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Sun 11Aug2019 8pEDT/7pCDT/5pPDT/2pHST: Central Pacific:
Disorganized showers well S of Hawaii with low 30% chance of formation, heading west. East Pacific:
-Showers near S tip of Baja at 60% chance of formation, NHC says if development trend continues then Tropical Depression or named Tropical Storm may be declared soon, moving WNW, conditions unfavorable by Tuesday though.
-Disorganized showers well SW of Mexico heading out to sea at 50% chance formation next 5-days. Atlantic:
All quiet. Only thing I see on models next 2-weeks is occasional hint of something weak trying to form off VA/NC & Bermuda then zipping out to sea and occasional very brief small blips at random places in Gulf of Mexico but nothing definitive.
GFS by itself for now. Euro still has barely a hint of something weak maybe trying off NC/VA or Bay of Campeche within the next 10-days but EPS % chance is still less than 35% at best on those areas for a Tropical Depression. Getting into mid-August so definitely time to keep an eye on all areas though! Huge SAL plume out over the Atlantic currently...that's shut down tropical activity for likely another week or more between Caribbean & Africa.
Wed 14Aug2019 evening: Looking at models the Euro ensembles support chance of scattered showers / moisture throughout good portion of the US Gulf coast but not a lot actually support developing something tropical. Ones that do go with weaker Tropical Depression / Storm with only one stronger at the moment. We'll see if more of it's members jump on board overnight or not. Still talking about a week, give or take, away.
Thurs 15Aug2019 morning: Looks like Euro backed off slightly but still several of its models showing the possibility of something coming up from S Gulf of Mexico late next week.
Reading around on the inner-webs looks as if a CAG - like structure (Central America Gyre) or something resembling one at least, over Central America may be what models are picking up on. CAG's can spit out tropical systems in the W Caribbean, Bay of Campeche, or E Pacific. https://twitter.com/webberweather/st...34813499514883
Hope something pops up soon. I would love a Cat 1.
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