[Cambium]

Upgraded to Warnings. I don't know. Should we do a thread?

"Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 13 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour at times. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility"




241 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to
13 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, central, eastern,
northeastern and western Massachusetts and northern Rhode
Island.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible with
snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour at times. Areas of
blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
hazardous conditions will particularly impact the Tuesday
morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wet snow and gusty winds may result in
power outages.

[beer belly]

Why does it always seems to draw a line at I84 , living a mile from I84 always leaves me in limbo

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by beer belly

Why does it always seems to draw a line at I84 , living a mile from I84 always leaves me in limbo

Some coastal influence but mostly just because of where the storm is tracking. Since it mostly tracks off the coast the I-84 & Merrit always seem to be "the line".

Here is the Storm track. So close which makes for the heaviest snowstorms but a tough forecast

If that storm is a touch south of Delaware south of I84 will get more





NWS NY update shifted south a bit with the 8-12" and 6-8" line

[CTlibrarian]

Thanks for the updates! Seems like there is no way to know whether it will track more south or more north. Either way, too bad there’s not more cold air to give us a lighter, fluffier snow. ❄️☃️

[Cambium]

My God look at the current moisture feed from the Pacific and Gulf.

[beer belly]

Originally Posted by Cambium

My God look at the current moisture feed from the Pacific and Gulf.

Whoa

[CTlibrarian]

Why does it always seems to draw a line at I84 , living a mile from I84 always leaves me in limbo

Same here

[simonusa3]

Originally Posted by CTlibrarian

Thanks for the updates! Seems like there is no way to know whether it will track more south or more north. Either way, too bad there’s not more cold air to give us a lighter, fluffier snow. ❄️☃️

Agree.

I think this back and forth will go for the next 24/36 hours. NWS ups the snow output when the system trends south...then lowers it when the system trends north. Even NWS won't REALLY known until we are within a few hrs. Save to say those inland are expecting at least some snow...and those in the far south/coastal areas know the drill, a mix with wet snow/rain.

[simonusa3]

Originally Posted by beer belly

Why does it always seems to draw a line at I84 , living a mile from I84 always leaves me in limbo

Along the middle and upper Atlantic states annual snowfall is driven elevation and distance from the ocean to a great deal.

If you look at the map of annual snowfall from north to south, you can see how even in places like northern NY (in the Adirondacks) get more the the Hudson Valley. Look at New Hampshire, the northern high elevation areas get more than lower southern areas. Look at Mass, you can see how the lower Connecticut Valley gets less snow than higher points both to the west and east (except for the coast).

Further south, the coastal plain from Cap Cod south to southern New Jersey (including southern and eastern Connecticut) get less snowfall annually then points west and north inland. In Connecticut, topographically, southwest CT has higher elevation areas that extend closer to the coast than southeastern CT. Thus SW Connecticut averages less snow annually than SE CT. In our state, the higher elevation areas and lower elevation areas are roughly bisected by I-84. Thus, many folks south and east of I-84 get less snow...while folks north and west of I-84 get more.

Then add in the points to the south are more influenced by warm subtropical airmass than can easily pass over flat lower elevation areas along the coast/coastal plain, while cold air often hangs on longer in the hilly/MT areas of NW Connecticut. The storm on Tue is a great example, the warm air (rain/snow line) will have more trouble getting inland than along the coastal plain at least to some extent because of topography.

[Cambium]

Fyi... the reason this trended back south is because what is happening currently down south.. storms are firing up north of the warm front so its keeping the front south more hence the south trend for us. More snow



Deformation zone = puking snow