[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by simonusa3

Good old Caribou...can't stop snow from falling there no matter what. LOL

And looks like they have several inches more coming this weekend....

[simonusa3]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

But the real science is to look at the world as a whole. When you average the world as a whole it has been consistently above average compared to prior decades and rising a little each year since the late 1980s. Alaska has had above average snowfall too (temperatures near to slightly below normal, but even slightly above generally cold enough for snow there). Another way to look at the "loads the dice" analogy is daily record highs are broken a lot more often than record lows and have been since the early 1990s.

I think another part of it is that most people (and I blame the weather media for this) have no real idea what is normal vs abnormal.

You mentioned a few posts back how the 2000 to 2015 was one that had one of the highest amounts of seasonal snowfall for many of the NWS Tri-State stations. 100% true. So if you believe that nature balances things out (I do)...maybe we are about to enter an equally long period of below normal snowfall? Maybe the 2000 to 2015 period was a 500 year event, we just don't know. Problem is that people think what we had from 2000 to 2015 was normal.

Funny thing is, I keep thinking I see a pattern change coming, and it just keeps not happening. I really thought that right around the new year, we would see a turn to much colder pattern (trough in east) ridge in west, yet the newest runs show that ridge just keeps staying in the east. Now, (and it could change) I doubt there will be any real turn to winter like conditions east of the Mississippi and south of Quebec until at least after mid January (10th - 14th). By this time 50% of meterological winter is already over:



Maybe this is natures way of balancing things out? LOL

[Cambium]

One of the wettest Decembers on record around here.

Bridgeport, CT has over 8 inches which is a record for December. Records since 1948

My backyard December Precip Totals:

2016: 3.84"
2017: 2.17"
2018: 5.58"
2019: 5.15"
2020: 5.26"
2021: 1.58"
2022: 4.79"
2023: 7.76"


This December is the 4th wettest month in the past 4 yrs. Meaning, Only 3 other months were wetter out of the 50 previous months. (Since October 2019)

[beer belly]

Originally Posted by Cambium

2016: 3.84"
2017: 2.17"
2018: 5.58"
2019: 5.15"
2020: 5.26"
2021: 1.58"
2022: 4.79"
2023: 7.76"

Wow

[RoundTableKnight]

Unreal

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by simonusa3

I think another part of it is that most people (and I blame the weather media for this) have no real idea what is normal vs abnormal.

You mentioned a few posts back how the 2000 to 2015 was one that had one of the highest amounts of seasonal snowfall for many of the NWS Tri-State stations. 100% true. So if you believe that nature balances things out (I do)...maybe we are about to enter an equally long period of below normal snowfall? Maybe the 2000 to 2015 period was a 500 year event, we just don't know. Problem is that people think what we had from 2000 to 2015 was normal.

Funny thing is, I keep thinking I see a pattern change coming, and it just keeps not happening. I really thought that right around the new year, we would see a turn to much colder pattern (trough in east) ridge in west, yet the newest runs show that ridge just keeps staying in the east. Now, (and it could change) I doubt there will be any real turn to winter like conditions east of the Mississippi and south of Quebec until at least after mid January (10th - 14th). By this time 50% of meterological winter is already over:



Maybe this is natures way of balancing things out? LOL

The problem is, we're moving the goalposts of that balance a little upward. For example, contrary to popular belief, almost every year, even going back to the 1800s for stations like Central Park that go back that far we've had temps in 50s or more at least once during every winter month. But in say the 1800s we'd have a brief period of maybe 3 days of that and the rest of the month would be cold, sometimes bitter cold at levels we almost never see in recent decades (for example, it has not been less than -2 in NYC since 1943, but before that it happened once or twice a decade). Now it's kind of the reverse, not that every single winter day is in the 50s, but we usually have multiple periods of this and the cold shots, especially the real strong colds shots, are short and far apart (for example, last winter it was basically around Christmas for three days and a similar one in early February and that was really it).

The media does not explain the science well, fueling skeptics and making it seem like it's as simple as it's warmer all the time, when it's more like "it's warmer a lot more often". For example (and this actually fits perfectly with the science of increases in gases that trap heat), most of the warming is in nighttime lows. Yes we have more record highs more often than before, but average daytime highs have only gone up a little and almost border on whether they are statistically significant. Also there are places like Phoenix and Las Vegas whose average nighttime lows have gone up an incredible amount in the last 50 years (around 10 degrees!) and some (but not all) of that is that they are a much much bigger "urban heat island" now.

Put another way, the main issue with climate change is how hard it is to both fully prove and disprove. And the best way to do so is "wait and see what happens", but that could be a big gamble/risk.

[Cambium]

Heading to mid January with nothing being shown on the models as far as arctic air or snowstorms.

1.5 months left.

[Wilton2ParkAve]

Fantastic. Cold air kills far more than warm. Bring it!

[simonusa3]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

The problem is, we're moving the goalposts of that balance a little upward. For example, contrary to popular belief, almost every year, even going back to the 1800s for stations like Central Park that go back that far we've had temps in 50s or more at least once during every winter month. But in say the 1800s we'd have a brief period of maybe 3 days of that and the rest of the month would be cold, sometimes bitter cold at levels we almost never see in recent decades (for example, it has not been less than -2 in NYC since 1943, but before that it happened once or twice a decade). Now it's kind of the reverse, not that every single winter day is in the 50s, but we usually have multiple periods of this and the cold shots, especially the real strong colds shots, are short and far apart (for example, last winter it was basically around Christmas for three days and a similar one in early February and that was really it).

The media does not explain the science well, fueling skeptics and making it seem like it's as simple as it's warmer all the time, when it's more like "it's warmer a lot more often". For example (and this actually fits perfectly with the science of increases in gases that trap heat), most of the warming is in nighttime lows. Yes we have more record highs more often than before, but average daytime highs have only gone up a little and almost border on whether they are statistically significant. Also there are places like Phoenix and Las Vegas whose average nighttime lows have gone up an incredible amount in the last 50 years (around 10 degrees!) and some (but not all) of that is that they are a much much bigger "urban heat island" now.

Put another way, the main issue with climate change is how hard it is to both fully prove and disprove. And the best way to do so is "wait and see what happens", but that could be a big gamble/risk.

Agree 100% with it's not smart to have a "wait and see what happens" attitude. The powers that be should do what needs to be done to protect the fragile planet.


In the near term, I think no big changes until at least mid - January. I do think that it would be a long shot to get no snow at all this winter season. I think (?) there has never been a zero or even T (trace) season total at any of the 3 NWS stations in our area.

[WouldLoveTo]

Not complaining except it will be back loaded and then I will complain

This has got to be one of the wettest years on record?