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Welcome to September! The average peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic and it shows:
Tue 3Sept2019 8aED/AST, 7aCDT, 5aPDT, 2aHST: Central Pacific:
Quiet, models hint something small may form well S of SW of Hawaii next 10days but don't bring to Hawaii. E Pacific:
-See Juliette thread.
-All quiet otherwise, will be watching near SW Mexico coast for anything to try and develop down the road. Atlantic:
-See Dorian thread.
-PTC7 (Potential Tropical Cyclone 7) declared in W Gulf of Mexico, likely next named storm soon, heading towards Mexico just S of Texas border. PTC's are declared when there is very high confidence it will be named and allows cone map and tropical watch/warnings to be issued in advance providing valuable preparedness / lead-time. Lacking closed LLC (Low level of circulation) but it's close, winds estimated 35-38mph. High pressure over south central US will steer it Westward away from US Gulf coast. NHC forecast has it reaching max winds of 45mph before moving inland. Tropical Storm winds may reach Mexico coast by Wednesday morning. Could see some rain/storms clip SE Texas...mid-morning Euro says up to 1-2in extreme SE TX (Brownsville / McAllen region), while GFS has 3 to 5inches, all in the late tonight into Friday time frame. Less rain N of there.
-invest 91L well W of Cape Verde islands off NW Africa at high 90% chance of formation, most model guidance steers it off away from any land NW / N into N Atlantic.
-invest 92L just South of Bermuda at medium 40% chance formation next few days, has until maybe Thursday to become something then conditions unfavorable for development. Rain around 1in or so, and breezy conditions near/to Bermuda. Out to sea.
-Invest are just designations given to disorganized blobs that have the potential to one day develop for tracking/communication purposes.
-Next system moving off NW Africa soon. Already NHC has 60% chance of formation on it by late this week/into weekend as generally moves W / WNW. Will be watching these waves as they roll off for signs of development.
Wed 4Sept2019 mid-day:
C Pacific:
-Small system quickly popped up about 1,085miles(1,745km) ESE of Hawaii overnight. Quickly organizing, now Tropical Depression 12E, named soon, overall moving W to WNW this week. Expected to stay S of Hawaii. High wind shear between it and Hawaii so if it has other plans it won't be feeling too well.
E Pacific:
-See Juliette thread and note above
Atlantic:
-See Dorian, Fernand & Gabrielle threads.
-invest 92L near Bermuda 50% chance formation as heads away, about out of time to develop.
-area coming off Africa with 60% chance development as tries to cross the Atlantic, not a lot of model support past something weak at the moment.
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