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Not really sure where they are getting that error rate of 5.1 from. RCP AVG for 2020 Biden had a +4.2 average according to this yet it shows Biden +7.2 on their projection page you linked for 2020. The error rate should be 1.4 for Biden in 2020.
They are looking at all the polls on RCP within the last 14 days, what is showing on RCP's site is just the last polls during the last few days. Now automatically assuming polls will be off the same way is not the strongest of methodology. It is certainly possible, but we really don't know.
They are looking at all the polls on RCP within the last 14 days, what is showing on RCP's site is just the last polls during the last few days. Now automatically assuming polls will be off the same way is not the strongest of methodology. It is certainly possible, but we really don't know.
Are they using 14 days of polling or just using the last poll Trafalgar showed a tie.
Are they using 14 days of polling or just using the last poll Trafalgar showed a tie.
In order to get the current adjusted poll margin they are taking the current RCP average and then adjusting it by the average the polls were off during the last 14 days of the last few election cycles. Note, the actual projection can differ slightly from the adjusted poll average they are using.
In order to get the current adjusted poll margin they are taking the current RCP average and then adjusting it by the average the polls were off during the last 14 days of the last few election cycles. Note, the actual projection can differ slightly from the adjusted poll average they are using.
The current average is not 14 days of polling. They are taking 2016, and 2020 14 days of polling to get the error rate then comparing it with the current RCP average 10/12 to 10/23 which is 11 days.
With what she has done to MI, I don't see how she can possibly win. My brother still lives there, and I grew up there. I think many in MI are fed up with the liberal stance, so fingers crossed. I would even consider returning, if the liberals would all get kicked to the curb there!
Polls mean nothing, especially with what has transpired over the previous two years, and the Biden presidency.
Recently, there was a hint that Nate Silver himself might be starting to have doubts about his own models. In a podcast released on September 15, he was asked by Galen Druke about his assumption that we have no reason to assume the polls will keep overestimating the prospects of Democrats (about 34 minutes in).
Druke: What would have to happen for you to give up that prior?
Silver: If I were just convinced that the polls were systematically biased and that couldn’t be fixed, then I probably wouldn’t run a polling website anymore.
Druke: Interesting. But what would have to happen in the real world? What would be an indicator to you that there was a systematic bias? How many election cycles would we have to get through?
They are looking at all the polls on RCP within the last 14 days, what is showing on RCP's site is just the last polls during the last few days. Now automatically assuming polls will be off the same way is not the strongest of methodology. It is certainly possible, but we really don't know.
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