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Old 01-27-2016, 10:47 AM
 
11,289 posts, read 26,213,079 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joeyg2014 View Post
Boston MSA wasn't listed for 2014 but in 2013 it was 1.8
Oh, I'm surprised I didn't notice that as I always knew Boston was right at the top for safest.

 
Old 01-27-2016, 10:47 AM
 
832 posts, read 1,255,926 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joeyg2014 View Post
Alaska and Arizona are generally considered best but a lot of states are catching up. You can carry concealed at colleges in Utah. Vermont's good too.

I live in Maine and as of a law passed in October we don't even need a permit to carry concealed anymore:

Concealed Carry In Maine No Longer Requires A Permit
"A law effective Thursday allows people in the state of Maine to carry concealed handguns without a permit. The new statute, which applies to both residents and non-residents ages 21 and over, means that anyone not otherwise banned from carrying a firearm can carry a concealed handgun within state borders. Keeping a loaded pistol or revolver inside a motor vehicle is allowed as well. Adults ages 18-20 who are on active military duty, or who have been honorably discharged from the military, are also included."
I think you guys are kind of paranoid about guns...
 
Old 01-27-2016, 10:50 AM
 
11,289 posts, read 26,213,079 times
Reputation: 11355
Quote:
Originally Posted by jayo2k View Post
I think you guys are kind of paranoid about guns...
Why on earth would you go out of your way to pass a law that says you don't need permits any longer to carry a gun?? That just sounds counter-intuitive unless you're fine with every psycho out there packing heat.

I was just reading yesterday some drunk guy dropped his loaded gun in a movie theatre last week and it went off hitting a woman and putting her in the hospital in critical condition.
 
Old 01-27-2016, 11:50 AM
 
Location: Maine
1,285 posts, read 1,396,454 times
Reputation: 1008
Quote:
Originally Posted by jayo2k View Post
I think you guys are kind of paranoid about guns...
If I'm in Miami I never worry because I can have a gun in my waistband there. Even in sketchy areas I'm never real worried. The only time they'd get me is if they just started randomly shooting. But most scenarios aren't like that. In most situations I'd have plenty of time to shoot back.

The robbery rate in Miami is over 500/100k in one year. If I'm not mistaken this basically means 1 out of every 20 Miamians is robbed over 10 years.

Between rape, robbery and aggravated assault in Miami the rate is well over 1,500/100k. Over 10 years 1 in every 6 Miamians has been raped, robbed or assaulted.

And we know for a fact that rapes and assaults are under reported. Robberies to a lesser extent. So the stats are definitely going to be higher than 1,500/100k.

So yeah, odds are you won't need the gun. But I don't think the odds are as slim as people think.
 
Old 01-27-2016, 12:02 PM
 
1,039 posts, read 1,102,743 times
Reputation: 1517
Quote:
Originally Posted by joeyg2014 View Post
If I'm in Miami I never worry because I can have a gun in my waistband there. Even in sketchy areas I'm never real worried. The only time they'd get me is if they just started randomly shooting. But most scenarios aren't like that. In most situations I'd have plenty of time to shoot back.

The robbery rate in Miami is over 500/100k in one year. If I'm not mistaken this basically means 1 out of every 20 Miamians is robbed over 10 years.

Between rape, robbery and aggravated assault in Miami the rate is well over 1,500/100k. Over 10 years 1 in every 6 Miamians has been raped, robbed or assaulted.

And we know for a fact that rapes and assaults are under reported. Robberies to a lesser extent. So the stats are definitely going to be higher than 1,500/100k.

So yeah, odds are you won't need the gun. But I don't think the odds are as slim as people think.
That math is not adding up to me...that robbery rate is 1 in 200 every year...not sure how you get 1 in 20 over 10 years...well, I know how you get it but I don't agree with the math...if the rate remains steady over 10 years, it will be 1 in 200 over 10 years
 
Old 01-27-2016, 12:20 PM
 
Location: Maine
1,285 posts, read 1,396,454 times
Reputation: 1008
Quote:
Originally Posted by whogoesthere View Post
That math is not adding up to me...that robbery rate is 1 in 200 every year...not sure how you get 1 in 20 over 10 years...well, I know how you get it but I don't agree with the math...if the rate remains steady over 10 years, it will be 1 in 200 over 10 years
I thought about that too, but I think (but not sure) it would only remain the same if the population changed every year. I think most Miami residents in the areas where most of these crimes happen have been living there for a long time.

For example if 200 robberies happen over 10 years in a small neighborhood of 3k where most people have lived for 10 years, then I think that would mean 1 in 15 of them were robbed over that 10 years.

Last edited by joeyg2014; 01-27-2016 at 12:35 PM..
 
Old 01-27-2016, 12:54 PM
 
11,289 posts, read 26,213,079 times
Reputation: 11355
Quote:
Originally Posted by whogoesthere View Post
That math is not adding up to me...that robbery rate is 1 in 200 every year...not sure how you get 1 in 20 over 10 years...well, I know how you get it but I don't agree with the math...if the rate remains steady over 10 years, it will be 1 in 200 over 10 years
Doing the math if you had a 0.5% chance of being robbed each year (1 in 200) over 10 years then the chances overall of being robbed are 10*.005*.995^9 = 4.8% for a constant population in that area. It's 1 in 200 every year. Just cause you didn't get robbed one year doesn't mean the chances are again 1 in 200 the next year.

The chances of being robbed in Miami once in every 25 years would be 11.1% and the chances of being robbed over an 80 year lifespan would be 26.8%.

of course it depends on what neighborhood you're in....
 
Old 01-27-2016, 01:00 PM
 
11,289 posts, read 26,213,079 times
Reputation: 11355
Quote:
Originally Posted by joeyg2014 View Post
I thought about that too, but I think (but not sure) it would only remain the same if the population changed every year. I think most Miami residents in the areas where most of these crimes happen have been living there for a long time.

For example if 200 robberies happen over 10 years in a small neighborhood of 3k where most people have lived for 10 years, then I think that would mean 1 in 15 of them were robbed over that 10 years.
20 robberies a year for a population of 3,500 spread out over 10 years means your chances are: 10*.0057 (rate per year) * .9943^9 = Your personal chances of being robbed over a 10 year period is 5.4% over 10 years, or 0.43% in any given year.

So you have a 1 in 18 chance of being robbed in that neighborhood if you live there for a decade.
 
Old 01-28-2016, 12:38 AM
 
123 posts, read 291,837 times
Reputation: 85
Philly: 17
 
Old 01-28-2016, 06:47 AM
 
593 posts, read 668,613 times
Reputation: 1511
Jacksonville - 12 nowas of the 28th of January. 3 yesterday in one neighborhood didn't help.
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