[simonusa3]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

NWS is hedging it's bets on the 19th and now saying rain changing to snow, even in NYC.

I didn't see that. Maybe (not sure) that NWS NYC meant some snow showers as the storm pulls away and some cold air gets involved, but by that time the storm will be gone.

This is from NWS Boston this morning. Looks like they are saying rain. The temp profiles look pretty warm this morning so I could see how they would make this forecast. A LOT of subtropical moisture is going to get involved with this, that much is for sure.


FXUS61 KBOX 151456
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
956 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2023

Latest suite of deterministic and ensemble model guidance continues
to trend toward a strong low-pressure system impacting southern New
England Sunday night through most of Monday. This system will be the
product of a low-pressure system from the Gulf of Mexico interacting
with northern stream energy that will be digging through the central
states. These disturbances will support a deep low-pressure system
along the east coast characterized by a robust low-level jet that
could contain wind speeds up to 80 knots at 925 hPa. In addition to
robust jet dynamics, this storm will be bringing plenty of moisture.
The moisture parameters in our ensemble situational awareness table
are nearly maxed out on Monday, further signaling this as an
anomalous event. With an 80 knot low level jet and PWATs ranging
from 1.25 to 1.5 inches, this system will likely bring both strong
wind and heavy rainfall to southern New England. Given this system
will have an inland track, confidence is high that this will be an
all rain event.

[simonusa3]

Before the storm on Sunday/Monday....the Tri-State area and really the whole East Coast, is in for some nice weather this weekend. Strong High pressure over West Virginia will move slowly right over us and provide late March like temps. So mild temps and sunshine for the next few days. We should get out and enjoy it after all the rainy weekends back in Sept/Oct. Perfect Fri-/Sat- Sun (early) for shopping, hike, beach walk...etc. I'm going to finish installing my new gutters.

[Cambium]

Something brewing end of month? 27th-29th time frame.

4 runs in a row now GFS model showing a potential storm and given the pattern has to break soon I wonder if enough cold air will be around for it. Stay Tuned. Otherwise our pattern continues. UP-DOWN-WARM-COLD-RAIN-DRY-SUNNY

[Cambium]

Tuesday Snow Update:

1st storm a powerhouse making landfall over Long Island and crossing through CT. Note the rain/snow line well west of us, no where near so its rain over us.

But as the storm leaves, that cold front and rain/snow line will push off the coast



And here is Tuesday morning.. Note the rain/snow line. So its cold enough over CT for all snow if any precip from that second forming storm occurs. We'll have to see if that 2nd storm forms off the coast!




And here are the 2 in motion

[Wilton2ParkAve]

Sunday looks like a soaker (but not epic, 1-2”) but we continue to see the wind overhyped. They called for 60+ last week on the shore and maybe crested 15 lol. Why are the models so far off?

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve

Sunday looks like a soaker (but not epic, 1-2”) but we continue to see the wind overhyped. They called for 60+ last week on the shore and maybe crested 15 lol. Why are the models so far off?

Fear porn.

[Cambium]

You guys better hope the NAM model is wrong, Better get your gas and propane tanks ready just in case



Also... snow chances have diminished for Tuesday.

[Wilton2ParkAve]

Originally Posted by Cambium

You guys better hope the NAM model is wrong, Better get your gas and propane tanks ready just in case



Also... snow chances have diminished for Tuesday.

When was the last time the NAM was correct? (Serious question - that model is an insult to U.S. hegemony) Standby generator in working order either way.

[simonusa3]

Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve

When was the last time the NAM was correct? (Serious question - that model is an insult to U.S. hegemony) Standby generator in working order either way.

As far as the storm for Sunday – Monday…it looks like it will be similar to a weak tropical storm - we should have heavy rain, maybe with some modest flooding, mild temps 55 – 60 F, and wind gusts will likely be in the 40 to 55 mph range. Of course, unlike in the warm season, there are no leaves on the trees now, so I would guess tree damage/power outages would be less than we would see in a normal weak tropical system. The models always seem to overdo things a bit.

All and all, should be another wet and warm ocean storm that quickly pulls away by late Monday night. NO chance of any icy weather as the storm pulls away. By Tuesday the sun should be back out and temps should be in the seasonable 40’s F.

After that...well nothing of note until maybe another rainstorm near the end of the month. It looks like December 2023 will remembered as a warm and wet month in the Tri-State area.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by simonusa3

As far as the storm for Sunday – Monday…it looks like it will be similar to a weak tropical storm - we should have heavy rain, maybe with some modest flooding, mild temps 55 – 60 F, and wind gusts will likely be in the 40 to 55 mph range. Of course, unlike in the warm season, there are no leaves on the trees now, so I would guess tree damage/power outages would be less than we would see in a normal weak tropical system. The models always seem to overdo things a bit.

All and all, should be another wet and warm ocean storm that quickly pulls away by late Monday night. NO chance of any icy weather as the storm pulls away. By Tuesday the sun should be back out and temps should be in the seasonable 40’s F.

After that...well nothing of note until maybe another rainstorm near the end of the month. It looks like December 2023 will remembered as a warm and wet month in the Tri-State area.

Some models have the end of the month being snow, but we'll wait and see. Snow seems to be taken off for the table Tuesday (NWS, but see below) as well as Christmas Eve/Day (not even rain, now sunny and seasonable). Though channel 4 news last night said maybe a little snow this Monday night into Tuesday morning, but Tuesday night clear.