Are we about to become the #1 hotspot in the U.S.? (Houston: transfer, cost of)

[mkwensky]

Originally Posted by bu2

Well that is the typical parabola pattern, sharp rise, gradually turning down and then a sharp downturn.
Maybe people are making good choices again so it isn't rising anymore.

But we can end up spending weeks on the plateau we're on. This is also partially dependent on the other counties of the state getting a handle on their situation too.

[bu2]

Originally Posted by mkwensky

But we can end up spending weeks on the plateau we're on. This is also partially dependent on the other counties of the state getting a handle on their situation too.

We'll see. Hopefully it starts to go down before schools open.

[GHETTAOLAO]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/45131b8...hs-remain.html

[fnh]

Houston's Texas Medical Center key takeaways for July 16th:

1. Yesterday 2,661 people tested positive for COVID in the greater Houston area. Over the last week TMC averaged 1,776 cases per day, representing more than 4x the numbers observed during the previous peak in April.

2. Yesterday 337 new COVID patients were hospitalized in TMC institutions, compared to a month ago when the daily average (June 15-21) was 186 new patients per day.

3. As of July 16, TMC ICU bed configuration and staffing under non-pandemic configuration is FULL, and the TMC is 19% into Phase 2 plans for intensive care.

Direct link to TMC source: https://www.tmc.edu


Meanwhile, today a group of 100+ Houston doctors took the extraordinary step of publishing an open letter pleading for Rep. Dan Crenshaw (Houston TX-2) to stop spreading disinformation.

Link to letter: https://www.documentcloud.org/docume...-Crenshaw.html

[Pine to Vine]

Originally Posted by GHETTAOLAO

https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/45131b8...hs-remain.html

But statistics take on a different picture when you plug in actual population numbers. Even if the death rate in the US is a mere 1%, that means over 3 million Americans die. In addition to the personal toll on individuals and their loved ones, 3 million Americans dying would decimate the economy.

That’s why we don’t want the virus to impact every American. Instead, we want to smash the numbers here and triage local surges so that our viral rates resemble those of the European countries and Canada, which are currently largely open and enjoying life. This will take political will and the commitment of Americans to wash their hands, wear masks and socially distance. Sadly, I see nothing that encourages me to believe the politicians and a significant swath of Americans will sacrifice in this manner.

We have crushed our curve in Philly through hard work. We seem to have plateaued around 100 new cases each day and declining and a rolling 7 day average of 5 deaths/day, slightly rising in the past few days from 2/day. NYC as you'll note, with 8 million residents, experienced no deaths one day this week. Here in Philly, we still haven’t opened indoor dining, gyms and other intimate settings. This is what it takes to get the numbers we now have. You have to guess whether Houstonians are willing to make a sacrifice like this. Otherwise, your plateau, when reached, will be considerably higher than 5 deaths/day.

I wish I thought that was possible. If only Texans lost a gamble and contracted covid, I would not be the least bit happy. But I would simply acknowledge the current lack of willpower there and the consequences. I’m concerned, however, about people from hot spots traveling here where I live and undoing the hard work we’ve put in.

[bu2]

Originally Posted by Pine to Vine

But statistics take on a different picture when you plug in actual population numbers. Even if the death rate in the US is a mere 1%, that means over 3 million Americans die. In addition to the personal toll on individuals and their loved ones, 3 million Americans dying would decimate the economy.

That’s why we don’t want the virus to impact every American. Instead, we want to smash the numbers here and triage local surges so that our viral rates resemble those of the European countries and Canada, which are currently largely open and enjoying life. This will take political will and the commitment of Americans to wash their hands, wear masks and socially distance. Sadly, I see nothing that encourages me to believe the politicians and a significant swath of Americans will sacrifice in this manner.

We have crushed our curve in Philly through hard work. We seem to have plateaued around 100 new cases each day and declining and a rolling 7 day average of 5 deaths/day, slightly rising in the past few days from 2/day. NYC as you'll note, with 8 million residents, experienced no deaths one day this week. Here in Philly, we still haven’t opened indoor dining, gyms and other intimate settings. This is what it takes to get the numbers we now have. You have to guess whether Houstonians are willing to make a sacrifice like this. Otherwise, your plateau, when reached, will be considerably higher than 5 deaths/day.

I wish I thought that was possible. If only Texans lost a gamble and contracted covid, I would not be the least bit happy. But I would simply acknowledge the current lack of willpower there and the consequences. I’m concerned, however, about people from hot spots traveling here where I live and undoing the hard work we’ve put in.

CDC's most recent best estimate is 0.26% die who catch it.

The western European countries other than Germany have much higher death rates than we do.

New York has a death rate nearly double that of Belgium, the worst country in the world (not counting micro states like the Channel Islands). Its death rate is 13 times that of Texas. Pennsylvania has nearly 4 times the death rate of Texas. Sweden never shut down AT ALL and has 1/3 the death rate of New York and a lower death rate than Pennsylvania.

Every estimate shows that when you re-open, cases go up. No true expert thinks you can stop the virus, only slow it down.

Your whole post is based on a bunch of false assumptions.

[bu2]

Originally Posted by fnh

Houston's Texas Medical Center key takeaways for July 16th:

1. Yesterday 2,661 people tested positive for COVID in the greater Houston area. Over the last week TMC averaged 1,776 cases per day, representing more than 4x the numbers observed during the previous peak in April.

2. Yesterday 337 new COVID patients were hospitalized in TMC institutions, compared to a month ago when the daily average (June 15-21) was 186 new patients per day.

3. As of July 16, TMC ICU bed configuration and staffing under non-pandemic configuration is FULL, and the TMC is 19% into Phase 2 plans for intensive care.

Direct link to TMC source: https://www.tmc.edu


Meanwhile, today a group of 100+ Houston doctors took the extraordinary step of publishing an open letter pleading for Rep. Dan Crenshaw (Houston TX-2) to stop spreading disinformation.

Link to letter: https://www.documentcloud.org/docume...-Crenshaw.html

This is an example of the lies and misleading statistics we are told. If you look at the TMC site, they are at only 52% of total capacity. So you can talk all you want about Phase 2, but it is misleading.

There is reason to be concerned, but not reason to be scared. We are constantly lied to by the media in order to generate viewership or push an agenda.

[Pine to Vine]

Originally Posted by bu2

CDC's most recent best estimate is 0.26% die who catch it.

The western European countries other than Germany have much higher death rates than we do.

New York has a death rate nearly double that of Belgium, the worst country in the world (not counting micro states like the Channel Islands). Its death rate is 13 times that of Texas. Pennsylvania has nearly 4 times the death rate of Texas. Sweden never shut down AT ALL and has 1/3 the death rate of New York and a lower death rate than Pennsylvania.

Every estimate shows that when you re-open, cases go up. No true expert thinks you can stop the virus, only slow it down.

Your whole post is based on a bunch of false assumptions.

Here’s the truth: Like “fake news,” “false assumptions” aren’t those you don’t like.

Other than to point that out, I don’t see your “head in the sand” outlook as worth acknowledging further.

In fact, I’ve said all I care to in this thread. I’ll close by saying I hope Houston and Texas summon the political will to confront your covid crisis. The rest of the country will be affected by your misery if you can’t.

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by Pine to Vine

Here’s the truth: Like “fake news,” “false assumptions” aren’t those you don’t like.

Other than to point that out, I don’t see your “head in the sand” outlook as worth acknowledging further.

In fact, I’ve said all I care to in this thread. I’ll close by saying I hope Houston and Texas summon the political will to confront your covid crisis. The rest of the country will be affected by your misery if you can’t.

Well, he’s right about the true death rate, but wrong that our rate is lower.

[mkwensky]

Originally Posted by bu2

This is an example of the lies and misleading statistics we are told. If you look at the TMC site, they are at only 52% of total capacity. So you can talk all you want about Phase 2, but it is misleading.

There is reason to be concerned, but not reason to be scared. We are constantly lied to by the media in order to generate viewership or push an agenda.

I don't see anything misleading about what was said. Also I think your math needs work. If you divide the current occupancy of 1400 by the total Phases 1, 2 and 3 beds of 2210 beds total you get 64%, not 52%. Being in Phase 2 is not exactly a crisis, but neither is it a sustainable state. Hospitals needs to cannibalize resources to sustain the extra level of intensive care and non covid operations and procedures need to be delayed. This had nothing to do with regulations or fear - they just don't have the resources to do it.

Also I'm not sure why you're obsessed with pointing out the low death rate in Texas. The only possible reason I can think of is to defend the policies made at the state level.