[Cambium]

Remember.. a Storm that goes towards the Great Lakes IS NOT a snowstorm for us. Its either gonna be torching warm with rain, or a cold rain or mixing issues.

Even coastal storms aren't always guaranteed a snowstorm.

4 Storms in 11 days. January 2024.

This is what you call an Active Pattern!

Coastal, Cutter, Cutter, Coastal

[Cambium]

Saturday will be in the 50s



Then....

Monday It will feel like 10s in CT. Blast is coming. Bet you it wont last long though. lol



Here's the NWS 7 day forecast for Danbury... This is why Storm #4 (Tuesday) will need to be watched. Fresh Arctic air will be present

[simonusa3]

As we approach mid-January, I often think of it as nearing half-time in the game of meteorological winter. (Dec 1 to Feb 28). On Monday the first 45 days of meteorological winter 2023/2024 are over….and 45 days now remain.


Looking at the upper air set up for the next 10 days - maybe 2 weeks..up in the arctic, higher than normal pressure from Iceland all the way to western Canada (1 on the map) is forecasted. This is basically the negative arctic oscillation signal (for those of you who follow teleconnections). So from roughly the Jan 13th to at least Jan 20th (give or take) we will have pretty deep negative arctic oscillation. The 2nd part is that there will be a STRONG negative tilt trough during some of this same time (#2). The flow will be directly from western Canada into much of the USA. So what does this mean? After this Sunday…it will get COLD. I guess this is not totally surprising, because we are now at the very bottom of the annual temp curve (average temps start to rise the last days of January). Still, COLD temps are on the way for the next 10 days after this weekend. I would guess any storms/precip that gets near us would snow…and ALL snow.




By January 22 – 24 (give or take)…the cold moves out, and we should see some type of a southwest flow setup and warmer temps (bottom map) that should carry us into early February. So expect (if the forecast holds?) a slightly warmer finish to January and perhaps the opening days of February.



It will be interesting.

[AntonioR]

Does anyone know what has been the average day time temperature during December 2023 in Connecticut? How does that compares with December 2022?

I always say if you can walk outside for more than a few seconds and you feel the need to put your hands in your pockets or wear gloves, it's too cold. Granted, even with 50F if their is some wind and you are walking say as an exercise in a park, your hands will get very cold and you either put thrm in your pockets, wear gloves or cut short the walk. This may not be apparent if the person is outside only to go from office building to the car, store to the car, house to the car if you have an unattached garage or park outside and vice versa. Anyone that spends some time outdoors even in 50F with wind will feel their hands get uncomfortable in a short time.

Then there is also how the temps feel, which often times it isn't what is the true temperature, There are 50F days that feel warmer and thrn other days will feel colder despite having the same temperature.

[Cambium]

GFS says Tuesdays snow wont be wet and heavy

[Cambium]

Rain starts Friday after 10pm. Should be over Saturday morning

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by Cambium

GFS says Tuesdays snow won't be wet and heavy

^so...dry and light?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

^so...dry and light?

Lol. Yup fluff stuff.

Btw.. Euro doesnt have the storm and Canadian is rain. So theres that. Let Saturdays storm pass then the models will know what to do with the atmosphere

Im just impressed models are picking up these storms 7-12 days before it happens. They must be picking up an active Pacific

[Cambium]

See it? They dont usually do this 6 days away



https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

[simonusa3]

NO doubt temps would be cold enough for snow by Tue/Wed next week.

As to where the low goes - NWS seems to not really know yet:


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
646 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will only briefly be in control as attention then
turns to a potential coastal low that looks to impact the area
sometime early to mid next week. Uncertainty remains with this
system, and model spread has actually increased with today`s 12z
guidance vs the 00z guidance. Although slight timing differences,
the GFS and Canadian are similar and closest to the coast with the
low. However, their ensembles are farther south and east. The latest
ECMWF is a big change from the previous run and shows a much weaker
low well offshore, leaving the area dry. This is the result of a
less amplified upper level trough and any energy out ahead of the
trough staying farther south off the southeast coast. Stuck
relatively close to NBM given the spread across guidance. PoPs are
capped at low end likely for the southern half of the area. Given
the cold air in place, taking a mean track between the ensembles and
deterministic guidance, excluding the ECMWF, precip type looks to be
snow across much of the area, with rain and/or snow across Long
Island. Did no want to jump on the ECMWF outlier yet, but this trend
will have to be monitored. At this time it is too early to talk
specific amounts. Behind this system, brief high pressure looks to
build in.