

You don’t sound very smart on the gentrification piece.

Why is that? I stated my opinion that the city has taken a big turn in the wrong direction that will negatively affect gentrification, and I think it will take a long time to recover. I say this as someone who has owned a home in a nice part of LA for a long time, and despite the probelms don't have plans to move.

For the most part, these are longer term trends, some of which COVID accelerated:

1. Increase in vagrancy/crime- Part of this is pandemic related, but criminal "justice" reform was stalling out the past progress against crime that made gentrification possible. With the current DA, crime will almost certainly continue to move in the wrong direction.

2. LAUSD- Despite getting a bad wrap, I've always stood up for LAUSD. My own kids go to LAUSD schools. Many of the families with the highest performing students have pulled their kids and put them in private schools or moved to another district due to the district's heel dragging in response to the pandemic. Most of those kids won't be coming back. My kid's class is down to about 10 students. It's going to drop district test scores and lead to closing of schools.

3. Work from home- I actually expect this will have less impact on LA than some other cities, but there will still be some inpact.

4. Retail/Dining Closures- A big part of what makes LA neighborhoods attractive is the access to unique retail/dining. So much has permanently closed d/t the pandemic, and there is so much deteriorating, vacant commercial that this may a drag for a while. I expect there will be some recovery, but I don't see it reaching pre-pandemic levels.

So, basically, you have a more dangerous city, with worsening schools, that maybe 5-10% of the population no longer needs to live in due to work from home, that no longer has as many amenities as it use to. I think it will take at least 5-10 years to turn these long term trends around to the point where gentrification picks up again significantly.

[Grune D]

You don’t understand where you live.
Yeah, there have been some issues with business closures, everyone has been affected one way or another by the pandemic. Ultimately though, if you look around there’s plenty of construction, housing values are through the roof. Most middle income and low income families will be pushed to undesirable areas or force to move. The olympics will bring more wealth later in the decade. The LAUSD suffers in most areas because of the larger population latino kids who have parents that don’t speak the language and can’t help their kids with school work or have the means to pay a tutor. Higher income families are not going to send their kids to low scoring schools regardless of where they live. For every restaurant closing there will be five new with pending applications to open.

Originally Posted by Texamichiforniasota

Why is that? I stated my opinion that the city has taken a big turn in the wrong direction that will negatively affect gentrification, and I think it will take a long time to recover. I say this as someone who has owned a home in a nice part of LA for a long time, and despite the probelms don't have plans to move.

For the most part, these are longer term trends, some of which COVID accelerated:

1. Increase in vagrancy/crime- Part of this is pandemic related, but criminal "justice" reform was stalling out the past progress against crime that made gentrification possible. With the current DA, crime will almost certainly continue to move in the wrong direction.

2. LAUSD- Despite getting a bad wrap, I've always stood up for LAUSD. My own kids go to LAUSD schools. Many of the families with the highest performing students have pulled their kids and put them in private schools or moved to another district due to the district's heel dragging in response to the pandemic. Most of those kids won't be coming back. My kid's class is down to about 10 students. It's going to drop district test scores and lead to closing of schools.

3. Work from home- I actually expect this will have less impact on LA than some other cities, but there will still be some inpact.

4. Retail/Dining Closures- A big part of what makes LA neighborhoods attractive is the access to unique retail/dining. So much has permanently closed d/t the pandemic, and there is so much deteriorating, vacant commercial that this may a drag for a while. I expect there will be some recovery, but I don't see it reaching pre-pandemic levels.

So, basically, you have a more dangerous city, with worsening schools, that maybe 5-10% of the population no longer needs to live in due to work from home, that no longer has as many amenities as it use to. I think it will take at least 5-10 years to turn these long term trends around to the point where gentrification picks up again significantly.

[range extender]

Los Angeles is no different than the other largest cities..one has to look into the general trends in all the cities not just La. You would need a whole decade of insane rising crime rates like the 1970s to create a extreme "white flight" to less urban areas and those times were a bit different to the situation today. I also believe there's no way to move the majority of poor out the cities, that doesn't even make sense numerically. Point is...the cities will likely be the same like what you saw the decade before covid. There's always big city criminals out and about that's the trade away living in the city, remember that. Now a reminder this is the beginning of 2021 so we can't accuaratly foreshadow but based off what I see..it looks the same

[popka]

The tent city in Echo Park has been primed for gentrification for a while now. I guess they're just planning everything out real good before they start the gentrifying process. Don't worry guys

[Grune D]

Not to mention the insane amounts houses are selling for....

[Angelino19]

1. Downtown - West of the Harbor Frwy
2. Boyle Heights
3. Lincoln Heights
4. East Hollywood

[Dave Coe]

Last time I drove around Hollywood I noticed a hybrid of gentrification and blight(Lots of new construction next to homeless encampments).

I initially thought the post pandemic trends would decimate gentrification but even with the massive increase in homeless LA is still has countless new luxury developments under construction and proposed.

Just check out the site https://urbanize.city/la/.

[saybanana]

I predict in next 10 years, gentrification will happen in Baldwin Hills, Crenshaw, Leimert Park, West Adams area.
There has been a lot of new construction along the Expo line, plus the already high wealth areas up the hills. Crenshaw. The home prices in the flats are up there, but are old timeless homes that would appeal to many homebuyers.
Crenshaw Blvd has a lot of potential especially between expo Crenshaw station to south of leimert Park. While it is known as a black majority community, it is slowly shrinking. There are 2 proposals on metro land next to the terminus station for mid rise apartments and some huge empty lot across the street. The dying mall can be turned into offices,, retail hybrid. Also weren't towers proposed, too on parking lots?

I think as LA gentrification grows citywide, the more desirable it will be for middle class people and up. It attracts lots of singles, couples with no kids, but when families start moving in, it will be huge.

[Dave Coe]

Also the southern portion of Mid-City, from Pico to the 10 and from La Cienega to Crenshaw.

[UrbanQuest]

We need a system to start utilizing these homeless people for productive roles. I mean a Marshall plan like effort.

Leaving them on the streets to fester and draw ire is reckless policy. For what? Freedom to suffer in ignorance in the name of dignity(false)?

Building up and dense would help without crazy zoning red tape and controlled construction costs. Our whole economy is based on smartphones and real estate. With real estate being a commodity to exploit and price manipulate.