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This again. Triple the energy density and the lithium battery is still the most expensive way to store energy.
It’s not that difficult because we’re only forecasting out a couple years. Battery density improvements aren’t going to miraculously triple in 2 years to become competitive with ICE market share. What you have had so far is the Leaf, Volt, and Tesla making very nice but very unprofitable vehicles that all together added up to 2% market share. Let’s double it and say it grows to 4% in two years. Now take that 4% and divide by 100 competitors.
Claiming that Tesla competes well against its ICE competitors is a bit misleading. The Model X isn’t the best selling luxury crossover. The Model S actually competes with the BMW 5 series and is out sold by a margin of 2:1. The Model 3 sells well but it’s still in its honeymoon period compared to its aging competition.
Now let’s look at EVs and PHEV’s that have been complete disappointments.
i3 and i8 are selling a fraction of what was forecasted.
Volt got killed off.
Plug in Pacifica sells only about 5% of Pacifica sales despite have a full tax credit and similar base price and no range anxiety.
Electric Smart sells half of what the gas Smart cars did.
Plug in Mini is the worst selling version of any Mini.
Prius Prime is the least popular Prius.
I have to hand it to Tesla’s PR machine, but they’ve successfully tricked people into thinking EVs are popular despite an ocean of bad news.
I think we’ve been over this multiple times and yet you still repeat the same mistakes. Energy density for gas is high, but it is inefficient in terms of conversion to useful work. While batteries have lower energy densities, the electric motors they drive are incredibly efficient at converting that energy into useful work while motors are also generators so can be used to convert kinetic energy back into electricity when braking.
Your basic logic is faulty. Cars are purchased based on use cases and their market segments. EVs are a heterogenous category in that they are a powertrain type, but that’s not necessarily how people purchase vehicles. Instead, they purchase base on the market segment—that is, the body type of the vehicle and its pricing range. The Model 3’s competition is the entry level premium sedan. As a fairly competitive vehicle in that category, EV or not, the market share it takes is mostly from that segment. The Model S sells in the premium category and is the third or fourth best seller out of about a dozen entries in its segment. No one is ditching their Ram for either of these, because it’s not the same segment. And yea, a lot of the automakers have released subpar EVs that aren’t very competitive in their segment. They’re usually vehicles engineered as ICE vehicles with the EV part ramrodded in. The next few years are going to see a number of EVs in different market segments released with many built as EVs originally or at least made modularly enough to easily accommodate such.
Who is being tricked here? I’m well aware of the actual numbers and the projections. You don’t seem to really understand the data you’re referring, and then on top of that seem to like making inaccurate statements. The problem is that you are reliant on having a set schtick that you believe in, so you need to constantly contort around to try to make your arguments work, but it just comes off as misinformed and oddly sad.
Come on, you know better than that. Just because you drive a Volt doesn’t mean you’re energy independent.
Oil doesn’t compete with alternative energy. They got those tax breaks long before the first solar panel was ever installed. Everything from the food you eat to the computer you’re typing in requires oil. Unless you want the entire planet to adopt an Amish lifestyle, everybody requires oil. Oil needs no incentives aside from competing with other oil companies. If oil production all stopped today, most people would starve to death. You wouldn’t have EVs because EVs require batteries and parts who’s materials all come from diesel powered mining equipment and trucks. You wouldn’t even have electricity because natural gas comes from the same oil companies and same tax breaks. You wouldn’t have asphalt or plastic, because those are the products of oil production. You are 100% dependent on oil, yet I’m not at all dependent on your EV. So there’s that.
Merits aside, any tax you’re not paying is more tax everybody else is paying on your behalf so unless they cut expenses to make up for your credit, it is coming out of my pocket (don’t worry, you’re paying my home interest and my kids and the fact I’m married).
It’s not your money as that money is already spoken for and isn’t optional. The tax break game has always been to get everybody else to pay for the cost of running government.
Aside from perhaps the 1st Gulf War, name one war fought over oil by the US.
Second Gulf War. Destabilizing of Iran with the toppling of its democratically elected president back when the country had a division between church and state and was much more liberal, though that’s still just a war in waiting.
The problem is that you are reliant on having a set schtick that you believe in, so you need to constantly contort around to try to make your arguments work, but it just comes off as misinformed and oddly sad.
When all else fails, insult one's intelligence.
When an electric vehicle can get a three hundred mile charge in ten minutes or less on virtually every street corner in the US, then the gasoline-powered vehicle may see its end in sight.
Aside from perhaps the 1st Gulf War, name one war fought over oil by the US.
The history Geek in me has to point out that the WWII Pacific war largely came about because the U.S. and Japan were eyeing each other up regarding natural resources located around the Pacific Rim. Due to Japanese expansionist policies, the U.S. embargoed oil deliveries to Japan, so Japan decided to cripple the U.S. fleet in Hawaii as a way to buy time to consolidate its holdings, part of which was Indonesian oil. Hitler's Africa campaign was also fought over access to Libyan oil, but that's a bit different, just part of the wider campaign.
So yeah, in a roundabout way, at least part of WWII was fought over strategic access to oil, Japan as an island nation with relatively few natural resources but an appetite to be a modern industrial empire, was a recipe for disaster. Interestingly, they managed to do it in decades since, without having to build another Yamato.
On a side note, the final episode of "Preacher" last night had the main characters discussing "People who saved the world". Churchill and Lincoln made the cut, and then the discussion devolved into Frodo Baggins, LOL. Genius conversation, and it's had me thinking ever since about which historical figures could reasonably make that list. If Elon watched that episode, I'm sure that for at least a second or two, he put himself on it.
It’s not an insult, it’s just what it is and why his arguments are so scattershot. If you come in with a predetermined notion of what something is, but lack knowledge in the topic domain, then you necessarily will have to do that to try to get through any arguments. It is a sad thing to watch. I do like that you decided to lop off everything else that was said. Also, a very great way to address the point.
The simple matter in terms of why EV adoption will be driving forward is an economic one based on technological trends. If manufacturing costs of batteries per unit of capacity keep going down as they have for decades as energy density increases, then this will just keep on hitting more and more use cases, whether automobiles or other uses. Combustion engines meanwhile are not seeing anything near this pace of improvement nor have fuel prices. It’s possible something out of left field can happen, but that’s not easy to predict with any supporting recent history (by definition) whereas at least the near term future of batteries is. These aren’t even particularly new predictions for EVs or batteries.
When an electric vehicle can get a three hundred mile charge in ten minutes or less on virtually every street corner in the US, then the gasoline-powered vehicle may see its end in sight.
I think this also unfortunately shows a bit of lack of knowledge. Most charging for EVs is done while parked and that is also what most cars spend a vast majority of their time doing. Distributing gasoline into every home and parking space is a bit of a bear, but it is expected for electricity. The average driver drives less than forty miles a day and that is easily recoverable at even a slow charging outlet.
In this case, fast chargers take a slightly less primary role that gas stations do so don’t need to be nearly as ubiquitous as their gas counterparts though there certainly needs to be more.
Now, that’s about how important it is to have a fast charging station at every street corner (and somehow you probably would already know if you have tried driving an EV recently). In terms of rate of charge for a fast charger, you’re probably a decade or so away from three hundred miles in ten minutes for a production vehicle provided that the rate of improvement is slower this decade than it has been in the last.
When an electric vehicle can get a three hundred mile charge in ten minutes or less on virtually every street corner in the US, then the gasoline-powered vehicle may see its end in sight.
Why? I can charge my car every night while I’m sleeping and have 300 miles when I wake up. If you had a full tank of gas every morning, how often would you need a fill up during the day?
Claiming that Tesla competes well against its ICE competitors is a bit misleading.
How so - claiming it does not is very misleading, Tesla sells more cars than its competitors https://cleantechnica.com/files/2019...on-Q2-2019.png . According to Bloomberg, Tesla Model 3 has the 5th highest sales of all cars in the US - only Honda Civic & Accord and Toyota Corolla & Camry have more sales. It beats not only its ICE competitors in the entry luxury category but almost all of the ICE cars in all categories. Try again.
Suggest do more research instead of putting out easily verified as false statements. You have an obvious bias against EV's in general and Tesla's specifically, you keep striving to prove to everyone how uninformed you are.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100
The Model S actually competes with the BMW 5 series and is out sold by a margin of 2:1.
This again. The Model S is a large Luxury vehicle and actually competes with the BMW 7 series and MB S class according to the EPA and every reputable automotive publication. The Model S outsells #2 the Mercedes S 2:1 and #3 the Lexus LS 3:1. Show any reputable site that agrees with your comparison other than for speed contests.
Quote:
The Model 3 sells well but it’s still in its honeymoon period compared to its aging competition.
The model 3 has been on sale for over 2 years, not exactly honeymoon period. The Tesla model 3 is the overwhelming sales leader with about 44% of its market, not just "sells well but". Since the Tesla 3 has been for sale, the BMW 3 series and Audi A6 have been updated but they are still not denting the Model 3 sales. To say "aging competition" is disingenuous and trying to minimize that it is the sales leader and is the 5th highest sales of all cars in the US , 3rd highest of all vehicles in UK and highest of all vehicles in Norway (at over 12% of all vehicles sold). https://cleantechnica.com/2019/08/16...ary-july-2019/
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100
I have to hand it to Tesla’s PR machine, but they’ve successfully tricked people into thinking EVs are popular despite an ocean of bad news.
Tesla is the only major vehicle manufacturer that doesn't advertise, but other EV and PHEV are advertised, how does Tesla singularly accomplish that feat? There must NOT be "an ocean of bad news" out there. Somehow, without advertising, they must have "tricked" a large portion of the worlds population also. Here are some real figures on world wide EV sales: EV-Volumes - The Electric Vehicle World Sales Database
Quote:
Global plug-in vehicle deliveries reached 1,134,000 units in the 1st half of 2019, 46 % higher than for 2018. In terms of volumes, the increase was 358,000 units, equal to the entire US plug-in vehicle market of 2018. It includes all BEV and PHEV passenger cars sales, light trucks in the Americas and light commercial vehicle in Europe and Asia. Their share in the global light vehicle market was 3.5 % in June and 2.5 % for 2019 H1. 74 % of sales were all-electric (BEV) and 26 % were plug-in hybrids (PHEV), a massive shift of 11 % towards BEVs, compared to the 1st half of 2018. It was driven by the full availability of the Tesla Model-3, revised taxation/subsidy schemes and the Europe introduction of the more stringent WLTP (Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure) for CO2 emissions, all leading to higher demand for pure EVs.
Suggest get over your emotional rants against EVs, it is not helpful to you or this discussion.
Last edited by ddeemo; 10-01-2019 at 02:08 AM..
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