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Old 09-30-2019, 10:29 AM
 
Location: Maryland
3,798 posts, read 2,327,675 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
No. Tax deductions are not subsidies. Tax breaks are intended to encourage production and exploration.


EVs’ only competitor is non EV powered cars and only EV’s get subsidized.

And EV tax breaks are just that, tax breaks. They aren't checks written to you, they are amounts you can wrote off your taxes. They are exactly the same.

 
Old 09-30-2019, 12:22 PM
 
Location: In the heights
37,157 posts, read 39,441,390 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
No. Tax deductions are not subsidies. Tax breaks are intended to encourage production and exploration. Companies and people don’t get taxed on money they’ve invested back into their business.
Subsidies are intended to artificially sustain an industry to make up for lack of profits.
Oil companies have no competitor aside from other oil companies and all oil companies are entitled to the same tax breaks.
EVs’ only competitor is non EV powered cars and only EV’s get subsidized.
Are tax rebates also included in this or is that something that you want to draw a fine line with?
 
Old 09-30-2019, 02:17 PM
 
Location: In the heights
37,157 posts, read 39,441,390 times
Reputation: 21258
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
Agree on all counts.

There is a risk however that the EV market share may just be stuck in the single digits for far longer than anticipated and risk splitting that 1-2% into hundreds of competitors creating higher overhead, lower margins; and higher risk. If all these hundreds of EVs are really supposed to be on the market in the next couple years the EV swimming pool is going to get crowded really quick. Tesla is barely hanging on and has had the market share almost exclusively to themselves for almost a decade. As of now, there isn’t really a lot of room for sharing.
EVs have only gone above 1% US market share since 2017 and in 2018 was at 2.1% and is very likely to do better this year. I don't know how you went to Tesla having market share almost exclusively to themselves for almost a decade when the Nissan Leaf started off fairly well and there were other offerings. While Tesla has done well in the three market segments it competes in, Tesla only started turning out a majority of the US's EV sales with the launch of the Model 3 in 2017. EV market share probably won't splinter itself as much as it will eat ICE market share, but this would have to come with releases of EVs being competitive in more market segments. This especially means non-premium SUVs and crossovers as well as economy cars and the release slate is going to be there.

One thing that's missing from the points listed is that energy density for batteries is increasing at a pretty rapid rate while cost per capacity has dropped very quickly. This has been the case for several decades now and remains the case today. It's only recently that energy density and cost per capacity for batteries has entered into a range that is useful for making EVs competitive with ICE vehicles which is why EV research and development among several of the majors has ramped up so rapidly in recent years. That investment is now turning into actual releases with the next couple years having a decent slate of different vehicles from different automakers including in market segments that have not had EVs that are truly competitive with ICE yet. In those cases, the only real market share to be grabbed from isn't really other existing EVs, but ICE vehicles. With the rate of change we’re seeing for batteries in the near term in density and cost per capacity and batteries being the single most expensive component, EVs will in a fairly short time period of one or two model generations be equivalent or cheaper than ICE vehicles for the equivalent car across a broad array of market segments by marginal cost though existing automakers will have to eat a lot of capital expenditure in the shift while cannibalizing their own current product lines.

Last edited by OyCrumbler; 09-30-2019 at 02:35 PM..
 
Old 09-30-2019, 02:24 PM
 
9,613 posts, read 6,954,578 times
Reputation: 6842
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvetters63 View Post
And EV tax breaks are just that, tax breaks. They aren't checks written to you, they are amounts you can wrote off your taxes. They are exactly the same.
It’s nothing the same. You get credit because you chose one car over another for the sole purpose of artificially lowering the price of the more expensive car to make it more competitive. You also don’t pay any use taxes for driving on public roads.
 
Old 09-30-2019, 02:40 PM
 
Location: Maryland
3,798 posts, read 2,327,675 times
Reputation: 6650
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
It’s nothing the same. You get credit because you chose one car over another for the sole purpose of artificially lowering the price of the more expensive car to make it more competitive. You also don’t pay any use taxes for driving on public roads.

A tax credit is the same as a tax credit no matter how much your little brain wants them to be different.


Tax credits go to oil companies for the sole purpose of making oil less expensive vs alternatives in this country. Same exact incentive to go after more expensive to get oil as the car tax credit incentivizes you to get a more expensive car. And in the car case, not a single penny to buy MY car comes out of YOUR pocket. Unlike a subsidy, which is where YOUR tax dollars would pay for MY car. Now in the oil industry, our tax dollars ARE going to keep the oil flowing. And that's been the case for decades, with wars fought in the ME over oil and oil producing countries in tension.
 
Old 09-30-2019, 02:53 PM
 
9,613 posts, read 6,954,578 times
Reputation: 6842
Quote:
Originally Posted by OyCrumbler View Post
EVs have only gone above 1% US market share since 2017 and in 2018 was at 2.1% and is very likely to do better this year. I don't know how you went to Tesla having market share almost exclusively to themselves for almost a decade when the Nissan Leaf started off fairly well and there were other offerings. While Tesla has done well in the three market segments it competes in, Tesla only started turning out a majority of the US's EV sales with the launch of the Model 3 in 2017. EV market share probably won't splinter itself as much as it will eat ICE market share, but this would have to come with releases of EVs being competitive in more market segments. This especially means non-premium SUVs and crossovers as well as economy cars and the release slate is going to be there.

One thing that's missing from the points listed is that energy density for batteries is increasing at a pretty rapid rate while cost per capacity has dropped very quickly. This has been the case for several decades now and remains the case today. It's only recently that energy density and cost per capacity for batteries has entered into a range that is useful for making EVs competitive with ICE vehicles which is why EV research and development among several of the majors has ramped up their investment so rapidly in recent years. That investment is now turning into actual releases with the next couple years having a decent slate of different vehicles from different automakers including in market segments that have not had EVs that are truly competitive with ICE yet. In those cases, the only real market share to be grabbed from isn't really other existing EVs, but ICE vehicles.
This again. Triple the energy density and the lithium battery is still the most expensive way to store energy.

It’s not that difficult because we’re only forecasting out a couple years. Battery density improvements aren’t going to miraculously triple in 2 years to become competitive with ICE market share. What you have had so far is the Leaf, Volt, and Tesla making very nice but very unprofitable vehicles that all together added up to 2% market share. Let’s double it and say it grows to 4% in two years. Now take that 4% and divide by 100 competitors.
Claiming that Tesla competes well against its ICE competitors is a bit misleading. The Model X isn’t the best selling luxury crossover. The Model S actually competes with the BMW 5 series and is out sold by a margin of 2:1. The Model 3 sells well but it’s still in its honeymoon period compared to its aging competition.

Now let’s look at EVs and PHEV’s that have been complete disappointments.
i3 and i8 are selling a fraction of what was forecasted.
Volt got killed off.
Plug in Pacifica sells only about 5% of Pacifica sales despite have a full tax credit and similar base price and no range anxiety.
Electric Smart sells half of what the gas Smart cars did.
Plug in Mini is the worst selling version of any Mini.
Prius Prime is the least popular Prius.

I have to hand it to Tesla’s PR machine, but they’ve successfully tricked people into thinking EVs are popular despite an ocean of bad news.
 
Old 09-30-2019, 04:12 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
15,293 posts, read 17,693,981 times
Reputation: 25236
Quote:
Originally Posted by johntd06 View Post
They are years away from self driving cars. The only way it would work is if the embedded sensors in the roads and had a network that all the cars on the road coyld talk to Each other on. Money can be better spent by putting more time and resources into cleaner burning motors.
Don't blink. It's amazing how fast five years can go by.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnkUO4EDhbw
 
Old 09-30-2019, 04:47 PM
 
9,613 posts, read 6,954,578 times
Reputation: 6842
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvetters63 View Post
A tax credit is the same as a tax credit no matter how much your little brain wants them to be different.


Tax credits go to oil companies for the sole purpose of making oil less expensive vs alternatives in this country. Same exact incentive to go after more expensive to get oil as the car tax credit incentivizes you to get a more expensive car. And in the car case, not a single penny to buy MY car comes out of YOUR pocket. Unlike a subsidy, which is where YOUR tax dollars would pay for MY car. Now in the oil industry, our tax dollars ARE going to keep the oil flowing. And that's been the case for decades, with wars fought in the ME over oil and oil producing countries in tension.
Come on, you know better than that. Just because you drive a Volt doesn’t mean you’re energy independent.

Oil doesn’t compete with alternative energy. They got those tax breaks long before the first solar panel was ever installed. Everything from the food you eat to the computer you’re typing in requires oil. Unless you want the entire planet to adopt an Amish lifestyle, everybody requires oil. Oil needs no incentives aside from competing with other oil companies. If oil production all stopped today, most people would starve to death. You wouldn’t have EVs because EVs require batteries and parts who’s materials all come from diesel powered mining equipment and trucks. You wouldn’t even have electricity because natural gas comes from the same oil companies and same tax breaks. You wouldn’t have asphalt or plastic, because those are the products of oil production. You are 100% dependent on oil, yet I’m not at all dependent on your EV. So there’s that.

Merits aside, any tax you’re not paying is more tax everybody else is paying on your behalf so unless they cut expenses to make up for your credit, it is coming out of my pocket (don’t worry, you’re paying my home interest and my kids and the fact I’m married).
It’s not your money as that money is already spoken for and isn’t optional. The tax break game has always been to get everybody else to pay for the cost of running government.

Aside from perhaps the 1st Gulf War, name one war fought over oil by the US.

Last edited by Ziggy100; 09-30-2019 at 04:56 PM..
 
Old 09-30-2019, 04:58 PM
 
656 posts, read 1,376,117 times
Reputation: 1266
The OP is concerned because he/she is onto something. L Ron Hubbard returned from the dead in late July, and this has been kept secret by MJ12. According to my sources, he has bio engineered cossack midgets to help him exact vengeance on mankind. From the "other side" he brought R2D2 and Michael Jackson. If you have been doing your homework, you would remember that R2 and MJ had a baby, named Elon Musk. This was probably planned long ago. Elon will be using electric cars and self-driving vehicles to punish citizens who are deemed politically unreliable. With nobody in the driver's seat, they can run down anyone they want, there is nobody to sue. During stage two, the public will be micro chipped and forced to worship Abe Vigoda. Violators will find themselves in camps doing ten year sentences of constant Zumba lessons and Amway pitches. Those who perform very well will be put on a flying saucer and sent to a star system 26 light years away (Zeta Reticuli), or if the saucer isn't running that day, to Detroit by bus.
 
Old 09-30-2019, 07:37 PM
 
Location: 0.83 Atmospheres
11,474 posts, read 11,567,247 times
Reputation: 11987
Quote:
Originally Posted by Edvard View Post
The OP is concerned because he/she is onto something. L Ron Hubbard returned from the dead in late July, and this has been kept secret by MJ12. According to my sources, he has bio engineered cossack midgets to help him exact vengeance on mankind. From the "other side" he brought R2D2 and Michael Jackson. If you have been doing your homework, you would remember that R2 and MJ had a baby, named Elon Musk. This was probably planned long ago. Elon will be using electric cars and self-driving vehicles to punish citizens who are deemed politically unreliable. With nobody in the driver's seat, they can run down anyone they want, there is nobody to sue. During stage two, the public will be micro chipped and forced to worship Abe Vigoda. Violators will find themselves in camps doing ten year sentences of constant Zumba lessons and Amway pitches. Those who perform very well will be put on a flying saucer and sent to a star system 26 light years away (Zeta Reticuli), or if the saucer isn't running that day, to Detroit by bus.
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