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This again. Triple the energy density and the lithium battery is still the most expensive way to store energy.
It’s not that difficult because we’re only forecasting out a couple years. Battery density improvements aren’t going to miraculously triple in 2 years to become competitive with ICE market share. What you have had so far is the Leaf, Volt, and Tesla making very nice but very unprofitable vehicles that all together added up to 2% market share. Let’s double it and say it grows to 4% in two years. Now take that 4% and divide by 100 competitors.
Claiming that Tesla competes well against its ICE competitors is a bit misleading. The Model X isn’t the best selling luxury crossover. The Model S actually competes with the BMW 5 series and is out sold by a margin of 2:1. The Model 3 sells well but it’s still in its honeymoon period compared to its aging competition.
Now let’s look at EVs and PHEV’s that have been complete disappointments.
i3 and i8 are selling a fraction of what was forecasted.
Volt got killed off.
Plug in Pacifica sells only about 5% of Pacifica sales despite have a full tax credit and similar base price and no range anxiety.
Electric Smart sells half of what the gas Smart cars did.
Plug in Mini is the worst selling version of any Mini.
Prius Prime is the least popular Prius.
I have to hand it to Tesla’s PR machine, but they’ve successfully tricked people into thinking EVs are popular despite an ocean of bad news.
You forget that an EV's motors aren't as large and heavy as the ICE drivetrain and exhaust system so batteries can take up that weight and volume. Yea, lithium batteries are a relatively expensive way to store energy compared to a gas tank. The electricity itself is cheaper though. There's the more minor point that regenerative braking allows recovery of energy while braking.
There's not 100 competitors in two years and not all EVs are launching in the same market segment. The Volkswagen ID.3 is not going to be competing for Taycan buyers. That as a basic premise isn't reasonable.
What is your version of competing well? If out of three vehicles, one is far ahead in the lead for market share in its segment, another is third or fourth out of a dozen for another segment, and the third vehicle is mid-pack, then how is that not competing well? It's also odd that a honeymoon period for a car would last over two years. What is that?
I'm definitely not arguing that there aren't EVs and PHEVs that have been disappointing. I think some of them came with range and prices that simply were not competitive and others just never found a niche. I don't know what i3 and i8s projected sales were, but definitely hybrids aren't doing very well though it is odd that the Pacifica hybrid does as poorly as it does--maybe it has something to do with it only being available in the higher trim lines with a starting MSRP of about $40K versus a starting MSRP for the gas version at $27K, but I don't really know how sales of the gas Pacificas break down when it comes to top and bottom trim lines.
And what makes you think people are tricked into thinking EVs are popular now? Who are you citing as saying that?
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 10-01-2019 at 12:27 PM..
If you bought that, I have some beachfront property for sale.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvetters63
Both Gulf wars were over stability in the ME, The first was about Iraq invading Kuwait, one of our oil suppliers. The second was simply a continuation of the first. Had zero to do with WMDs. And all the actions in that region before were about keeping the oil lanes open and flowing freely. We didn't want Russia taking over that region and getting all the oil.
You bought into anti war propaganda. Oil cost the same regardless of who is selling it.
Electric motors are in practice 3 times as efficient at their worst which would be against a very efficient ICE generally running around 30-40 miles per hour continuously without stopping for traffic or traffic lights which isn't the most versatile comparison. The energy density difference between gas and current mass production lithium-ion batteries is high (not 100 times difference these days, more like 60 times which is still very significant). What makes up for some of that today is that the other components of an ICE vehicle powertrain and exhaust system aren't necessary so that weight and volume can be used for batteries and regenerative braking which allows you to recover some of the kinetic energy back as charge when braking.
Cars, buses, trucks, and trains (there's been a series of battery electric trains deployed in recent years) are where the energy density and costs improvements with batteries have now made EVs competitive. They aren't going to be competitive for planes or space launches (though maybe someone will surprise everyone with a non-rocket space launch in the near future) for quite a while.
The i3 and i8 was not EV parts ramrodded in nor was the Leaf and some others--the Pacifica was. The i3 is useful as a city car, but there's not a huge market for that in the US. I'm not too familiar with the i8. I do think the hybrid Pacifica not selling very well is interesting. Hybrids aren't doing too well in the US market lately, that's for sure. The shift has been towards all-electric for better or worse.
Tesla went all-in on electric vehicles. Yea, it has a lot of other bells and whistles that aren't EV related which other automakers also are pushing to market whether EV or not. Teslas are still EVs that take advantage of what EVs do better than ICE vehicles and it's helped push other automakers to have invested a lot more in electric vehicle development and fairly good, though usually pricey, vehicles have been released recently and more are slated to come.
Except electric buses, trains, garbage trucks, etc. are either non existent or extremely rare. Energy density becomes an even bigger deal the larger the vehicle. The engine weight barely changes, but the fuel it consumes takes up very little weight and space.
The Pacifica still works well as a plug in hybrid. It literally has no drawbacks but has every advantage as an EV. It’s even a minivan which by nature is marketed to practical buyers. Even in gas mode it gets better gas mileage. The price is about the same and you get a tax credit. It’s just not popular.
Point is, tell people it’s the best possible technology until you’re blue in the face, but that alone doesn’t mean anything unless it drives itself and streams Netflix or something. That’s why hybrids never took off despite reaching cost parity with convention engines.
Except electric buses, trains, garbage trucks, etc. are either non existent or extremely rare. Energy density becomes an even bigger deal the larger the vehicle. The engine weight barely changes, but the fuel it consumes takes up very little weight and space.
The Pacifica still works well as a plug in hybrid. It literally has no drawbacks but has every advantage as an EV. It’s even a minivan which by nature is marketed to practical buyers. Even in gas mode it gets better gas mileage. The price is about the same and you get a tax credit. It’s just not popular.
Point is, tell people it’s the best possible technology until you’re blue in the face, but that alone doesn’t mean anything unless it drives itself and streams Netflix or something. That’s why hybrids never took off despite reaching cost parity with convention engines.
In the US, buses have expected 15 year minimum life in transit fleets (and often much longer), so there's not going to be a massive changeover at once unless it's accompanied by a massive expansion of bus services. Most major US transit fleets are at the very least testing electric buses. Electric trains are common in local regional passenger service, though not battery electric.
In terms of the the rest of the world, uptake of battery electric buses and trains has been faster and these will eventually be making larger inroads in the US. One of the nice things about them is that regenerative braking means a lot more when there's a lot more mass to decelerate. Municipal buses are especially good candidates because the stop and go traffic along with bus stops coupled with the large mass to accelerate and decelerate make especially good use of regenerative braking.
Pacifica Hybrid has a minimum MSRP of 40K and the Pacifica has one of about 28K. That's a large difference. The hybrid is offered only on the higher trim lines where the prices are equivalent, but I'm guessing your 5% is inclusive of not just the premium trim lines where the hybrid is offered--is that correct? Are you including all trim lines? Would it be surprising if you weren't including all trim lines and on one hand you'd count all the trim lines for sales, but on the other you'd claim this was all equivalent pricing? It'd be nice to see what the breakdown by trim line is. I do like the Pacifica Hybrid though! Minivans and vans have always been my favorite type of car and I especially like modding them and would love to race a Dajiban some day.
When you start having EVs with competitive pricing in all major market segments, you're going to see a greater shift. It's not a bite out of other EVs--it's a bite out of market share in existing segments where there are currently no competitive EVs.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 10-01-2019 at 01:41 PM..
In the US, buses have expected 15 year minimum life in transit fleets (and often much longer), so there's not going to be a massive changeover at once unless it's accompanied by a massive expansion of bus services. Most major US transit fleets are at the very least testing electric buses. Electric trains are common in local regional passenger service, though not battery electric.
In terms of the the rest of the world, uptake of battery electric buses and trains has been faster and these will eventually be making larger inroads in the US. One of the nice things about them is that regenerative braking means a lot more when there's a lot more mass to decelerate. Municipal buses are especially good candidates because the stop and go traffic along with bus stops coupled with the large mass to accelerate and decelerate make especially good use of regenerative braking.
Pacifica Hybrid has a minimum MSRP of 40K and the Pacifica has one of about 28K. That's a large difference. The hybrid is offered only on the higher trim lines where the prices are equivalent, but I'm guessing your 5% is inclusive of not just the premium trim lines where the hybrid is offered--is that correct? Are you including all trim lines? Would it be surprising if you weren't including all trim lines and on one hand you'd count all the trim lines for sales, but on the other you'd claim this was all equivalent pricing? It'd be nice to see what the breakdown by trim line is. I do like the Pacifica Hybrid though! Minivans and vans have always been my favorite type of car and I especially like modding them and would love to race a Dajiban some day.
When you start having EVs with competitive pricing in all major market segments, you're going to see a greater shift. It's not a bite out of other EVs--it's a bite out of market share in existing segments where there are currently no competitive EVs.
We’ll have to go by anecdotes because they don’t seem to list them by trim levels, but the Pacifica’s I’ve seen are all fully loaded top trim levels. The dealers all seem to stock a high percentage of top trim levels, yet hybrids are unicorns. They’re even splitting the model next year and putting lower trim levels as Voyagers and top trim levels as Pacificas. I’ve seriously considered the hybrid, but I’m not dealing with anything with just 5% market share. That means no skilled mechanics, afterthought software updates, rare parts, etc. In theory a pretty sweet deal on paper though.
We’ll have to go by anecdotes because they don’t seem to list them by trim levels, but the Pacifica’s I’ve seen are all fully loaded top trim levels. The dealers all seem to stock a high percentage of top trim levels, yet hybrids are unicorns. They’re even splitting the model next year and putting lower trim levels as Voyagers and top trim levels as Pacificas. I’ve seriously considered the hybrid, but I’m not dealing with anything with just 5% market share. That means no skilled mechanics, afterthought software updates, rare parts, etc. In theory a pretty sweet deal on paper though.
I think that three things hurt the Pacifica PHEV sales: One is that you lose the 2nd row stow n' go with the hybrid (which isn't huge, but it is a big selling point for FCA). The second is that FCA minivans have sold well due to their being "low cost but good value" relative to the Asian competitors. I only paid like $22K out the door for my Caravan, but admittedly it is a lower-end trim (not leather or power doors, but has stowable seats) - but it is what I wanted, I don't want power doors with dogs in the car. So I'd have to keep the $40 grand PHEV for a zillion or so miles to break even on the fuel. Since I don't want the higher trim level, I have no interest in the hybrid. Third, FCA does not have a stellar reputation for reliability, especially among reviewers. I know that my own van has been reliable thus far, but it is "showing its age" at 70K miles, I'll be thrilled if it makes 100K without a major repair to the driveline. Bottom line, being their first hybrid, I'm not sure I want to be an FCA Lab Monkey for testing its reliability, I'd have a lot more confidence in a Toyota PHEV.
2nd Gulf War was over weapons of mass destruction. Contrary to popular belief, oil prices were actually pretty stable in the 90’s and oil sells for market price regardless of how anti American a foreign dictator is. You don’t have to take over a country to get a good deal on oil. That’s the beauty of the free market economy.
i didnt think anyone believed that anymore. the us fights wars primarily because of the military industrial complex. it spends $1 trillion a year on murdering people, you need some wars to keep that going. oil countries have worked out nicely because they cant fight back so little risk of a souring public and also the price of oil jumps which is nice for bribery from oil extractors.
You forget that an EV's motors aren't as large and heavy as the ICE drivetrain and exhaust system so batteries can take up that weight and volume. Yea, lithium batteries are a relatively expensive way to store energy compared to a gas tank. The electricity itself is cheaper though. There's the more minor point that regenerative braking allows recovery of energy while braking.
There's not 100 competitors in two years and not all EVs are launching in the same market segment. The Volkswagen ID.3 is not going to be competing for Taycan buyers. That as a basic premise isn't reasonable.
What is your version of competing well? If out of three vehicles, one is far ahead in the lead for market share in its segment, another is third or fourth out of a dozen for another segment, and the third vehicle is mid-pack, then how is that not competing well? It's also odd that a honeymoon period for a car would last over two years. What is that?
I'm definitely not arguing that there aren't EVs and PHEVs that have been disappointing. I think some of them came with range and prices that simply were not competitive and others just never found a niche. I don't know what i3 and i8s projected sales were, but definitely hybrids aren't doing very well though it is odd that the Pacifica hybrid does as poorly as it does--maybe it has something to do with it only being available in the higher trim lines with a starting MSRP of about $40K versus a starting MSRP for the gas version at $27K, but I don't really know how sales of the gas Pacificas break down when it comes to top and bottom trim lines.
And what makes you think people are tricked into thinking EVs are popular now? Who are you citing as saying that?
I didn’t forget because it’s irrelevant. In my usual BMW 3 Series vs Model 3 example, they both weigh about the same, but the BMW goes twice as far. You can make the drivetrain even lighter... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wir...er-le-mans/amp
I think that three things hurt the Pacifica PHEV sales: One is that you lose the 2nd row stow n' go with the hybrid (which isn't huge, but it is a big selling point for FCA). The second is that FCA minivans have sold well due to their being "low cost but good value" relative to the Asian competitors. I only paid like $22K out the door for my Caravan, but admittedly it is a lower-end trim (not leather or power doors, but has stowable seats) - but it is what I wanted, I don't want power doors with dogs in the car. So I'd have to keep the $40 grand PHEV for a zillion or so miles to break even on the fuel. Since I don't want the higher trim level, I have no interest in the hybrid. Third, FCA does not have a stellar reputation for reliability, especially among reviewers. I know that my own van has been reliable thus far, but it is "showing its age" at 70K miles, I'll be thrilled if it makes 100K without a major repair to the driveline. Bottom line, being their first hybrid, I'm not sure I want to be an FCA Lab Monkey for testing its reliability, I'd have a lot more confidence in a Toyota PHEV.
You’re not wrong, but people do buy top trim level minivans (Odessy’s and Sienna’s can hit the low $50ks as well) and people apparently trust FCA enough to buy their cars and most minivan owners are obsessed with practicality. The hybrid is a top trim level van that you get paid to buy (With tax credit).
That being said, not sure why the Japanese who invented the hybrid got caught sleeping at the wheel and let FCA beat them to a hybrid minivan. Seems like a no brainer.
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