[Dport7674]

Originally Posted by BBMW

The actual infection wouldn't cause the supply chain to collapse. The panic based disruption of commerce (people not going to work), would cause supply chains to collapse.

"Panic based disruption of commerce" hasn't happened in modern history. Didn't happen in King county, WA. last week.

Workers taking turns missing work due to a fairy harsh chest cold is what we'll see happen.

[CosmicAries]

Just going to Costco is a mad house.

[BBMW]

They (whoever "they" are) are shutting things down in a vain attempt to stop the spread of the virus. The shutdowns will hit the economy. The virus will keep spreading.

Originally Posted by Dport7674

"Panic based disruption of commerce" hasn't happened in modern history. Didn't happen in King county, WA. last week.

Workers taking turns missing work due to a fairy harsh chest cold is what we'll see happen.

[longviewJoe]

Originally Posted by BBMW

They (whoever "they" are) are shutting things down in a vain attempt to stop the spread of the virus. The shutdowns will hit the economy. The virus will keep spreading.

Yup. This is my thought as well.

[OmegaSupreme]

Originally Posted by BBMW

They (whoever "they" are) are shutting things down in a vain attempt to stop the spread of the virus. The shutdowns will hit the economy. The virus will keep spreading.

It's not about stopping the virus at this point, it's about slowing the spread. Nothing wrong with that. The economy has to suffer one way or another.

[BBMW]

It doesn't have to. If the virus was just ignored, there'd be somewhat increased absenteeism at work sites for a while, but the economy would keep going. If they shut everything down that involves people being within virus transmitting range of each other, the economy is going to collapse.

Originally Posted by OmegaSupreme

It's not about stopping the virus at this point, it's about slowing the spread. Nothing wrong with that. The economy has to suffer one way or another.

[wpcoe]

Originally Posted by wpcoe

A spike in demand now as folks fill their garages with toilet paper. But, once the fervor dies down and people start whittling down that stash in the garage, there should be a distinct drop in sales for a while, until the garages empty out. Over the long term it should even out?

Originally Posted by RationalExpectations

Think intertemporally. In the current time period, more is purchased, resulting in a short term spike in revenue to TP manufacturers.

In the next time period, once everyone realizes there is no need to personally stockpile TP in their garages, less is purchased (people consume the TP in their garages and do not replenish this inventory - they let it shrink to the pre-Coronavirus level), resulting in a short-term dip in revenue to TP manufacturers.

The spike and the dip average out to, well, the average TP consumption & hence the average TP revenue to manufacturers. From that point forward, TP revenue returns normal, as few who are infected by the Novel Coronavirus will have any incremental need for TP. It is a respiratory virus. It does not cause diarrhea. A small number of infected people will get a separate infection which might cause diarrhea, but that really doesn't change the big picture.

Thus, there is no long term economic reason to buy toilet paper manufacturers' stock.

Brilliant minds think alike. And, so do you & I!

[OmegaSupreme]

Originally Posted by BBMW

It doesn't have to. If the virus was just ignored, there'd be somewhat increased absenteeism at work sites for a while, but the economy would keep going. If they shut everything down that involves people being within virus transmitting range of each other, the economy is going to collapse.

Maybe that's a better solution, I don't know. What scares me is that you can get it again and again, the body doesn't necessarily build up immunity to it for very long if you've had it before.

So I don't disagree with world leaders banning travel to/from the most affected countries... maybe it will look stupid In few years, maybe it's all in vain.

[orca17]

Originally Posted by OmegaSupreme

What scares me is that you can get it again and again, the body doesn't necessarily build up immunity to it for very long if you've had it before.

Only if it mutates to the point that your current antibodies are not effective against it - the same reason that influenza vaccines are not effective for everyone. If you get a strain that isn't covered by the vaccine (it is impossible to cover all of them, so it usually just covers the most common or most virulent ones), you still get sick. Immunity doesn't disappear, however.

[nickydim]

Canada will be testing a vaccine soon, testing in the US since Feb 24th, human testing in a couple of weeks. There are a dozen other countries on the verge of their own. Surely one will be found that's safe and effective and will become part of required inoculations like small pox, except for the anti-vaxers, of course. Hopefully as the summer gets here this virus will behave like a virus and die down and by next virus season we have a vaccine in use.

There is way too much panic. It's not going to spread any more than the flu as it's transmitted the same way and with all this fear it will spread much much slower then the flu as there is unprecedented caution now that was never showed for the flu. This virus can be more serious for some. I'm 60 and certainly don't want it. I'll wash much more often, avoid close contact with strangers, and disinfect my surroundings more often. But I'll still shop daily and even visit the casinos.

I'm trying to show more caution and not more panic....trying.