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Recent Chinese commentaries have flagged that “China’s close coordination and shared interests with Russia will also play a major role in potential rebuilding efforts in Afghanistan… In the Afghanistan situation, China and Russia have maintained close communication and have shared interests in peace and development in Afghanistan, which makes the two countries the main players and partners in Afghanistan’s rebuilding efforts, in stark contrast to the US’ intention to sow chaos in the country…”
“While China can play the leading role in carrying out specific projects with its building capabilities and funding sources, Russia can offer crucial support in such projects with its massive influence in both Afghanistan and the region in ensuring stability and security in the region. Experts said that China and Russia are among the countries that most sincerely want peace and development in Afghanistan, even as the US and some other Western countries continue to seek to undermine that.”
Massoud is using his father's legendary reputation and contacts with old mujahideen commanders to rally support for his cause. He also publicly pleaded with the US and other Western nations, urging them to provide weapons, ammo, and other support for his militia, pledging to fight against the Taliban. But his ability to gain momentum outside of his own tribe and pose a credible military threat to the Islamist movement remains in doubt.
Recent Chinese commentaries have flagged that “China’s close coordination and shared interests with Russia will also play a major role in potential rebuilding efforts in Afghanistan… In the Afghanistan situation, China and Russia have maintained close communication and have shared interests in peace and development in Afghanistan, which makes the two countries the main players and partners in Afghanistan’s rebuilding efforts, in stark contrast to the US’ intention to sow chaos in the country…”
“While China can play the leading role in carrying out specific projects with its building capabilities and funding sources, Russia can offer crucial support in such projects with its massive influence in both Afghanistan and the region in ensuring stability and security in the region. Experts said that China and Russia are among the countries that most sincerely want peace and development in Afghanistan, even as the US and some other Western countries continue to seek to undermine that.”
That's only natural and was expected.
I don't remember what's the story behind the current India/China animosity ( I believe I saw the reports about the skirmishes between the two on the Chinese-Indian border,) but at this point Russia is riding a high wave, with all these countries in the region looking at Moscow to negotiate/settle their differences/conflicts.
So for now Russia is in a good position.
But in the LONG RUN this situation is potentially dangerous for Russia as well, once all the players will decide that Russia is the only "foreign body" among them, being part of the Christendom.
They won't need Russia's " prestige and expertise" any longer at that point.
Here I see they explain in details, why there are a lot of bets/guesses about this resistance, mainly - because of the strategic position of the Pandsher Valley ( or rather gorge,) that connects Northern part of Afghanistan with the Southern part. What makes the region to be citadel-like in terms of repelling the attacks, the rout that it controls between Kabul and the second most important city in Afghanistan Mazar-i-Sharif and so on.
There at 3:21 they bring the old interview with the Soviet commander of the 40ieth Army, Igor Rodionov, who considered the battles in the Pandsher Valley to the most difficult part of the military operations out of his 9 campaigns.
The Soviets could never completely take over that particular region, precisely for the reasons the journalists described earlier.
So this currently plays to the opposition's advantage.
On another hand, the amount of ammunition that Americans left for Taliban ( they have now Black Hawks helicopters alone, more than 85% of other countries out there) leaves the opposition with diminished chance for success.
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Massoud is using his father's legendary reputation and contacts with old mujahideen commanders to rally support for his cause. He also publicly pleaded with the US and other Western nations, urging them to provide weapons, ammo, and other support for his militia, pledging to fight against the Taliban. But his ability to gain momentum outside of his own tribe and pose a credible military threat to the Islamist movement remains in doubt.
Well Massoud actually doesn't belong to a "tribe," but rather an ethnicity, since he is Tadjik from what I understand, and Tadjikistan ( with all its population) is right across the border.
From what Zhirinovsky the Bozo was saying, a lot of Tadjiks ( and Uzbeks) ended up across the border, in Afghanistan, as the result of their refusal to accept the new Soviet power that took over the former Russian empire, so they simply retreated across the border at the beginning of the previous century.
He might be right about that one, since Zh. is the Orientalist - that was his major in the University.
So basically Tadjics ( and Uzbeks) are part of the Afghan population, along with some other tribes that don't belong to the Pushtun majority ( about 52% of population,) that represent and support Taliban.
And all this of course breeds the never-ending internal conflict.
The problem is that the history from the 70's and 80's doesn't apply to Panjshir. The Taliban doesn't rely on helicopter gunships, tanks, and heavy armored vehicles that were targeted by rebels armed with American-supplied shoulder-fired missiles. The Pashtun control the government now, and they're not working with them on government resistance. The south is part of Pashtunistan. They won the war that followed the war against the Russians because the Northern Alliance is essentially a loose collection of tribal militaries.
Iran is reporting helicopter air drops of weapons and supplies to Panjshir originating from Tajikistan. Denial below, but Russia would know as their militaries have joint exercises.
The salience lies in the acceptance of the Taliban government as a compelling reality by Washington. Rhetoric aside, the US is already engaged with the Taliban in a constructive spirit. The US’ major allies Germany and France are also doing the same.
Simply put, the ostracisation of the Taliban government is no longer an option — except in the highly unlikely event of the Taliban resiling from its commitments under the package deal.
From the Taliban’s point of view, this is an eminently satisfactory deal. The Taliban has a consistent record of keeping its commitments to the Americans. Even after the Doha Pact of February 2020 began unravelling, Taliban kept its word on the single most important assurance under the agreement — namely, that it would not attack the US forces. And it did keep its word even in the face of all those ferocious air strikes by the US in the recent months contrary to its assurance to the Taliban.
Have to remember that the US provided financial support to the Taliban in the 90's and praised them for bringing order to the country emerging from a civil war after the withdrawal of the Russians.
( So that's why I didn't want to mention in details all these Umayyad and Abbasid Khalifats, going back in history, while referring to the Islamic civilization.
Because it wouldn't quite explain the essence of it, unlike this concise presentation made by a woman from the part of the world, that is too close for her comfort to this very Islamic civilization.)
I wouldn't go by ISIS, Al Qaeda, and other groups as representative of Islam. Those are mercenary forces supported by foreign governments. Might want to google Timber Sycamore, the operation to funnel arms to the 'jihadists'. When that was shut down, the US set up fake 'moderate' rebels and sent them into the battlefield to transfer vehicles, arms, and supplies to ISIS and other groups. Their social media accounts during the Iraq and Syria war were traced back to Britain, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and other foreign governments. Their propaganda literature was produced by ad agencies under contract to the defense departments. The beheadings, rapes, throwing off gays off buildings, and other acts were stage-managed to incite the Western public to support intervention in the wars on humanitarian grounds. At the same time, these crimes were being committed by criminals that were sent to the war zones by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Britain, France, Belgium, and other countries (several European ministers boasted publicly of arranging their recruitment and documentation for transit to Syria).
There are a lot of people extremely susceptible to conspiracy theories and the global jihad conspiracy theory is about as big a conspiracy theory as one could get.
You have to remember that the US was asked to leave Iraq in 2013 and the US and Britain sought legal authorization to wage war against Syria that same year which was rejected by their legislatures. Russia also was blocking any move to bring a war resolution in the UN Security Council after they felt they were lied to in Libya. The West amplified the coverage on ISIS since the public was unsympathetic to an appeal to wage war to bail out the Free Syrian Army. So the public appeal turned to going in there to fight a bad guy that was manufactured by the US and its allies.
The problem is that the history from the 70's and 80's doesn't apply to Panjshir. The Taliban doesn't rely on helicopter gunships, tanks, and heavy armored vehicles that were targeted by rebels armed with American-supplied shoulder-fired missiles. The Pashtun control the government now, and they're not working with them on government resistance. The south is part of Pashtunistan. They won the war that followed the war against the Russians because the Northern Alliance is essentially a loose collection of tribal militaries.
They won the war that followed the war against the Russians, because
A. They were financed and manned with the help of the near-by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia ( that in turn has financial ties to US,)
and B.
Because by the sound of it, both powers - the Great Britain and the Russians were looking at Massoud Senior as the key figure to stability in Afghanistan, acting as a shield against the radical Islam of the Saudi kind, promoted by Taliban.
Massoud Senior himself, the key figure of the "Northern Alliance", being originally the "mujaheddin" as well, was first fighting AGAINST the Russians ( as the occupants of his country.)
And at the same time -
"Britain's MI6 having activated long-established networks of contacts in Pakistan were able to support Massoud and soon became their key ally. MI6 sent an annual mission of two of their officers as well as military instructors to Massoud and his fighters."
(So no wonder then why his son received the education in London.)
I guess Massoud Senior had to learn the lesson the hard way - once you side with the Islamists against the Soviet-induced policies, you fail and end up dead anyways.
But with time, even Massoud Senior started seeing the light ( and had his doubts apparently,) and that's why he offered help to his enemy, ( yet another key figure in Soviet-backed Afghan government, ) someone Mohammad Najibullah who was later tortured and killed by yet another "Islamic movement" - Taliban that rose to power with the help of Pakistan and ultimately - financing of the Saudi Arabia.
So if you wish - the original "mujaheds" supported by the US against the Soviets, had two essential parts to them; one - represented by the likes of Massoud Senior, with the "subdued form of Islam," and the Taliban, promoting the radical Islam of the Saudi variety.
The problem is, that both the MI6 and the Russians were/are trying to reach out to the same force (i.e. Massoud,) as essential component to Afghanistan's stability, and anti-radical Islamist force.
At the end Massoud agreed to negotiate with the Russians in the early 2000ies, after they apologized for the previous invasion.
It was too late though, because Bin Laden and his ilk ( who was promoting the interests of the radical Islam ( the Saudi kind) in Afghanistan, and who had personal animosity towards Massoud, assassinated him two days before the September 11.
P.S. I finally see now where India' support falls into all this ( which is only logical).
They supported Massoud Senior for the same reason - as a solution to put a stop to Islamic radicalism in Afghanistan (sponsored by Pakistan,) perceiving Massoud Senior as a key figure for that;
"After Pakistan had funded, directed and supported the Taliban's rise to power in Afghanistan, Massoud and the United Front received some assistance from India.[120] The assistance provided by India was extensive, including uniforms, ordnance, mortars, small armaments, refurbished Kalashnikovs, combat and winter clothes, as well as funds.[121] India was particularly concerned about Pakistan's Taliban strategy and the Islamic militancy in its neighborhood; it provided U.S.$70 million in aid including two Mi-17 helicopters, three additional helicopters in 2000 and US$8 million worth of high-altitude equipment in 2001."
So that's another piece of the puzzle, that falls in nicely.
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Iran is reporting helicopter air drops of weapons and supplies to Panjshir originating from Tajikistan. Denial below, but Russia would know as their militaries have joint exercises.
In order to support the anti-radical forces in Afgahnistan ( read anti-Taliban), one has to have bases/operational military force in the neighboring "stans" - Tadjikistan first of all.
So while Massoud Junior is asking the West (London first of all) for help, those areas are under the Russian control.
And Russians won't let Western military bases in their backyard. ( See Ukraine 2014.)
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The salience lies in the acceptance of the Taliban government as a compelling reality by Washington. Rhetoric aside, the US is already engaged with the Taliban in a constructive spirit. The US’ major allies Germany and France are also doing the same.
Simply put, the ostracisation of the Taliban government is no longer an option — except in the highly unlikely event of the Taliban resiling from its commitments under the package deal.
From the Taliban’s point of view, this is an eminently satisfactory deal. The Taliban has a consistent record of keeping its commitments to the Americans. Even after the Doha Pact of February 2020 began unravelling, Taliban kept its word on the single most important assurance under the agreement — namely, that it would not attack the US forces. And it did keep its word even in the face of all those ferocious air strikes by the US in the recent months contrary to its assurance to the Taliban.
"Taliban" is not some unified power/structure as well; it has at least three different wings, represented by different leaders. ( Russian Orientalists are quite specific about that.)
It's unclear so far what fraction of Taliban will prevail - the most radical one or not.
That's why Russians are taking "wait and see" approach for now.
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Have to remember that the US provided financial support to the Taliban in the 90's and praised them for bringing order to the country emerging from a civil war after the withdrawal of the Russians.
What I am discovering now as well, is that Great Britain and the US didn't ( still don't) see Afgahnistans' policies eye to eye.
So today's sharp disagreement and condemnation of US move in British parliament is not something that popped out of nowhere.
The other thing is that Panjshir finds itself land-locked by governments and tribes that are working with the Taliban. They will find it difficult to supply a resistance movement at all.
The Taliban won the civil war and the Northern Alliance fell apart without the Soviet Union able to provide support. The West and the other nations will work with the government of Afghanistan (Taliban) to some extent in the aftermath.
All government are in talks with the Taliban. They realize that they have leverage since Afghanistan and Pakistan are quite poor now. It would be huge if India saw the light and worked on stopping its own sponsorship of terrorism, such as ISIS-Khorasan aka Pakistani Taliban aka Tehrik-i-Taliban, in conjunction with Pakistan.
You posted a video from right-wing Indian conspiracy theory site. They had videos on Soros and the global order, mysterious waves aimed at US embassy, and son on.
The other thing is that Panjshir finds itself land-locked by governments and tribes that are working with the Taliban. They will find it difficult to supply a resistance movement at all.
The Taliban won the civil war and the Northern Alliance fell apart without the Soviet Union able to provide support. The West and the other nations will work with the government of Afghanistan (Taliban) to some extent in the aftermath.
See, the "Northern Alliance" came to existence AFTER the Soviet Union already disappeared.
We are talking about the period of 1996-2001 here.
So it was the NEW ( and corporate) Russian government, that was already trying to negotiate with Massoud Senior, since the Islamic threat/narco traffic hailing from Afghanistan didn't go anywhere, as far as Russia was concerned.
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All government are in talks with the Taliban. They realize that they have leverage since Afghanistan and Pakistan are quite poor now. It would be huge if India saw the light and worked on stopping its own sponsorship of terrorism, such as ISIS-Khorasan aka Pakistani Taliban aka Tehrik-i-Taliban, in conjunction with Pakistan.
Now that I finally figured out where India fits into all this ( and no, it was not sponsoring the radical Islam as you were trying to present,) I'd like you to present the LOGICAL thought, why such country as India would be interested in sponsoring the radical Islam ( such as ISIS.)
I am all ears.
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You posted a video from right-wing Indian conspiracy theory site. They had videos on Soros and the global order, mysterious waves aimed at US embassy, and son on.
See, you keep on pointing at Islam ( and Islamic states,) as some kind of conspiracy "created by the CIA, Soros", and god knows who else.)
And that's how it's probably perceived through American outlook on the world.
But in reality Islam ( and Islamic civilization) is much, much older than America ( US) itself. ( Or do you think the Crusades were part of "conspiracy" too?
( The Crusades were a series of religious wars initiated, supported, and sometimes directed by the Latin Church in the medieval period. The best known of these Crusades are those to the Holy Land in the period between 1095 and 1291 that were intended to recover Jerusalem and its surrounding area from Islamic rule.)
The Islamic Caliphates ( states) governed by Islam were pretty mighty back in the day, challenging the Christendom, so the idea of the Islamic takeover of the world is not a "conspiracy" - it's something old that keeps on popping up on the surface over and over again, and for a good reason with about 2 billion ( or whatever,) muslims in the world, and the fastest growing religion as far as I remember.
That's first.
And second - I could refute some of the statements made by the presenter in that Indian Wion video, but I am just not interested in it at this point.
And yes, I posted a video that they made on Soros as well earlier, since it was very informative for Americans in particular.
Because his money ( and influence) are barely noticeable in the US, yet in Eastern Europe his money and power are overreaching.
Whether this Indian site is "right-wing" or "left-wing," makes no difference to me.
What "elite"?
What "elite" exactly are you talking about?
No we are not the "apes," and we are all different - our cultures, our historic backgrounds and so on.
At least where the "Old World" is concerned.
But from the "New World" point of view, all this of course is cancelled out ( all the differences,) and repackaged.
So things of course are seeing differently from the US, but it's precisely this "repackaging" and dismissal of the fine details of the old world that brings Americans to such failures in the Middle East, one after another.
Again - what "civilization" are we talking about?
Because "civilizations" are very different, as I already pointed out.
The Taliban wants its model to be established within the framework of Islamic civilization.
Which is quite different from the Western one, always has been.
Talibs are not looking at the US ( or Germany) as their blueprint, but they look rather at Saudi Arabia/Iran or Pakistan.
And even from this point of view Taliban 0.2. already differs from the Taliban 01.
Russians are pointing out that these latest Talibs are already successfully operating the American Black Hawk helicopters (generously provided for them by you know who. )
They are aware that they need the economy ( and investments) to run their state.
(They are looking at the Chinese for that, obviously.)
They understand the politics/interests of the near-by countries, that they are trying to pacify/reassure (at least for now.)
And with all that of course they understand that they need to retain as much educated/professional people as possible.
I am talking about their "management" of course - people that are claiming to be in charge.
As for the "field commanders" and those in the regions - that's the whole different story.
I really think we will never hash this out. I am educated in sciences, physics, mechanics, anthropology, history, evolution and warfare. You just look at the world differently, more spiritual and even with mysticism. A good dose of Russian stubbornness mixed in.
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