Economic pain train's a coming (Boston, Cambridge: home sales, tech job, living in)

[OutdoorLover]

"2.4 million Americans filed jobless claims last week, bringing nine-week total to 38.6 million" - we're probably at 16% unemployment right now, and still digging the hole deeper. I won't be surprised to see us hit 20% unemployment at this rate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...s-coronavirus/

[mdovell]

Originally Posted by Bridge781

I wouldn’t want these people as my neighbors especially if I’d paid 650k for a 1 or 2 bedroom condo. Apparently some people don’t mind if a shooting happens down the street from them. I’m not those people but I also have kids.

Right but here's the thing criminals don't really care where you live. Long ago when I was living in the south shore some ass hired a hitman to come up from Bridgeport and kill his ex. He drove around and looked a bit odd. Popped some shots off but they all missed, he was caught. Back in the day when people didn't know what roads to take, when communications were more expensive it was a bit harder. Now with access to fire arms, smart phones and cars (think ubur/lyft) it isn't that hard for criminals to move.

I'm not saying that anyone wants them as neighbors. Of course I don't want violence. But you do have to understand that with gas at less than $2 a gallon, a high unemployment rate and dirt cheap communications, places of the economy still under lockdown of course we're going to see an increase in crime in suburban areas. We might not see it reported but that's largely due to the fact that local media declined. In many cases they rather take advertising and not report bad things. I recall long ago some elderly coworkers of mine knew a person that died from a heroin overdose. The paper said it was "natural causes" as to not embarrass the family and lower property values. A neighbor of my folks was an ass and beat his wife. He went to prison and she didn't know what to do for work. She rented out each floor to a different tenant. One of which decided to do car work and it backed up lighting the house on fire. Years and years later five figures, maybe six figures of work had to be done. Now there might be a new family there. Then there also was the water plant worker that hired a prostitute and killed her by connecting her chest to a car battery. Then there was the elderly couple that was shot by their housekeeper (early 90's) and one of the local cops told my high school class he didn't think she did it!. Yet the housing prices kept going up. There is crime in the suburbs if you pull the full police report which is more than just the arrest report. Then also realize that not everyone does things at home so you have to cross reference names of outlying areas. I'll pm the links for these if asked.

Of course the other debate with schools being closed is we haven't had a school shooting since. The vast majority of which are in predominantly white suburban areas. I've looked at the stats going back 22 or so years.


"Maybe violent crime, but burglary, car break ins, stuff like that happens pretty indiscriminately."

That's still pretty low these days. As a state and as a country violent crime is still down. Now sexual assaults on colleges that's remained level.

Car breakins are pretty rare these days as frankly car audio isn't as big as it was before smart phones. Burglary again targets those with drugs or close to those that use or sell them. There's plenty of open parking lots near me and frankly there isn't much for thefts. High camera use, lack of anything resellable inside etc. Pawn shops are heavily regulated here and can be audited by the police at any time so the market is lower. Legit resellers online can meet in the front of the police station.

Violent crime as I said is down. Non violent though....investment fraud, pension fraud, hackers etc. I'm not concerned with violence but I'd never use an open air ATM that faces the street, regardless of location.

[trevor0101]

I think the housing market is weird right now. There are a ton of folks that have excellent job security in Boston, and decent savings, and decent equity. Those people are competing for desirable properties, of which there are fewer due to the pandemic. The economics are simple, and there is a pretty large part of Boston's population that is less financially affected by the pandemic than most.

[bugelrex]

Originally Posted by trevor0101

I think the housing market is weird right now. There are a ton of folks that have excellent job security in Boston, and decent savings, and decent equity. Those people are competing for desirable properties, of which there are fewer due to the pandemic. The economics are simple, and there is a pretty large part of Boston's population that is less financially affected by the pandemic than most.

Facebook just announced its changing its model to remote workers. They expect 50% remote in the next 5 to 10 years. I think most of them will still want to live near (but not in) a major city .. i see a trend toward suburbs again

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by bugelrex

Facebook just announced its changing its model to remote workers. They expect 50% remote in the next 5 to 10 years. I think most of them will still want to live near (but not in) a major city .. i see a trend toward suburbs again

More like a trend toward (insert cheap country here).

[bugelrex]

Originally Posted by yesmaybe

More like a trend toward (insert cheap country here).

Lol.. definitely true. This definitely gives them cover to do so

[trevor0101]

Something to keep in mind is that Facebook, and other similar companies may permit increasing amounts of WFH for a period of time. However, if employees wish to leave their general areas it results in a significant pay reduction. So, while it sounds like a good idea to leave SFBay, and be a rich guy in your hometown of Ann Arbor, that's just not going to happen. That $250k they are paying you in SFBay is probably only going to be $155k in Ann Arbor, and even less if you want to go to a place like Canada. That doesn't take into account the likely severe career cost of no longer rubbing elbows with the higher ups, getting invited to important onsite meetings, and the potential lost promotions.

There is undoubtedly a sheen on the suburbs now, in-so-far as you can probably keep your metro rate of pay, and get a nicer house where you're not on top of each other, and maybe even have the ability to grill out on a deck. Being a suburbanite has a weird reputation to many folks inside of the 128, but I can tell you that things aren't so bad in the "gold plated" suburbs of Boston.

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by trevor0101

Something to keep in mind is that Facebook, and other similar companies may permit increasing amounts of WFH for a period of time. However, if employees wish to leave their general areas it results in a significant pay reduction.

Facebook is cutting pay but it's unclear how much. A company doesn't have to cut pay for an existing hire if they moved away.

Now New Remote workers do make less in general and you won't get any kind of COL adjustment. If WFH became that popular you would see an amount of wage deflation for people in HCOL even if the work stays in the US since to stay competitive people in HCOL will have to adjust their expectations.

Here, I've found that companies downtown don't pay any more than ones in the burbs... and might even pay less.

[bjimmy24]

Originally Posted by bugelrex

Facebook just announced its changing its model to remote workers. They expect 50% remote in the next 5 to 10 years. I think most of them will still want to live near (but not in) a major city .. i see a trend toward suburbs again

Tech workers have long been kinda suburban types.

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by bjimmy24

Tech workers have long been kinda suburban types.

Just the opposite, especially here. It's just that where the Big Tech Companies are in the Bay Area is suburban.