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View Poll Results: When will London reach 20c?
Before 1 Mar 1 2.44%
1-15 Mar 0 0%
16-31 Mar 1 2.44%
1-15 Apr 10 24.39%
16-30 Apr 5 12.20%
1-15 May 9 21.95%
16 May or later 15 36.59%
Voters: 41. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-29-2016, 08:30 AM
 
Location: Leeds, UK
22,112 posts, read 29,597,650 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariete View Post
The current record high here is 13.7C. I thought it was incredible when April 2015's record high was 14.0C. Will probably hit 16C tomorrow, and not a day too early, lol. The biggest mindf**k is that Lapland might record Finland's highest temp for the month.

I have to give it to those cold epoch guys on twitter that chicagogeorge has posted. It played out as awful as the models initially showed.
Yes, after the mystical cold spells in February that remained exactly that.
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Old 04-29-2016, 08:33 AM
B87 B87 started this thread
 
Location: Surrey/London
11,769 posts, read 10,604,174 times
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Summer 2016 update 4

Latest summer forecast. Dominated by high pressure, with average to warm temps. Will probably be better than recent years, which is welcome after having an entire decade of cooler, wetter and cloudier than average summers.
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Old 04-29-2016, 08:34 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by B87 View Post
2013: June below, July above, August above. (Above overall)
2014: June above, July above, August below. (Above overall)
2015: June above, July average, August below. (Avg overall)

We still need another 3-4 years of above average summers to make up for 2007-2012.

I have reason to suspect that we are in a 1983 pattern with a quickly dying El Nino and what could be a quick transition to La Nina. Maybe a good analog year with this one at least for me







The PDO during the summer of 83's was strongly positive June 2.36 July 3.51 Aug 1.85 . Current PDO is also strongly positive. March 2.40

The AMO however was tilted negative June -0.036 July 0.003 August -0.140. Current AMO is positive Feb: 0.171 March: 0.204. That might play a role in how the summer pans out.
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Old 04-29-2016, 08:36 AM
B87 B87 started this thread
 
Location: Surrey/London
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
I have reason to suspect that we are in a 1983 pattern with a quickly dying El Nino and what could be a quick transition to La Nina. Maybe a good analog year with this one at least for me







The PDO during the summer of 83's was strongly positive June 2.36 July 3.51 Aug 1.85 . Current PDO is also strongly positive. March 2.40

The AMO however was tilted negative June -0.036 July 0.003 August -0.140. Current AMO is positive Feb: 0.171 March: 0.204. That might play a role in how the summer pans out.
June 1983 was poor, but July was the 2nd warmest on record, and August was a bit warmer than average too (just like summer 2013). 1983 also saw high dewpoints across the British Isles; 20-24c accompanying the heat.
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Old 04-29-2016, 08:41 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by B87 View Post
June 1983 was poor, but July was the 2nd warmest on record, and August was a bit warmer than average too (just like summer 2013). 1983 also saw high dewpoints across the British Isles; 20-24c accompanying the heat.
Were those dew points at peak heat hours, or just highest 24 hour dew point? Do you have a link? I'd like to see that.
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Old 04-29-2016, 08:43 AM
B87 B87 started this thread
 
Location: Surrey/London
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Were those dew points at peak heat hours, or just highest 24 hour dew point? Do you have a link? I'd like to see that.
The highest was in Valentia, Ireland which had a 24c dp at 31c. London had lower dp but higher temps. I saw it yesterday on another weather forum.
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Old 04-29-2016, 08:44 AM
 
Location: Leeds, UK
22,112 posts, read 29,597,650 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by B87 View Post
June 1983 was poor, but July was the 2nd warmest on record, and August was a bit warmer than average too (just like summer 2013). 1983 also saw high dewpoints across the British Isles; 20-24c accompanying the heat.
On 1 August 2013, we had a temperature of 30C with a dew point of 21C at the same time. The max that day was 31C.
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Old 04-29-2016, 08:47 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by B87 View Post
The highest was in Valentia, Ireland which had a 24c dp at 31c. London had lower dp but higher temps. I saw it yesterday on another weather forum.
Not bad for that far north. 24C dp with a temp of 31C creates a heat index of 36C. A 21C dew point with a 30C temp only creates a heat index of 33C.
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Old 04-29-2016, 08:49 AM
 
Location: Leeds, UK
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It's unusual for it to be hot and humid at the same time here. Usually, at temps of 30C, the dew will probably be around 15C or lower. The source of the heat is usually dry, and dry air is obviously more conductive to higher temps.

On 1 July last year, my PWS recorded a temp of 33C and a dew of 19C. It did briefly creep past 20C.
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Old 04-29-2016, 08:55 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dunno what to put here View Post
It's unusual for it to be hot and humid at the same time here. Usually, at temps of 30C, the dew will probably be around 15C or lower. The source of the heat is usually dry.
Yeah that's why I wanted to see the data. Of all the hot spells that I've examined in London, dew points are pretty low.


July 2006 London had very low dew points accompanied by warm temps. Green was the highest dp for the day

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