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Anyone know how far along the building is in filling up CB?
so take this with a grain of salt bc im no statistician BUT i do work with numbers so i have some idea of what im saying here
there are 235 units available, 50% for CB so ~118
there are about 87k people in CB4, or 1.03% of NYC population
assuming a perfect distribution of applicants across the city, and uniform assignment of log numbers there would be ROUGHLY 1 CB applicant per 100 non-CB applicant
so assuming perfect distribution that would mean for every 100 log number, there would be 1 assigned to CB
so if we have 118 units going to CB, we would see log numbers up to approx. 11-12K
they are currently at log 6k-7k, so assuming that everything i said above is true and there are no gaps in log number, we are about half way through CB assuming every single person so far has been offered a unit and they accepted it.
you could go further (which i did one day when i was spiraling) and look at population to income, age, and family size to get a number to figure out where they likely are for your unit type and income level (1br/studio 100% AMI i predict they have filled 8) but its more work.
again, this isnt perfect. im not a mathematician and this doesnt include other factors such as applicants from outside NYC bloating numbers, unqualified applicants applying, income specific to the CB, and a slew of other factors. but this is my (very long winded) guess
anybody go and view the 1beds? Trying to see what it would look like, there's a ton of different floor plans on Streeteasy
Idk if the lottery apartments are vastly different but I actually went to see the building the other day and viewed the market rate 1 and 2 beds. I like the bigger floor plans more than the others, but the 1 bed with the little den/office area is pretty cool.
A lottery of this size, they are going to reach well over 11-12,000 in the CB.
Based on previous large lotteries in Manhattan I’d say they’re going to reach the 30-40k CB range.. if not higher
A lottery of this size, they are going to reach well over 11-12,000 in the CB.
Based on previous large lotteries in Manhattan I’d say they’re going to reach the 30-40k CB range.. if not higher
right, it depends a lot on the assignment of log numbers (i.e. if its sequential like 1, then 2, then 3, or if its random like 1, then 4, then 12 etc.) and also how many people are deemed ineligible/reject units.
i guess a better way to phrase what i was saying would be they will make it through 11-12 thousand log numbers, which very well could be up to 30-40K like you said since i believe log numbers are not sequential
The way its going I could potentially see up to 30k CB log numbers. Great estimate though. There are so many factors.
Some reasons it goes high up in numbers
people don’t want the paperwork hassle
Anyone applies whether or not they meet income guidelines
A decent amount of people deny the apartment for a number of reasons
Some forget after months and don’t respond
It makes me sad you cannot apply on hc2 website with various income, any changes you make affect all your applications. I know there are many that would disagree with me but if I am called for something and don't meet the req I don't go further. The truth is that these sometimes take so long to pull that my income, family make up can change b4 they reach out to me and I voila I am not eligable any longer. I say this from multiple experiences..
I liked that on HC1 I could apply for stuff outside of my brackets becasue I knew I would keep getting pay increases or a job with a better pay and it always seems I get called in for things now just after my income changes. I am constantly, no longer eligible. I do wish we could apply for various or if there was an option for projected income so that way I could apply for a variety and not just hear from things that finally reach out to me months/years later when I no longer am a match. OOh that wopuld be nice. One day
Location: Read the Marketing Handbook, and Income a Guide.
2,045 posts, read 1,662,422 times
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Entering a lottery w/o Income matching
Quote:
Originally Posted by Draconyte
It makes me sad you cannot apply on hc2 website with various income, any changes you make affect all your applications. I know there are many that would disagree with me but if I am called for something and don't meet the req I don't go further. The truth is that these sometimes take so long to pull that my income, family make up can change b4 they reach out to me and I voila I am not eligable any longer. I say this from multiple experiences..
I liked that on HC1 I could apply for stuff outside of my brackets becasue I knew I would keep getting pay increases or a job with a better pay and it always seems I get called in for things now just after my income changes. I am constantly, no longer eligible. I do wish we could apply for various or if there was an option for projected income so that way I could apply for a variety and not just hear from things that finally reach out to me months/years later when I no longer am a match. OOh that wopuld be nice. One day
‘Please note: Your household composition does not appear to match the eligibility requirements for this lottery. By continuing, you acknowledge that your application may be deemed ineligible.’
A person CAN enter a lottery on HC2 for a lottery where their income does not match the lottery. When this is done, a caution message results saying you are ineligible (see italics above), but they can apply anyway if you check the acknowledgment box,
‘ I have read and agree to the Housing Connect Terms and Conditions for Account Holders and Applicants ‘
If a person is anticipating a relevant change in income in the future they should enter.
Also, it’s not the applicant that determines if they are ineligible it the authorities. So, if an applicant see they are nearly eligible that might just apply anyway and see what the authorities say their income is. Decisions can be appealed.
Last edited by WildAboutHarry; 03-09-2023 at 01:38 PM..
Location: Read the Marketing Handbook, and Income a Guide.
2,045 posts, read 1,662,422 times
Reputation: 492
Quote:
Originally Posted by NY343
The way its going I could potentially see up to 30k CB log numbers. Great estimate though. There are so many factors.
Some reasons it goes high up in numbers
people don’t want the paperwork hassle
Anyone applies whether or not they meet income guidelines
A decent amount of people deny the apartment for a number of reasons
Some forget after months and don’t respond
Re ‘ deny the apartment for a number of reasons ’, the Rent is too high, and/or the apartment is too small. Just because it’s a lottery apt doesn’t always mean it’s a good value for each person who gets an offer for it. This would tend to be more so at higher AMI%.
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Entering a lottery w/o Income matching
