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Old 02-25-2013, 03:21 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by semiurbanite View Post
This paints a different picture:
The Next Real Estate Boom | Brookings Institution

"Not surprisingly, fully 77 percent of millennials plan to live in America’s urban cores."
Twenty somethings have long been attracted to the energy and social opportunities in urban cores. However, then they get married, have children and history repeats.

American cities fighting to keep Millennials from moving to suburbs.
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Old 02-25-2013, 08:25 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by semiurbanite View Post
This paints a different picture:
The Next Real Estate Boom | Brookings Institution

"Not surprisingly, fully 77 percent of millennials plan to live in America’s urban cores."
Even if that is true (not judging that point at the moment), 2030 (ie, when the Boomers start to die) is post-Millennial; the Millennial generation will already have become rooted, though I make no point about where. What will be really interesting is how the generation after Millennials react to falling detached, suburban SFH prices. This is especially worthwhile to consider if Millennials have made urban residences scarce and, therefore, expensive.
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Old 02-25-2013, 08:45 PM
 
Location: Denver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve View Post
Twenty somethings have long been attracted to the energy and social opportunities in urban cores. However, then they get married, have children and history repeats.

American cities fighting to keep Millennials from moving to suburbs.
Not necessarily. Baton Rouge's urban neighborhoods are receiving more investment since the 40s. While the suburbs are still exploding, it won't be long before the trend will shift or level out. I will never live in the suburbs by choice.
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Old 02-25-2013, 08:47 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkeconomist View Post
Even if that is true (not judging that point at the moment), 2030 (ie, when the Boomers start to die) is post-Millennial; the Millennial generation will already have become rooted, though I make no point about where. What will be really interesting is how the generation after Millennials react to falling detached, suburban SFH prices. This is especially worthwhile to consider if Millennials have made urban residences scarce and, therefore, expensive.
The generation after the Millennials is small, though, the Echo Bust if you will. If the Millennials remain in the cities and the Echo Busters prefer the suburbs, the cities are fine. However, if the Millennials start moving to the suburbs in large numbers and the Echo Busters are all that replaces them, that's bad for the cities.
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Old 02-25-2013, 08:48 PM
 
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Originally Posted by annie_himself View Post
I will never live in the suburbs by choice.
That's what people say, right up to the day they pull their minivan into the garage of their Cape Cod :-)
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Old 02-25-2013, 11:08 PM
 
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Originally Posted by nybbler View Post
The generation after the Millennials is small, though, the Echo Bust if you will. If the Millennials remain in the cities and the Echo Busters prefer the suburbs, the cities are fine. However, if the Millennials start moving to the suburbs in large numbers and the Echo Busters are all that replaces them, that's bad for the cities.
If that's the case, someone is going to have to buy all those newly empty homes. The underlying point is the excess capacity is going to be a drag on the urban boom.
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Old 02-25-2013, 11:08 PM
 
Location: Ypsilanti
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Originally Posted by nybbler View Post
That's what people say, right up to the day they pull their minivan into the garage of their Cape Cod :-)
Not everyone, my parents never lived in the city, and I have one aunt on my dad's side that lives in Detroit, her other 9 siblings never lived in the city. My mom got married at 18, her whole family never lived in the city and that includes her 10 siblings and her parents. The funny thing, you'd think they would know so much about city living since all the tell me is how dangerous it is.

I only bring it up because I told them I'm moving to a city, and all I hear are negatives, it gets tiring.
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Old 02-25-2013, 11:16 PM
 
Location: Ypsilanti
389 posts, read 400,453 times
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Originally Posted by darkeconomist View Post
If that's the case, someone is going to have to buy all those newly empty homes. The underlying point is the excess capacity is going to be a drag on the urban boom.
I think people would put more choice into living in an area besides the fact that there are a ton of empty homes. I get you are saying the housing will be cheap, but there are quality vacant homes in Detroit that are abandoned and very cheap. Not too many people are buying because obvious other factors come into play.

Also near my subdivision there is a subdivision with over half the houses vacant, brand new for like five years, only a few people have moved in over the years and it right across from the local highschool. That is like 20 empty nice houses.
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Old 02-26-2013, 03:33 AM
 
Location: Nescopeck, Penna. (birthplace)
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The dreamers peopose and the free exchange of human intreraction disposes; It really ought to be just that simple.
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Old 02-26-2013, 09:47 AM
 
5,076 posts, read 8,505,850 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkeconomist View Post
Even if that is true (not judging that point at the moment), 2030 (ie, when the Boomers start to die) is post-Millennial; the Millennial generation will already have become rooted, though I make no point about where. What will be really interesting is how the generation after Millennials react to falling detached, suburban SFH prices. This is especially worthwhile to consider if Millennials have made urban residences scarce and, therefore, expensive.
My thought is these suburban areas will increasingly be considered an 'inferior good' only for those that are not financially savvy enough have secured a more urban home. Personally I've seen many people justify their suburban fringe housing purchases on flawed reasoning - namely that owning a home, regardless of the location is a key to financial stability.

I expect we'll see this around edge cities and increasingly dense, previously suburban population centers too - not just around old urban cores. In some cases the old suburban cores have an advantage because they have more control over zoning,, even if they do struggle to convert from car-centricity.
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