[Cambium]

We're heading to Christmas without a snowstorm.

December is the new March. March is the new December

[simonusa3]

The biggest threat in the next five days appears to be the threat of flooding on Monday. NWS this morning put this out for Monday. Who knows IF it's right...but if these numbers verify it could cause small stream and urban flooding. Add in the 50 mph wind gusts and tides above normal...and it could get wild late Sunday into Monday. Everyone should check those sump pumps:






Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
739 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Rain chances ramp up through the day with the entire forecast area
likely seeing rain by the end of the afternoon. The rain could be
heavy at times mainly during Sunday night as a strong low level jet
develops over us and combines with deep synoptic lift aloft and an
anomalously moist air mass. Some models continue to show some
elevated instability, so with deep lift, will keep in an isolated
thunderstorm in the forecast. Rain chances continue into Monday even
behind the front as the flow aloft remains cyclonic and we`ll be
within the right entrance region of an upper jet streak. Should
precipitation actually occur Monday morning over the higher
elevations well NW of the city, some snowflakes may mix in with
showers. 1.5-2.5" of rainfall is expected Sunday afternoon through
Monday morning. The heaviest rainfall is most likely to occur during
Sunday night. Minor urban/small stream flooding will be possible,
mainly Sunday night - confidence in this is moderate. Cannot
completely rule out flash flooding either, but this is a lower
confidence forecast as chances are low given flash flood guidance
and the progressive nature of the storm system

[RoundTableKnight]

Ah yes the threat of flooding in December. On the really cold days we get the littlest of flakes that don't mean anything but when it warms up THAT is when we get the storm system.

I'm no weather guy I just like seeing yours and Cambiums posts, but what's the deal with that? Lol

I think maybe starting next year we should change "let it snow" and "dreaming of a white Christmas" to "Let it Rain" and "Im dreading of a wet rainy Christmas "

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by Cambium

We're heading to Christmas without a snowstorm.

December is the new March. March is the new December

In hindsight Christmas has rarely been "white" in the Bing Crosby/Irving Berlin sense in our neck of the woods. The ocean and sound water is just too warm for that. Years such as 2020 that had good accumulated snow on the ground are rare. There have been a few years that have come maddeningly close; 1) 2009's big snow about a week earlier was washed away by rain on Christmas; 2) Christmas 2002 (after a big but long-gone snow earlier that month) changed from rain to snow in the late afternoon, making the trip home from my parents a bloody mess; 3) 1969 started as snow late Christmas night and then turned to rain at 6:00 a.m., then back to snow twelve hours later; 4) 2008 and 2013 had slight rapidly melting snow on the ground; 5) 2010 had a huge storm, one day late; and 6) the snow that set a record that stood for a long time, 1947, came on December 26-27. In the best of winters, Christmas is right on the frontier of the start of the snows.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by jbgusa

In hindsight Christmas has rarely been "white" in the Bing Crosby/Irving Berlin sense in our neck of the woods. The ocean and sound water is just too warm for that. Years such as 2020 that had good accumulated snow on the ground are rare. There have been a few years that have come maddeningly close; 1) 2009's big snow about a week earlier was washed away by rain on Christmas; 2) Christmas 2002 (after a big but long-gone snow earlier that month) changed from rain to snow in the late afternoon, making the trip home from my parents a bloody mess; 3) 1969 started as snow late Christmas night and then turned to rain at 6:00 a.m., then back to snow twelve hours later; 4) 2008 and 2013 had slight rapidly melting snow on the ground; 5) 2010 had a huge storm, one day late; and 6) the snow that set a record that stood for a long time, 1947, came on December 26-27. In the best of winters, Christmas is right on the frontier of the start of the snows.

The long term average is about once every 4-5 years, though it's been less often than that in the last 50 or so years and that average is skewed by it being a little more often in the 1800s and first half of the 20th century.

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

The long term average is about once every 4-5 years, though it's been less often than that in the last 50 or so years and that average is skewed by it being a little more often in the 1800s and first half of the 20th century.

I'd like to see what years were considered "white." I was born in 1957 and I remember darned few. 1960 had a big dump in early December that had mostly washed away. In 1963 I remember leaving my aunt and uncle's apartment, and on our way to the car my Dad pointed to a haloed moon which he expected would mean snow the next day. I don't know if it did. I don't remember 1964 too well; our first year in the suburbs. 1965 was a torch, and we were on our way to Florida. 1966 and 1967 might have been. 1968 we had had a mid-month dump so there was probably leftover snow. 1969 it snowed that night and I think we had remnant snow from earlier light snow events. 1970, as well. 1971-4 were torches. 1975 had some. I don't think 1976-79 did. Get the picture? And the 1980's and 1990's were no better.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, 2002 and 2008 were the only memorable snow years for Christmas. 2010 we missed by a day (the Boxing Day Blizzard). 2011 was a torch. 2012 was not snowy. We had maybe an inch on the ground in 2013. And so it goes.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by jbgusa

I'd like to see what years were considered "white." I was born in 1957 and I remember darned few. 1960 had a big dump in early December that had mostly washed away. In 1963 I remember leaving my aunt and uncle's apartment, and on our way to the car my Dad pointed to a haloed moon which he expected would mean snow the next day. I don't know if it did. I don't remember 1964 too well; our first year in the suburbs. 1965 was a torch, and we were on our way to Florida. 1966 and 1967 might have been. 1968 we had had a mid-month dump so there was probably leftover snow. 1969 it snowed that night and I think we had remnant snow from earlier light snow events. 1970, as well. 1971-4 were torches. 1975 had some. I don't think 1976-79 did. Get the picture? And the 1980's and 1990's were no better.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, 2002 and 2008 were the only memorable snow years for Christmas. 2010 we missed by a day (the Boxing Day Blizzard). 2011 was a torch. 2012 was not snowy. We had maybe an inch on the ground in 2013. And so it goes.

I said first half of the century (i.e. before 1950). And even then I think the average was like 1 in every 3 or 4 years, still not common.

I'm 10 years younger than you so just missed 1966 and wouldn't remember 1967 or 1969, so it's pretty much the ones you mention after that for me. I don't remember us having too many either. NWS considers an inch or more on the ground anytime during Dec 25.

While I can't vouch for snow on the ground at 12:01am on Dec 25, if we go by it actually snowing an inch or more on Christmas Day before 1950, NWS only shows 1883, 1902, 1904, and 1909. It does note that 1919 and 1930 had snow on the ground because it happened on Dec 24 and that 1924, 1926, and 1934 had under an inch fall on the day. I don't know if that covers every year pre-1950 with Christmas snow cover, but it does seem less common than 1 in 4.

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

While I can't vouch for snow on the ground at 12:01am on Dec 25, if we go by it actually snowing an inch or more on Christmas Day before 1950, NWS only shows 1883, 1902, 1904, and 1909. It does note that 1919 and 1930 had snow on the ground because it happened on Dec 24 and that 1924, 1926, and 1934 had under an inch fall on the day. I don't know if that covers every year pre-1950 with Christmas snow cover, but it does seem less common than 1 in 4.

Definitely. An I think the NWS's definition including "any time on Christmas day" ignores the experience of actual human being since most don't think of snow starting at 10:00 p.m., i.e. 1969 for example, as a "White Christmas," particularly when it transitions to rain by 7:00 a.m. the next day, which that one did.

[simonusa3]

Originally Posted by RoundTableKnight

Ah yes the threat of flooding in December. On the really cold days we get the littlest of flakes that don't mean anything but when it warms up THAT is when we get the storm system.

I'm no weather guy I just like seeing yours and Cambiums posts, but what's the deal with that? Lol

I think maybe starting next year we should change "let it snow" and "dreaming of a white Christmas" to "Let it Rain" and "Im dreading of a wet rainy Christmas "

I would say that a normal/milder weather pattern now - is no guarantee of what lies ahead. A change to stormier or colder times could always be down the road. While that doesn’t look the case until late in the month, forecasts beyond 7 days always are 50/50.

As far as snow goes, … in truth, because of media hype/TV weather people, many people have an unrealistic expectation for snow on the East Coast, especially below Massachusetts.

In locations like upstate NY (think Rochester, Syracuse, Buffalo), all the wind has to do is blow over the unfrozen lakes…and they get snow. In the case of cities like Denver, Duluth, out West…etc., they always have the cold air in place. For a us on the East Coast, a weather system must be in the right place…at the right time…. with the cold air in place… to get significant snow. Most low-pressure systems that make it to the far eastern USA, move toward the St. Lawerence Valley or western New England, so places south of Massachusetts and east/southeast of the Appalachian mts (coastal plain) always struggle to get snow. There’s a reason why Syracuse averages 127 inches and Bridgeport or Trenton averages 27 inches…its part of the basic climate of the region it seems.

[Cambium]

The warm before the storm... Calm too.



Expect wind gusts to peak between 40 and 50 mph across Connecticut from Sunday at 10 p.m. through Monday at 1 a.m. Rain, heavy at times, and a possible thunderstorm are expected Sunday through early Monday morning.



Rainfall amounts. Expect local flooding too