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Close in Ohio and Florida (Although less so in Florida). Sort of close in Pennsylvania, but still leaning well in Clintons favor. Not close at all in New Hampshire, Colorado, and Virginia. Trump needs to win Ohio, Florida,Pennsylvania in order to win the election. He also needs to hold North Carolina to make this work. It wouldn't be a necessity in the past for a Republican to win Pennsylvania but his poor numbers in Virginia and Colorado make it a necessity. Either that or he would need to poach off New Hampshire instead. The runs into some issues too since Clinton is really running ahead in the Nebraska 2nd which allocates one electoral vote to the winner. Although Maine has an electoral vote like that looks really good for Trump as well. Of course a tie breaker in the house would ensure Trump comes into office in a very weak position. Especially if Clinton won the popular vote
Sort of close in Pennsylvania ????????
In the most recent poll of Pennsylvania - done by NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist Hillary was ahead by 11%.
Since when is 11% - double digit lead - "sort of close." ????
Even if it isn't a real ABC URL people did vote. So there!
Also I guess you might be disappointed that the URL I posted didn't have the same anti-Trump numbers you're accustomed to by the left winged liberal media.
Holy sh*t, you are serious with this. Why would I be disappointed that a fake website has fake poll numbers?
Rank speculation but if it gets to the House, Trump will not be the President. The Republicans are too divided about him and will need Dems. It will be a Pub, but a compromise one. Anyway, a tie is only a mathematical possibility.
The 12th Amendment specifies that in case of a tie, the House and Senate only considers those who rec'd electoral votes:
Quote:
The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President,
... they shall make distinct lists of all persons voted for as President, and of all persons voted for as Vice-President, and of the number of votes for each, which lists they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate; The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted;--The person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed;
...if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President.
...The person having the greatest number of votes as Vice-President, shall be the Vice-President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed, and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President;
^^wildly exaggerated. We now have the new kindler, gentler Trump - so everyone needs to (and some will) forget the crude, boorish, backpedaling, prevaricating, bragging, namecalling, ADHD child we've seen to date. If Trump can keep up the act, many will fall for this because they really want to rationalize a vote FOR him - and up to this point were put off. Methinks even Nate's current prediction of 317 v. 221 is a bit on the long side.
Interesting that Sabato is predicting North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada are in Hillary's corner.
I'm not so sure of those predictions, but where I do agree with him is that Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania will go Democratic in November.
Location: In a little house on the prairie - literally
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clark Park
Interesting that Sabato is predicting North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada are in Hillary's corner.
I'm not so sure of those predictions, but where I do agree with him is that Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania will go Democratic in November.
538 seems to indicate the same though, so this is not a surprise.
Interesting that Sabato is predicting North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada are in Hillary's corner.
I'm not so sure of those predictions, but where I do agree with him is that Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania will go Democratic in November.
Of the states you listed, I'd say only VA and PA are solidly HRC. If she carries them and NH, it doesn't matter if Trump wins the rest, he's toast. The election will be called before the CST and MST states are in, much less the west coast.
It's just math, folks.
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Larry Sabato sees Clinton romp
