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Old 05-17-2023, 10:57 PM
 
Location: charlotte
615 posts, read 536,419 times
Reputation: 502

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Duke Energy is moving all of its employees from 3-4 buildings. It is consolidating them into their new tower that just opened. Wells Fargo moved thousands from an older Wells Fargo building into the building that Duke is vacating. That building is a relatively new building. The older Wells building that is being vacated is no longer Class A space. It will be upgraded to meet new criteria to meet Covid protocols such as more distance between employees and more recreational opportunities within the buildings. I just read in the Charlotte Business Journal that the Chicago developer is moving forward with its planned development.

There are other high rises that have companies that will move their employees to the new Class A space that meets the new protocols. Plus new companies have been continuing to move to downtown Charlotte. We will see if that continues as we move into the recession. But what is happening in Charlotte is some of the older buildings are being vacated and companies are moving their employees to the newer buildings that meet Covid protocols. These buildings came on line since Covid hit. The older buildings will sit vacant until they are upgraded. Usually Charlotte’s vacant office space is among the lowest in the nation. But recently it has spiked up pretty high due to several new office towers that have come on line in recent years and the older buildings are sitting vacant.

I went back to my Charlotte Business Journal article that I just read the other day. I am quoting directly from that article dated May 16, 2023- “Chicago developer Riverside Investment and Development Company is breaking ground this week on its mixed use project Queensbridge collective. The development will include a 42 story, 750,000 SF office building and a 45 story multi family tower with about 400 apartments.” This being built just acros I277 in South End. This development will bridge downtown ti south end.

Downtown Charlotte delivered on 4.9 million SF of office space in 2021. The office vacancy rate in all of Charlotte is 12.72 percent. That is very high forCharlotte.

In 2022, the forecast for the Charlotte office market was stated as - “the future of the Charlotte office market looks promising. This can be attributed to the positive outlook for the city’s economy, which will continue to drive demand. The current rate of growth will likely drive more investors. Although space needs are increasing and tenant demand is high, there is still a lack of quality space available. The office market in Charlotte is one of the most active in the country. Charlotte has become increasingly known as a place where real estate investors can thrive.”

I think some markets may convert high rise office to residential. But that is not the case in Charlotte. Companies are expected to continue to move to downtown Charlotte with needs for office. This may be slowed a bit by the upcoming recession. We will see how much. Brian Monniyhan stated recently that he expects a mild recession in 2023.

The experts expect the downtown, midtown, and south end office markets to continue to thrive and expand in the short term and long term. Since other markets around the US and world are slow since Covid, developers are coming to Charlotte from cities across the US and some developers from foreign countries.
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Old 05-17-2023, 11:23 PM
 
Location: charlotte
615 posts, read 536,419 times
Reputation: 502
Mr Big summing this up for you, I would say that in most markets there is virtually no demand for new towers. But in Charlotte and Austin and maybe a couple others, there is still demand. I know that you are from Raleigh. Raleigh and Charlotte are different markets. Downtown Raleigh only has 48k employees. That is very small for CSA of 2.1 million. It is even more remarkable when we consider that it is the state capital. Downtown Charlotte has 120k employees. DT Charlotte added 8.5 million SF of downtown office space from 2010-2020.

However, I do agree that office construction is way down. Most cities have a glutton of office space.
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Old 05-18-2023, 06:57 AM
 
3,082 posts, read 4,852,030 times
Reputation: 1954
Quote:
Originally Posted by uncchgrad View Post
Over the past decades, UNC and Duke have been the cash cows for the ACC, and as with any for profit organization, you cater to the cash cows in order to keep that gravy train going. Even if that means pissing off other, less important, members of that organization. That's how it normally works in business, whether right or wrong. In the old days, Virginia, Maryland, Clemson, etc. accepted that reality, even if they did not like it or agree with it.

Several things in recent years have changed these dynamics. One is that UNC and Duke are no longer winning consistently like they did in the past. The big money follows winners. Another issue is that the ACC has grown and now has institutions that are not in favor of catering to the status quo that has long existed within the ACC. That good ole boy system is not going to work with many of these non southern schools. They want their fair piece of the pie and are not interested in relenting to any other member institution.

Of course there are other issues that are negatively impacting the ACC and its future, such as TV deals, but I believe that the two aforementioned problems are at the core of the problem. If the big schools that are the face of the conference are not winning on a consistent basis, that will ultimately lead to a failed conference, or at minimum, a great loss of prominence.
TV $$$ is football TV $$$

The ACC screwed itself when it let Penn State go to the B1G back when they were in discussions with Florida State.

This thing has been decades in the making. Big football schools had more value since 1984.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archi...-f7bcc702b0c9/
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Old 05-18-2023, 08:11 AM
 
Location: Raleigh
377 posts, read 203,632 times
Reputation: 370
Quote:
Originally Posted by The QC View Post
Mr Big summing this up for you, I would say that in most markets there is virtually no demand for new towers. But in Charlotte and Austin and maybe a couple others, there is still demand. I know that you are from Raleigh. Raleigh and Charlotte are different markets. Downtown Raleigh only has 48k employees. That is very small for CSA of 2.1 million. It is even more remarkable when we consider that it is the state capital. Downtown Charlotte has 120k employees. DT Charlotte added 8.5 million SF of downtown office space from 2010-2020.

However, I do agree that office construction is way down. Most cities have a glutton of office space.
LOL Charlotte doesn't live in a bubble. There is office construction currently underway now in downtown Raleigh, as well as the North Hills area, but these projects were planned, financed and started before the downturn hit. It is very difficult to obtain office construction financing anywhere today and Charlotte is no exception. The problem with Charlotte (as well as other similar cities) is that more is being constructed than is needed, and the big banks consolidating into fewer buildings is not a good sign for the market. Companies nationwide are looking to reduce their office footprints, as some type of WFH is here to stay.

Converting older vacant office towers is extremely difficult and expensive, and often times impossible. Many of them will remain mostly empty and will contribute to the glut of space on the market.

In DT Raleigh, several planned projects incorporating large office space components are being redesigned to reduce or eliminate the office portion. Most stuff coming out of the ground currently, and in the near future, will be residential.
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Old 05-18-2023, 08:21 AM
 
Location: Raleigh
377 posts, read 203,632 times
Reputation: 370
Quote:
Originally Posted by The QC View Post
Mr Big summing this up for you, I would say that in most markets there is virtually no demand for new towers. But in Charlotte and Austin and maybe a couple others, there is still demand. I know that you are from Raleigh. Raleigh and Charlotte are different markets. Downtown Raleigh only has 48k employees. That is very small for CSA of 2.1 million. It is even more remarkable when we consider that it is the state capital. Downtown Charlotte has 120k employees. DT Charlotte added 8.5 million SF of downtown office space from 2010-2020.

However, I do agree that office construction is way down. Most cities have a glutton of office space.

According to a recent (March 2023) WCNC article about the DT Charlotte market:

Hybrid work and high interest rates are creating lots of turmoil for office owners, leaving many empty buildings throughout Uptown Charlotte. The number of vacancies is expected to double as more loans default and more buildings hit the market later this summer.

"A lot has happened in a short period of time," Barry Fabyan, a marketing director with commercial real estate firm JLL, said. According to Fabyan, the number of vacancies in Uptown is at a historic level. Nearly 2.5 million square feet of buildings are deserted and almost 5 million square feet are at risk of going vacant. "I feel there are several at-risk buildings that are already in that situation and more to come," Fabyan said.
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Old 05-18-2023, 08:50 AM
 
1,203 posts, read 1,051,586 times
Reputation: 729
Can another thread be made for this office space discussion that isn't within the stratosphere of relevance to the ACC thread? It's like someone responded in the wrong thread and conversation took off.
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Old 05-18-2023, 10:46 AM
 
Location: Raleigh
377 posts, read 203,632 times
Reputation: 370
Quote:
Originally Posted by HRVT View Post
Can another thread be made for this office space discussion that isn't within the stratosphere of relevance to the ACC thread? It's like someone responded in the wrong thread and conversation took off.
Agreed. Sorry for straying off topic. Regarding the ACC, they are spending big at the Amelia Island Ritz, trying to figure out if they will remain intact, or relevant, in the next two or three years. My guess is that they will not. Moving the HQ is pointless.
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Old 05-18-2023, 10:59 AM
 
1,203 posts, read 1,051,586 times
Reputation: 729
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Big View Post
Agreed. Sorry for straying off topic. Regarding the ACC, they are spending big at the Amelia Island Ritz, trying to figure out if they will remain intact, or relevant, in the next two or three years. My guess is that they will not. Moving the HQ is pointless.
The relocation way too little way too late. Swofford was operating the ACC like it was still the 90s. Getting Miami and VT in 2004 was HUGE. But the conference did absolutely nothing to parlay that move into anything else.

BC evened things at 12. I don't think Pitt and Syracuse were particularly necessary. Without that move, the ACC could have plugged Pitt in to replace Maryland instead of getting stuck with Louisville. Cuse is a drag on the league. BC has become a drag on the league. But Wake Forest has always been a drag on the league.

And the interest in the league was never going to reach SEC/Big 10 levels. But Swofford hampered the ACC's progress even further by ensuring his son's company had a piece of media rights.

Not to mention failing to put adequate focus on football. That mistake has allowed the SEC in particular to lap the ACC in football and put extra funds towards basketball where the SEC has been on the verge of overtaking the ACC as well.

Football has always driven the bus and I'm not sure Swofford ever embraced that truth.
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Old 05-18-2023, 01:02 PM
 
3,082 posts, read 4,852,030 times
Reputation: 1954
Quote:
Originally Posted by HRVT View Post
The relocation way too little way too late. Swofford was operating the ACC like it was still the 90s. Getting Miami and VT in 2004 was HUGE. But the conference did absolutely nothing to parlay that move into anything else.

BC evened things at 12. I don't think Pitt and Syracuse were particularly necessary. Without that move, the ACC could have plugged Pitt in to replace Maryland instead of getting stuck with Louisville. Cuse is a drag on the league. BC has become a drag on the league. But Wake Forest has always been a drag on the league.

And the interest in the league was never going to reach SEC/Big 10 levels. But Swofford hampered the ACC's progress even further by ensuring his son's company had a piece of media rights.

Not to mention failing to put adequate focus on football. That mistake has allowed the SEC in particular to lap the ACC in football and put extra funds towards basketball where the SEC has been on the verge of overtaking the ACC as well.

Football has always driven the bus and I'm not sure Swofford ever embraced that truth.
On the verge?

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketba...net-conference

This rating has its metrics and you can dispute them if you want, but they are not to favor anyone over anyone else.

In 2023 SEC was 3rd, ACC was 7th
In 2022 SEC was 3rd, ACC was 5th
In 2021 SEC was 2nd, ACC was 5th

SEC is clearly ahead of the ACC in overall college basketball. One or two good teams in the tourney doesn't make the whole conference better.

FWIW, the B1G was 1st, 2nd and 1st so there is that. The Big 12 is always in the top 3 as well.
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Old 05-18-2023, 02:41 PM
 
1,203 posts, read 1,051,586 times
Reputation: 729
Quote:
Originally Posted by HP91 View Post
On the verge?

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketba...net-conference

This rating has its metrics and you can dispute them if you want, but they are not to favor anyone over anyone else.

In 2023 SEC was 3rd, ACC was 7th
In 2022 SEC was 3rd, ACC was 5th
In 2021 SEC was 2nd, ACC was 5th

SEC is clearly ahead of the ACC in overall college basketball. One or two good teams in the tourney doesn't make the whole conference better.

FWIW, the B1G was 1st, 2nd and 1st so there is that. The Big 12 is always in the top 3 as well.
I hadn't looked at all of the numbers in a while and not all tell quite the same tale but yes, the SEC has been better of late. However I don't know if there's enough data yet to say that this is clearly a permanent shift and not simply cyclical.

But semantics aside, we generally agree. The ACC is in trouble (put more bluntly: the ACC is doomed... just a matter of time) and even their perceived top asset (basketball) has slipped mightily.
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