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Old 08-16-2021, 06:31 AM
 
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Turkey's Erdogan goofed up royally. His plan to ingratiate himself with Biden by offering to occupy Kabul airport annoyed Taliban. Turkey would have had a pride of place & will now be in dog house for a while. India closed down its embassy. All the governments who were supporting terrorist groups inside Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia are on the outs, while the Taliban has made explicit promises to Iran, Russia, and China to control the border crossings.

Afghans cling to USAF transport plane as it taxis runway

https://twitter.com/BhadraPunchline/...15415134941189

If they want to liberalize Afghanistan, concentrate on the cities and bring technological change to the countryside. A lot of the old cultural practices are carried over in rural agricultural communities. Modernize agriculture and a lot of the families will move to the cities to find work. About 70 percent of the population live in rural villages and farm or tend to herds.
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Old 08-16-2021, 10:27 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lchoro View Post
You just need to go look at the history where the Daoud and Saur tried to impose land social reforms.

The Communists announced a revolution — they called it the “Great April Revolution,” like the October Revolution in Russia. They passed two decrees to turn the coup into a revolution. The first was land reform — the land would be taken from the landlords and given to the sharecroppers. In many areas the government had no means of enforcing land reform, but in Helmand, where the boys had shouted “Death to the Khans” from their soapbox, the local Communists began taking the land and redistributing it.

The second was the abolition of the bride-price payments given by a groom’s family for the bride’s hand. These were substantial sums, usually two to five years income for a household. More important, bride-price stood in everyone’s eyes as a sign of the subjection of women.

The relations between men and women were not the sexist caricature we are familiar with now from Islamophobic propaganda. In villages, perhaps four or five families out of two hundred kept their women in seclusion, allowing them out only in enveloping burqas. In most poor households women had to work in the fields with the men. But if the oppression of women was not as portrayed today, it was real enough, as it was in other countries. The Communists were determined to change all that. The decree on bride-price was largely formal in effect, though in some areas girls were encouraged to dance in public.

The measures on land and marriage ignited a rebellion led by local mullahs. The mullahs were not the same as the Islamists of the Brotherhood. Those were educated men, engineers, and theologians. The mullahs were mostly poor villagers, schooled just enough to read Farsi and recite the Koran in Arabic. They were treated with disdain by the elite. But they had a history of leading popular resistance.

...

The Communists did have real support in the cities. In the free elections held before Daoud seized power in 1973, they had won most of the seats in Kabul. They had support among school children, university students, civil servants, and others in the big cities. In an overwhelmingly rural country, this wasn’t enough.

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2018/05/a...t-intervention

That's all on the Afghans and their "left radicals," them being the third world country and NOT understanding how far they could push.
Although Russians were guilty of the radicalism back in the 1917 themselves, with time they realized what should and should not be done, when it comes to the rural population in particular.

They already had the wisdom of "do no harm," and their approach to the whole Afghan situation at that period was as following;"


"Though the new regime promptly allied itself to the Soviet Union, many Soviet diplomats believed that the Khalqi plans to transform Afghanistan would provoke a rebellion in a deeply conservative and Muslim nation.[111] Immediately after coming to power, the Khalqis began to persecute the Parchamis, not the least because the Soviet Union favored the Parchami faction whose "go slow" plans were felt to be better suited for Afghanistan, thereby leading the Khaqis to eliminate their rivals so the Soviets would have no other choice but to back them.[118]


...Following the Herat uprising, the first major sign of anti-regime resistance, General Secretary Taraki contacted Alexei Kosygin, chairman of the USSR Council of Ministers, and asked for "practical and technical assistance with men and armament". Kosygin was unfavorable to the proposal on the basis of the negative political repercussions such an action would have for his country, and he rejected all further attempts by Taraki to solicit Soviet military aid in Afghanistan.[127] Following Kosygin's rejection, Taraki requested aid from Leonid Brezhnev, the general secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union and Soviet head of state, who warned Taraki that full Soviet intervention "would only play into the hands of our enemies – both yours and ours". Brezhnev also advised Taraki to ease up on the drastic social reforms and to seek broader support for his regime.[128]


See, unlike the American left, Russians of the later Soviet period ( as Russians of pre-1917) were not adhering to the "politically-correct" notion that "all people are the same," and "skin color is just a hue."


They were looking at the world in its all complexity, giving a significant consideration to people's ethnic background, history, difference in mentality, and even the temperament.

They were well-aware that what work for some, would absolutely not work for others.
With other words, being the "old worlders" themselves, they were "finely tuned" to the differences.

And THAT"S WHY they should have been left alone when dealing with Afghanistan, because they looked deep into the whole structure of the society, they were well aware of the fragmentation of it, and who followed what beliefs.

They were building their alliances carefully, sifting through different leaders and their followers, looking for the ones they could back up, turning their movement ( and beliefs) into the backbone for the rest of the society. After all, the Russians were in the area ( Central Asia/Caucasus) for centuries, and knew how to turn the things around. They were successful in that, as much as they could, taking in consideration constant hindering from the West.

And these are the skills that Americans are totally lacking, being the "New World" nation.

American approach to "change in the societal structure" in that part of the world was purely mechanical - "we'll train the army, we'll train the police by the known to us formulas," and then these forces "will protect the freedom that we gave to the society."
But what kind of "freedom," and why would anyone in that society want the kind of "freedom" that Americans brought to them, was none of American concern or consideration.

Because after all, it was yet another third world country, the "unwanted colony," that needed to be "managed accordingly," and not more than that.

And that's what brought about today's crushing end.

And that's precisely what one of the military instructors in Afghanistan ( and Iraq) who used to train their armies is describing in this article, while reflecting on today's fiasco.

"But from my tours in Iraq through to my time in Afghanistan, larger systemic problems were never truly addressed. We did not successfully build the Iraqi and Afghan forces as institutions. We failed to establish the necessary infrastructure that dealt effectively with military education, training, pay systems, career progression, personnel, accountability—all the things that make a professional security force...

We borrowed untrained personnel from mostly administrative assignments and largely had them focus on tactical tasks, reporting progress in colorful bubble charts... "

( So utterly American, makes me chuckle somewhat.)

And the last but not least -

"We didn’t send the right people, prepare them well, or reward them afterward. We rotated strangers on tours of up to a year and expected them to build relationships, then replaced them."

And THIS latter alone, makes a big difference with Shoygy ( being in charge of the Russian military,) bringing those Syrian kids to Moscow for a sightseeing.

They want the "relationships" with people in that part of the world, that they guard. And they BUILD these relations, because they are well-aware of who is who over there.

So that the atrocities of the radical Islam wouldn't be spreading further, which would have inevitably happened, if Americans would have been allowed to succeed, supporting the "freedom fighters" in Syria yet again.

Last edited by erasure; 08-16-2021 at 11:41 AM..
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Old 08-16-2021, 01:49 PM
 
Location: Russia
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This is terrible organization of evacuation from Afghanistan.
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Old 08-16-2021, 02:01 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Maksim_Frolov View Post
This is terrible organization of evacuation from Afghanistan.

I am not sure WHO is in charge of all that, but this is definitely a display of incompetence for everyone to see.
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Old 08-16-2021, 02:20 PM
 
Location: Seattle WA, USA
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Any word on how Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are reacting to the Taliban take over? (Tajiks make up the second largest ethnic group in Afghanistan at 21.3%), I heard that Tajikistan is planning on accepting 100,000 refugees. Hopefully Tajikistan won’t fall to Islamic fanatics like it almost did back in the 90s. Hopefully with it being integrated into the Eurasian Union Tajikistan’s economy will improve and be a safe haven for Persian/Iranic people who don’t want live under sharia law.
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Old 08-16-2021, 07:02 PM
 
9,511 posts, read 5,434,021 times
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Originally Posted by erasure View Post
I am not sure WHO is in charge of all that, but this is definitely a display of incompetence for everyone to see.
No one ever thought the government would fall as quickly as it did. Nobody, even the most pessimistic estimates were it would take at least 90 days, not two weeks for the Taliban to kick in the doors of Kabul. It shows just how out of touch, incompetent and ignorant all the Afghan and NATO intelligence was. I think there's an element of dereliction of duty and lack of due diligence here too.

Not to mention every Afghan outside of Kabul seems to have known this would and even wanted this to happen. I doubt the intelligence services had even a small clue just what Afghans thought and even now are thinking. I suspect the people are getting ready for a hard time because it's yet to be seen whether or not the new authorities can govern the country.

Whether or not the Taliban can control things will be key.
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Old 08-16-2021, 07:41 PM
 
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Do a deal with the Taliban or flee

https://www.unz.com/pcockburn/do-a-d...acing-afghans/

It's been rumored that the Doha talks involved such a peaceful transfer agreement above all parties and the Taliban were in Kabul early in the weekend to arrange for another such transfer.

Some of the US news sources talked of fierce battles over control of some of the cities, but that turned out to be a lie.
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Old 08-16-2021, 09:09 PM
 
9,511 posts, read 5,434,021 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lchoro View Post
Do a deal with the Taliban or flee

https://www.unz.com/pcockburn/do-a-d...acing-afghans/

It's been rumored that the Doha talks involved such a peaceful transfer agreement above all parties and the Taliban were in Kabul early in the weekend to arrange for another such transfer.

Some of the US news sources talked of fierce battles over control of some of the cities, but that turned out to be a lie.
I heard something akin to this being all arranged beforehand too, it explains the speed of this change. It seems a lot of major players were left in the dark about it.

There's a lot of Afghan aircraft landing in Uzbekistan and Tadjikistan along with several thousand Afghan airmobile troops with their helicopters.
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Old 08-16-2021, 09:19 PM
 
Location: Russia
1,348 posts, read 623,888 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scrat335 View Post
No one ever thought the government would fall as quickly as it did. Nobody, even the most pessimistic estimates were it would take at least 90 days, not two weeks for the Taliban to kick in the doors of Kabul. It shows just how out of touch, incompetent and ignorant all the Afghan and NATO intelligence was. I think there's an element of dereliction of duty and lack of due diligence here too.

Not to mention every Afghan outside of Kabul seems to have known this would and even wanted this to happen. I doubt the intelligence services had even a small clue just what Afghans thought and even now are thinking. I suspect the people are getting ready for a hard time because it's yet to be seen whether or not the new authorities can govern the country.

Whether or not the Taliban can control things will be key.
Boomerang sometimes tends to come back

"Watching how brave Afghans fight against modern military equipment with the simplest weapons is a real inspiration for everyone who loves freedom. Their courage teaches us the most important lesson – there are things in this world that are worth protecting. I say to the people of Afghanistan – we admire your heroism, your dedication to freedom, your ongoing struggle against your oppressors."

(c) Ronald Reagan
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Old 08-17-2021, 05:45 AM
 
9,511 posts, read 5,434,021 times
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Prototype IL 112 crashes. Engine failure. All aboard dead.

https://www.rt.com/russia/532266-ily...kubinka-crash/
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