[Cambium]

Mikes First guess. Isolated 16" in CT? I kinda like that 6"+ north of Merritt


https://twitter.com/MikeMasco/status...21926771466617

[simonusa3]

Originally Posted by RoundTableKnight

I'm not holding my breath. I've been duped far too many times trusting models multiple days out. If on Friday morning it's still looking like snow is coming, then I'll get excited.

I would agree.

These models will go back and forth all week. The only change since Saturday that I can see, is the models seem to be backing off on a more developed low south and east of us...to a weaker low closer to us. Who knows how that will change in the coming 5 days? Lol.

[Cambium]

Nws ny

deterministic and ensemble global guidance continue to agree on an
area of low pressure that will likely be close enough to us to bring
impacts. At this time, there`s still upwards of a 300 mile spread in
the track of the storm, but there`s growing confidence that the
storm center would pass to our se, perhaps near the 40n/70w
benchmark during sunday morning. Sensitivity appears to lie in
shortwave energy ejecting downstream from an aleutians low, then
rotating around a southern us upper low. This interaction might take
another day or two to become better-resolved by the raob network.

Enough confidence at this point to go with categorical pops for saturday night, but precip may begin by the end of saturday afternoon. Most of the precip is likely done by the middle of sunday morning. Too early to get overly specific with precip types and accumulations, but with that said, there`s a moderate probability of at least a plowable snow occurring across interior areas with a lower (but growing) probability at the coast. .

[simonusa3]

I guess this is the fun part, making predictions and then seeing what happens. My take:

Looking at the latest runs late this afternoon/early evening. it looks like there is going to be some problems with this system ever getting it’s act together ( at least the way it looks now). What stands out to me:

1 Some of the wild snow totals I saw on the Weather Channel (1 foot for some interior areas) seem like pure fantasy. The storm will be moving rapidly (in by late in the day Saturday - by early Sunday, the storm is long gone from Connecticut southward). No way it can put down that type of snow with the expected upper air pattern that fast. No way.

2) More and more this system is looking less like a deep wrapped up low. A few days ago we had a 988mb low near VA, now it’s 1005mb…et east of DE/MD. It’s keeps getting weaker.


3) A few days ago, the models depicted that cold high over southeast Canada to sit there for a few days and provide the cold air to keep the precip snow (almost a must for snow from Tri-State southward). Now, the latest runs keep moving this high more and more east. That’s a huge problem. Maybe some of the far inland areas will have enough cold air to get mostly snow (2 to 4 inches), but I would guess that the coast and coastal plain would be a mix to rain, or rain.

Here is the map of snow totals that look the most reasonable (the ensembles - so some members show zero snow some show 1 ft, so when you average it out this is what you get). What this really tells me is that more members are going on the low end and not the high end.







We’ll know more by Thru, but this is the way it looks now...

[Cambium]

And it begins... models saw this from 8 days away. Impressive consistency all this time. Finally



https://www.weather.gov/images/okx/w...alSnowWeb1.jpg

https://www.weather.gov/images/box/w...alSnowWeb1.jpg

[Cambium]

QPF:

Last 5 GFS runs for Bridgeport, CT

12z yesterday 1.20" (10-12" snow)
18z: 0.68" (5-7" snow)
00z: 0.44" (3-5" snow)
06z: 0.42" (3-5" snow)
12z: 0.93" (8-10" snow)

EURO

00z yesterday: 1.12" (10-12")
12z: 0.60" (5-7")
00z today: 1.55" (14-16")
12z: 0.84" (7-9")

[htfdcolt]

Just remember--it's not noteworthy until Cam creates a dedicated storm thread!

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

Just remember--it's not noteworthy until Cam creates a dedicated storm thread!

Ha. I missed a few storms because either busy or last minute changes to the upside. I only do it if its statewide 8"+. Wont do it if just Western CT is getting it.

I dont think this is gonna be thread worthy.. but with lack of posts in here I'm wondering if people in this forum are awake about it

[Cambium]

Latest Euro snow totals. Now that would be thread worthy. lol. 3-4 days away! Getting closer to crunch time. Models need to start agreeing now.



This is my general rule of thumb

7-14 days before:: we watch for the storm to keep showing up to be confident there is a storm in the region
5-6 days before:: we start watching for track and consistency of a model(s)
3-4 days before:: impacts, details like temp, wind, amounts, and timing of storm become more known
1-2 days before:: much better confidence on amounts and timing

[rach5]

What about that follow up wind/rain storm a couple of days after? Are we looking at power outages and flooding again in SNE?