[AntonioR]

There was no snow for Christmas, but it appears there will be plenty of snow for Three Kings Day. Too bad it isn't a major holiday in the US.

[Cambium]

Cold night tonight! Windy too. Feels like winter

[simonusa3]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

I think they are just covering their bases.....most have the precip being minimal after mid-morning Sunday.

Agree.

This way they can go with a winter storm warning if things go colder and south...or a winter weather advisory if things go closer and warmer. I think it's decent bet the coast of Connecticut will get the least in both scenarios.

What is interesting and will be fun to watch...is how CLOSE they think the line of snow vs no snow(rain) will be. If you believe their output Long Island gets less than 1 inch, but Hamden (18 miles north) gets 6 to 8 inches. LOL. Worse, ocean temps are 45 - 50 F, any wind of an east or southerly origin will bring in much warmer air. It will be interesting to see what happens. My guess is they won't update until late Friday until thy know for sure.

This is there predicted totals and their low end totals maps as of 3 PM...I think it will be between these two predictions the way it looks now :

[ProudFairfielder]

I'll bite.

I think this is going to be even harder than a normal forecast... the 12Z NAM has no idea where this thing will be. It picked the closest the coast track but still has voritcies further out, one even still at the 40/70 benchmark

TLDR

We'll have to wait and see

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by simonusa3

Agree.

This way they can go with a winter storm warning if things go colder and south...or a winter weather advisory if things go closer and warmer. I think it's decent bet the coast of Connecticut will get the least in both scenarios.

What is interesting and will be fun to watch...is how CLOSE they think the line of snow vs no snow(rain) will be. If you believe their output Long Island gets less than 1 inch, but Hamden (18 miles north) gets 6 to 8 inches. LOL. Worse, ocean temps are 45 - 50 F, any wind of an east or southerly origin will bring in much warmer air. It will be interesting to see what happens. My guess is they won't update until late Friday until thy know for sure.

This is there predicted totals and their low end totals maps as of 3 PM...I think it will be between these two predictions the way it looks now :

I've noticed that, I know that obviously there are snowstorms where the totals go up quite a bit as you go inland but not sure it would be that different in that short a distance. Like I can totally understand maybe an inch in LI meaning 3-4 in Hamden but not 6-8 or more.....

[AntonioR]

Isn't Hamden at a higher elevation than much of Long Island? (Unless the Hamden is another one outside of Connecticut.)

[JayCT]

Originally Posted by AntonioR

Isn't Hamden at a higher elevation than much of Long Island? (Unless the Hamden is another one outside of Connecticut.)

The high point on Long Island is Jayne’s Hill at 400.9 feet above sea level. Hamden’s elevation ranges from 10 feet below sea level to 879 feet above it.

[simonusa3]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

I've noticed that, I know that obviously there are snowstorms where the totals go up quite a bit as you go inland but not sure it would be that different in that short a distance. Like I can totally understand maybe an inch in LI meaning 3-4 in Hamden but not 6-8 or more.....

Agree.

Looking at what they did this morning, it looks like the had an idea the system would trend north, but there still should be a short time when some modest snow could fall and an area that could pick up 6 + inches. I guess they will just keep moving the rain/snow like deeper into Connecticut if need be. Still, thought it was a bit narrow of area to have that much of a gradient. This has been another nail biter right to the end.

[LINative]

Originally Posted by simonusa3

Agree.

This way they can go with a winter storm warning if things go colder and south...or a winter weather advisory if things go closer and warmer. I think it's decent bet the coast of Connecticut will get the least in both scenarios.

What is interesting and will be fun to watch...is how CLOSE they think the line of snow vs no snow(rain) will be. If you believe their output Long Island gets less than 1 inch, but Hamden (18 miles north) gets 6 to 8 inches. LOL. Worse, ocean temps are 45 - 50 F, any wind of an east or southerly origin will bring in much warmer air. It will be interesting to see what happens. My guess is they won't update until late Friday until thy know for sure.

This is there predicted totals and their low end totals maps as of 3 PM...I think it will be between these two predictions the way it looks now :

I am not sure, Hamden seems further than 18 miles north of Long Island. The Sound is like 20 miles wide plus Hamden is a bit further inland near the parkway.

In any case, distance from the water does increase snowfall totals. Long Island has water on both sides which cuts down snow, especially near the ocean. Sometimes it makes a noticeable difference, there are times we will get a few inches in Babylon near the shoreline and a few miles inland like Dix Hills or Smithtown will get half a foot.

The other thing that cuts down snow is development and population density. The more roads, buildings, driveways, patios, etc., the less snow will stick because of that heat island effect. It makes a difference and suburban Long Island overall is much denser than suburban Connecticut.

[simonusa3]

Originally Posted by LINative

I am not sure, Hamden seems further than 18 miles north of Long Island. The Sound is like 20 miles wide plus Hamden is a bit further inland near the parkway.

In any case, distance from the water does increase snowfall totals. Long Island has water on both sides which cuts down snow, especially near the ocean. Sometimes it makes a noticeable difference, there are times we will get a few inches in Babylon near the shoreline and a few miles inland like Dix Hills or Smithtown will get half a foot.

The other thing that cuts down snow is development and population density. The more roads, buildings, driveways, patios, etc., the less snow will stick because of that heat island effect. It makes a difference and suburban Long Island overall is much denser than suburban Connecticut.

NO doubt your right on both counts.

I'm 1500 feet from the beach and even within a few blocks you often see the difference in snowfall. Same goes for urban environments. However, the Hamden/New Haven area is pretty dense - the combined population like 250,000.